Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Film Predictions

The first "major" film nominations are announced tomorrow.  In years past the Golden Globes always announced their nominees first, but this year the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards are being announced first.  This award is a bit different because the "Best Picture" is Outstanding Performance by a Cast in Motion Picture.  Here are my predictions below:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniel's The Butler
Saving Mr. Banks

Beyond these five three other ensembles have a decent shot of showing up here: Blue Jasmine (Midnight in Paris was nominated here), Nebraska (the last two Alexander Payne films have made the cut), and The Wolf of Wall Street (Scorsese casts have done well here).  My 6th place would go to Blue Jasmine mainly because of the mix of film and television actors in the cast, then Nebraska then Wolf.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Lead Role
Bruce Dern-Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyer's Club
Robert Redford-All is Lost
Forrest Whitaker-Lee Daniel's The Butler

This was a tough call, I think the 5th spot is between Whitaker and Hanks.  Both have a strong fan base, Hanks as a producer/actor, Whitaker as a director/actor.  I think this is where you will see support for The Butler start to swell up.  Too close to call.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Lead Role
Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock-Gravity
Judi Dench-Philomena
Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks
Meryl Streep-August: Osage County

I am torn on whether Meryl can get a nomination once again, or if there is fatigue.  I think Amy Adams may be a strong spoiler.  I also think this will be a year for veteran winners in this category.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Bradley Cooper-American Hustle
Michael Fassbender-12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini-Enough Said
Tom Hanks-Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto-Dallas Buyer's Club

The toughest category to completely predict because beyond Leto, Fassbender, and Hanks I feel like I am grasping at thing air.  I think Gandolfini will make it into the race here, SAG is sentimental look at Jerry Orbach (although that was television), but Gandolfini was in both television and film regularly.  I think Cooper is vulnerable because he is a lead, but category fraud is in their MO, and American Hustle will be a big nominee tomorrow.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Lawrence-American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts-August: Osage County
June Squibb-Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey-Lee Daniel's The Butler

Another tough call, I think Squibb and Roberts are the weaker links here, but they make sense.  SAG nominees always seem cohesive to me, and they will honor a few nominees as stragglers, like Nicole Kidman, Kidman got nominated here mainly because of her name.  The same will help Roberts, along with her talent.

At the end the big winners from this day of nominations will be films who have either been no shows with the critics, Lee Daniel's The Butler, and Saving Mr. Banks, August: Osage County.  These three films will/should score 3 nominations a piece.  American Hustle will also get 3, maybe four if Amy Adams can crack Female Actor.  12 Years a Slave will have four.  I can see Hustle and Slave in a tie for the most nominations, do not be surprised if that is the headline tomorrow.

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