The list is of the top ten films is pretty predictable, but two films are surprisingly missing Lee Daniel's The Butler and Dallas Buyers Club. This list does not always perfectly match Oscar, but as years have moved forward they list has gotten closer and closer. The Butler missing out here is a blow, and Thursday's SAG nominations will be a sign if the film is moving forward or "done." This list of 2013 winners looks like a pretty close match on what to expect for Best Picture.
12 Years a Slave
Inside Llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
Here is a look at the past winners, what was missing, and how close it matched the actual Best Picture line-up: