Sunday, September 18, 2016

Emmy Predictions (2016) Will it be an HBO Sweep Again?

Image result for emmys 2016Tonight Jimmy Kimmell will host the Emmy Awards, and I hope he doesn't tousle a racist Presidential candidates hair.  I do hope he takes Fallon to task for this; he can set himself apart, which he has continued to do in many ways in the late night game, finally making ABC a contender after years of Leno v. Letterman.

Outside of the host this is the second year the Emmy Awards have had their new popular vote, with another new tweak, voters are no longer ranking the nominees, they are picking their favorite and voting for one show/person.  Since this system is new this could provide some surprises, this could also become a boring ceremony quickly.

One of the most interesting elements to pay attention to in this new system is whether or not there will be surprise winners, and vote splitting.  Last week at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards there were some surprises, especially in the Guest Acting categories, but those always happen.  More on those in a second, but the biggest surprise and delight was when RuPaul won for Outstanding Reality Show Host.  This was her first nomination, and she won for season 8, this rarely happens.  I hope this surprise makes its way to the main show.

I am going to use the Comedy Guest Acting winners to prove that vote splitting may be a reality.  In Comedy Guest Actor you had Larry David and Tracy Morgan from Saturday Night Live. My guess is that both had their supporters, which ciphered votes paving the way for Peter Scolari to win for Girls.  Scolari was a replacement nominee, and his win was surprising, especially since I thought Martin Mull would benefit from the Veep name check, but he did not.  I think this proves that people are not just going to pick actors because they are in the show they are voting for in Best Comedy, which is why I am not picking Anna Chulmsky. Scolari also had a good tape, which actors still submit, but I am not sure people are watching tapes anymore.  I am not sure if we will ever truly know if the tapes matter anymore.

Many Emmy predictors will use Outstanding Guest Actress winners Amy Poehler and Tina Fey to disprove my vote splitting theory.  They were up against Melissa McCarthy and Amy Schumer for SNL. My argument, albeit thin, is simply, if you looked at ballot and saw those two power house comedic women nominated as one do you think there was any competition?

It is a thing argument, but I am going to go with it to make my predictions this year, and if I am wrong, at least I was one of the few to predict RuPaul's win!

Outstanding Drama Series
The Americans
Better Call Saul
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
House of Cards 
Mr. Robot

Who Will Win: Game of Thrones, it won a record nine crafts Emmy Awards last week, and will become the most honored show at the Emmys

Watch Out for: The Americans, I think it could spoil in writing and acting, but not here yet.  With Thrones out of competition next year, if the show keeps up the quality, I think it will win next year.

My Vote: The Americans

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series 
Kyle Chandler-Bloodline
Rami Malek-Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys-The Americans 
Liev Schrieber-Ray Donovan
Kevin Spacey-House of Cards

One of the hardest categories to predict.  None of these men have ever won.  Spacey is the biggest name, and he has won SAG twice, which should mean that he is the obvious choice, but I'm not sure it's that simple.  Malek is the hot new star, but that rarely works, it took John Hamm until the last season of Mad Men to win. Odenkirk is also a strong option, the show has some consistent love, but it's not on the same level as Breaking Bad style love.  Then there is Liev Schrieber "a movie star" in a show with growing support, but is it enough to bump him to a win?  Kyle Chandler pulled off an upset for Friday Night Lights, but that was based on tapes as opposed to popularity.  Then there is Matthew Rhys who finally pulled off a nomination with growing support The Americans, especially in the acting branch, could he pull off the biggest surprise?

Will Win: Kevin Spacey-House of Cards. Anyone of these 6 men can win (obviously) but usually there are people you know will not.  I am going the safe route on this one, Spacey makes the most sense.

Watch Out for: Everyone else, but strongest are (in order) Rami Malek, Liev Schrieber, and Bob Odenkirk.

My Vote: Rami Malek-Mr. Robot

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series 
Claire Danes-Homeland 
Viola Davis-How to Get Away with Murder
Taraji P. Henson-Empire
Tatiana Maslany-Orphan Black 
Keri Russell-The Americans
Robin Wright-House of Cards

Like last year many are predicting this to be a race between Robin Wright and Viola Davis.  I think Kerri Russell is a strong third, but not this year.  

Will Win: Viola Davis-How to Get Away with Murder.  She has two SAG wins, is well respected, even if the show does not have any other love.

Watch Out for: Robin Wright, who has never won, and was the true star of season four.

My Vote: Keri Russell-The Americans

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series 
Jonathon Banks-Better Call Saul
Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones
Kit Harrington-Game of Thrones
Michael Kelly-House of Cards
Ben Mendelsohn-Bloodline
Jon Voight-Ray Donovan

No offense to the nominees, but this is the weakest category, based on tapes. Which makes this a harder category to predict.  This category also has many surprise wins like Ċ½eljko Ivanek for Damages, Petere Dinklage (first win), and Bobby Cannavale for Boardwalk Empire, but these were all based on tapes.

Last year in the first year of the popular vote we saw Dinklage win, he rode the Thrones victory train.  Will this happen again?  Does Kit Harrington being in this category help one of the other men?

Will Win:  Jonathon Banks-Better Call Saul.  I think the vote split will be real, and I am going out a limb on this one.

Watch Out for: Peter Dinklage, he is popular, and could get a third win, tying Aaron Paul.  I do think he and Harrington are both popular enough to split enough number one votes to help Banks, who has been nominated her for both Breaking Bad and Saul.  Jon Voight is a big star who could bank on name recognition

My Vote: Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones (I guess)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series 
Emilia Clarke-Game of Thrones
Lena Headey-Game of Thrones 
Dame Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey
Maura Tierney-The Affair
Maisie Williams-Game of Thrones 
Constance Zimmer-House of Cards

There is a chance that no one will be back in this category next year, wouldn't that be crazy? No Thrones, Abbey is gone.  Tierney and Zimmer could lose buzz.  With that said I think with three nominees the vote splitting will lead to many award show junkies are dreading...

Will Win: Dame Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey.  I think the vote splitting will happen here, and people will want to honor Abbey one last time, but Smith will not be there, so people will be upset Thrones woman does not win.

Watch Out for: Anyone else! This category is impressive.  My second ranked person is Maura Tierney, she is very popular (even if The Affair is not) and could be the person people pick.

My Vote: Maura Tierney-The Affair

Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series 
Will Win: Mr. Robot-eps1.0_ (also my vote)

Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series  
Will Win: Game of Thrones-Battle of the Bastards (also my vote)

As we move into Comedy, you will see less commentary, mainly because the top three categories, have little assessment that is needed.

Outstanding Comedy Series 
Master of None 
Modern Family 
Silicon Valley
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Will Win: Veep 

Watch Out for: Silicon Valley

My Vote: Master of None 

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series 
Anthony Anderson-Black-ish
Aziz Ansari-Master of None
Will Forte-Last Man Standing
William H. Macy-Shameless
Thomas Middleditch-Silicon Valley
Jeffrey Tambor-Transparent

Will Win: Jeffrey Tambor-Transparent

Watch Out for: Anthony Anderson-Black-ish

My Vote: Aziz Ansari-Master of None

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Ellie Kemper-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep 
Laurie Metcalfe-Getting On
Tracee Ellis Ross-Black-ish
Amy Schumer-Inside Amy Schumer
Lily Tomlin-Grace and Frankie

Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep

Watch Out for: Laurie Metcalf-Getting On (namely because she had three nominations this year)

My Vote: Ellie Kemper-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Louie Anderson-Baskets
Andre Braugher-Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Ty Burrell-Modern Family
Titus Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Tony Hale-Veep
Keegan Michael Key-Key and Peele
Matt Walsh-Veep

This is a category to watch out for, I think anything is possible, even Ty Burrell (but I would rank him last).  I think the two people out front are Tony Hale and Titus Burgess, with Louie Anderson and Matt Walsh as spoilers.  This is the first time Hale has had competition from his own show in this category, and it could hurt his chances.  With seven nominees here, anything is possible.  I think Matt Walsh has a solid amount of love, and will ciphen votes from Hale.  I am going out on a limb with this category...

Will Win: Titus Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt.  I think many people love him and this character, and the residual love from last year will help him finally win.

Watch Out for: As listed above Hale, Anderson, and Walsh in that order, but this is category that I would not be surprised to see an upset.

My Vote: Titus Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Anna Chlumsky-Veep
Gabby Hoffman-Transparent
Allison Janney-Mom
Judith Light-Transparent
Kate McKinnon-Saturday Night Live
Niecy Nash-Getting On

The easy pick here is Allison Janney for a threepeat, which is probably going to happen.  I could also see Chlumsky finally getting her due for Veep tonight.  I think this race is between them logically.  There is also a voice in my head that is saying scene stealers Niecy Nash and Judith Light could spoil.  Might as well go out on this limb.

Will Win: Niecy Nash-Getting On.  She got nominated last year, was in two shows, and is well liked by many.  I am willing to admit I may be wrong on this one, but I am going to have fun with this category, like supporting actor.

Watch Out for: Janney (she will most likely win), I can honestly see everyone but McKinnon and Hoffman winning.

My vote: Judith Light-Transparent

Outstanding Direction in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Transparent-Man on the Land 

Watch Out for and My Vote: Veep-Kissing Your Sister

Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series
Will Win: Master of None-Parents 

Watch Out for and My Vote: Veep-Mother

The most suspenseful, and best categories of the evening are the TV Limited Series/Movie Acting categories.  This is the first year where you could probably fill each category with 10 worthy nominees.  These will/could be the most exciting to hear announced so hold on to your seats.  Listed below is my predictions for each category.  I think you will see the wins spread between OJ, Fargo and The Night Manager

Outstanding Limited Series: The People v OJ Simpson

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie: Courtney B. Vance-The People v OJ Simpson

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie: Sarah Paulsen-The People v OJ Simpson

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series/TV Movie: Hugh Laurie-The Night Manager (watch out for this one, could Sterling K. Brown for OJ too)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie: Jean Smart-Fargo

Outstanding Direction in a Limited Series/TV Movie: Fargo-Before the Law

Outstanding Writing in a Limited Series/TV Movie: The Night Manager

Outstanding Reality Competition Program: The Voice

Outstanding Variety Talk Series: Last Week Tonight

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series: Inside Amy Schumer

Sunday, July 10, 2016

If I picked the Emmy Nominees (2016) ....

The Emmy nominations are coming out this week (July 14) and I tepidly excited.  In their new voting system there are more involved in the voting processes, which I think will just water down the nominees (and winners).  In an ideal world I would like to see at least some of my personal choices make the cut, but I will just put them right here:

Best Drama Series 
The Americans (F/X)
Better Call Saul (AMC)
The Leftovers (HBO)
Marvel's Jessica Jones (Netflix)
Mr. Robot (USA) 
Penny Dreadful (Showtime)
Transparent (Amazon) 

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Hugh Dancy-Hannibal (NBC) 
Rami Malek-Mr. Robot (USA)
Bob Odenkirk-Better Call Saul (AMC)
Matthew Rhys-The Americans (F/X)
Jeffrey Tambor-Transparent (Amazon) 
Justin Theroux-The Leftovers (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Shiri Appleby-UnReal (Lifetime) 
Carrie Coon-The Leftovers (HBO)
Viola Davis-How to Get Away with Murder (ABC)
Eva Green-Penny Dreadful (Showtime)
Krysten Ritter-Marvel's Jessica Jones (Netflix)
Kerri Russell-The Americans (F/X)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series 
Jon Bernthal-Daredevil (Netflix)
Alan Cumming-The Good Wife (CBS)
Jay DuPlass-Transparent (Amazon)
Michael McKean-Better Call Saul (AMC)
Christian Slater-Mr. Robot (USA)
David Tennant-Marvel's Jessica Jones (Netflix)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Gillian Anderson-Hannibal (NBC)
Regina King-The Leftovers (HBO)
Helen McCrory-Penny Dreadful (Showtime)
Maura Tierney-The Affair (Showtime)
Alison Wright-The Americans (F/X)
Constance Zimmer-UnReal (Lifetime)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama
Richard Armitage-Hannibal (NBC)
Josh Charles-The Good Wife (CBS)
Collin Donnell-The Affair (Showtime)
Vincent D’Nofrio-Daredevil (Netflix)
Ian McShane-Game of Thrones (HBO)
B.D. Wong-Mr. Robot (USA)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Melora Hardin-Transparent (Amazon)
Patti LuPonne-Penny Dreaful (Showtime) 
Natasha Lyonne-Orange is the New Black (Netflix)
Diane Rigg-Game of Thrones (HBO)
Liv Tyler-The Leftovers (HBO) 
Leslie Uggams-Empire (FOX)

Outstanding Direction in a Drama Series
The Americans-The Magic of David Copperfield v. The Statue of Liberty Disappears-Matthew Rhys (F/X)
Better Call Saul-Fifi-Larysa Kondracki (AMC)
Game of Thrones-The Winds of Winter-Miguel Sapochnik (HBO)
The Leftovers-International Assassin-Craig Zobel (HBO)
Mr. Robot- Arden Oplev (USA)
Transparent-Kina Hora-Jill Solloway (HBO)

Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series
The Americans-Persona Non Grata-Joel Fields, and Joe Weisberg (F/X)
Better Call Saul-Klick-Heather Morrison and Vince Gilligan (AMC)
Jessica Jones-AKA Ladies’ Night-Melssa Rosenberg (Netflix)
The Leftovers-Lens-Damon Lindelof and Tom Perotta (HBO)
Mr. Esmail (USA)
Transparent-Man on the Land-Ali Liebegott (Amazon)

Outstanding Comedy Series
Black-ish (ABC)
Broad City (Comedy Central)
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (CW)
Girls (HBO)
Master of None (Netflix)*
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
Veep (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Anderson-Black-ish (ABC)
Aziz Ansari-Master of None (Netflix)
Rob Delaney-Catastrophe (Amazon)
Tommy Dewey-Casual (Hulu)
Noah Galvin-The Real O’Neals (ABC)
Rob Lowe-The Grinder (FOX)

Outstanding Lead Actress in Comedy Series
Rachel Bloom-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (CW)
Sharon Horgan-Catastrophe (Amazon)
Abbi Jacobson-Broad City (Comedy Central)
Ellie Kemper-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep (HBO)
Gina Rodriguez-Jane the Virgin (CW)
Tracee Ellis Ross-Black-ish (ABC)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Louie Anderson-Baskets (F/X)
Titus Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
Jaime Camil-Jane the Virgin (CW)
Andrew Rannells-Girls (HBO)
Sam Richardson-Veep (HBO)
Mel Rodriguez-Getting On (HBO)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Yael Grobglas-Jane the Virgin (CW) 
Jane Krakowski-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
Jennifer Lewis-Black-ish (ABC)
Donna Lynne Champlin-Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (CW)
Niecy Nash-Getting On (HBO)
Allison Williams-Girls (HBO)

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy
Christopher Abbott-Girls (HBO) 
Shoukath Ansari-Master of None (Netflix)
Deon Cole-Black-ish (ABC)
Paul W. Downs-Broad City (Comedy Central)
Peter MacNicol-Veep (HBO)
Timothy Olyphant-The Grinder (FOX)

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy
Claire Danes-Master of None (Netflix) 
Anna Camp-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
Tina Fey-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
Estelle Parsons-Grace and Frankie (Netflix)
Jenny Slate-Girls (HBO) 
Amy Sedaris- Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)

Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series
Black-ish-The Johnson Show-Gail Lerner (ABC)
Brooklyn Nine-Nine-Yippie Kayak-Rebecca Asher (FOX)
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend-Josh just happens to live Here! -Marc Webb (CW) 
Girls-The Panic in Central Park-Richard Shepherd (HBO) 
Master of None-Mornings-Eric Wareheim (Netflix)
Veep-Kissing Your Sister-Dave Mandel (HBO)

Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series
Black-ish-The Word-Kenya Barris (ABC) 
Catastrophe-Episode 1-Rob Delaney and Sharon Horgan (Amazon) 
Girls-I Love You Baby-Judd Apatow, Lena Dunham, and Jenni Konner (HBO)
Master of None-Indians on TV-Aziz Ansari and Alan Yang (Netflix)
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt-Kimmy Goes to Happy Place-Robert Carlock & Emily Altman (Netflix)

Veep-Mother-Alex Gregory & Peter Huyck (HBO)

Friday, March 25, 2016

Batman v. Superman: Zack Snyder's Misogyny Continues (Spoilers Inside)

As I sat in the theatre watching Zack Snyder's latest "interpretation" of the DC Universe there were numerous aspects of the film I disliked. I am not a fan of the slow motion tactics, the intense green screen, which makes things look fake, or the way he says he is taking these characters to the next level or helping them evolve.  I am open to the last piece, but it should hold true to the character.

I am an avid reader of every comic book publisher from DC to IDW.  I have read different writer/artists interpretations of characters.  One of the most recent changes came when Gail Simone left Batgirl, the story took a tonal different and artistic difference when Brendan Fletcher (writer) Cameron Stewart (write, layout), Babs Tarr (artist) and Maris Wicks (colors) took over.  The first time I read the issues from this new team, I had a hard time getting into the new style for Barbara Gordon and her alter ego.  After I let some time pass, I bought both trades, and breezed through Volume 1 and 2 of their work.  I am going off on this tangent because I understand that it can take time to appreciate an artists work and changing interpretation of character.  The truth in the matter is that Fletcher, Stewart, Tarr, and Wicks get Batgirl, they are exploring on a fantastic new level.

Zack Snyder has done the exact opposite with the DC characters, and created a whole new problem for the DC film universe, loads of misogyny in his films.  Let's move past the clear fact that Snyder has no love for Superman, Man of Steel and Dawn of Justice are examples that he has no idea how to craft this character.  When folks say Snyder does a good job with Batman, what they are saying is that Snyder is embracing the dark tone of a character who already lives in this world, and these depths have explored much better by Christopher Nolan and Tim Burton.  One of the biggest problems in Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice is the way in which the women are represented.

The first woman on screen is Amy Adams who has played Lois Lane in both Man of Steel and now Dawn of Justice.  Adams is embarking on an intense journey, into what appears to be a terrorist cell where she eventually becomes the damsel in distress because the situation goes bad. Superman swoops in, and save the day.  This is one maybe four or five times Lois needs to be saved. My interpretation of this scene is that her boyfriend Clark/Superman is following her, and keeping an eye on her to make sure that she stays safe in this situation.  The film makes you believe that Superman has a sixth sense when Lois is going to be in danger.

What is missing from this Lois Lane is the fire and passion to get the scoop, the fearless journalist, who is just as tough as Superman, but in a different way. BvS has disdain for reporters/journalism.  Perry White talks only in headlines, and seems like a dud, but whip smart Lois is even more problematic.  Snyder does not seem to know how to make her into a quality journalist.  You can argue well she takes she goes deep into the trenches with terrorists and with high level military officials in DC, but Lane is merely poorly placed plot device in the script.  If Snyder is willing to change the tone or motives for Batman and Superman, why not Lois?  Why not make her more than the falling/almost drowning victim.  At one point at the end Lois attempts to grab a spear with Kryptonite to help kill/stop Doomsday, but then ends up trapped under water, and Superman must try to save, once again she is the victim, rather than allowing the character to be something different than the film has put together.

Holly Hunter plays Democratic Senator Finch from Kentucky, and is the most complex woman represented in the film, although that is not saying much.  This character had potential; she represents a powerful woman who is not defined by any of the men present; she also uses logic to rationalize to the role Superman plays in the world.  A logical woman?  Let's make her a means to an end, and blow her up, sounds great.  I wonder if these were to the words bandied around while Chris Terrio and David Goyer were writing this script.  I can't lay all the blame on Snyder, but he is the connecting factor within this DC world.

Gal Gadot enters the film with a silent look, and a brief comment to Ben Affleck's Bruce Wayne. Gadot is portraying Wonder Woman, and I am not sure if you hear her real name more than once, you do not hear Wonder Woman uttered at all.  Gadot is on screen for probably fifteen minutes and speaks about five lines of dialogue.  Anderson Cooper may have more dialogue than Gadot. Do not get me wrong Gadot is bad ass in this role, and the way they handle the fight sequences with this character are a thing from many comic book fans dreams, but this is the way you introduce this seminal character, with almost silence?

Gadot has a strong presence on screen, but in this over crowded film, they avoided giving her a back story outside of a picture, and I know she is getting her own film, but this felt wasteful. Once again like in all of his other films, Snyder portrays Wonder Woman as one dimensional, namely because she barely speaks.  You get to see Wonder Woman as the bad ass Amazon, and I am all for that, but if you are going to make her integral role to the film, give her more to do (outside of the fighting) than scrolling through previews of future Justice League members on a computer.   Yes this film made me want more of this character, but that's because there is more to Wonder Woman; she is a doctor, and a scientist, and this film turns into something merely visual.

Let's sandwich the victimization of women with Diane Lane's Martha Kent, who like Lois is also used as a plot device, another woman captured.  I get the trope, the hero has to push ahead to save the people he loves most, but this film goes to absurd lengths, especially with Martha and her capture.  I had numerous visceral reactions, which is what Snyder appeared to be going for; he wanted to build up the intensity of the situation, and make you squirm, but this kidnapping went too far.  Snyder apologists will argue realism, but this was unnecessary.

Some will argue, well the film is called Batman v. Superman, and they are correct.  I understand, not every character will be defined, especially in a film this crowded.  The problem is Snyder does not do enough do define the title characters either. His interpretation of Superman is filled with questionable choices, and what appears to be malice toward the character, maybe he agrees with Lex Luthor too much.

Zack Snyder said “Tone, to me, is the number one aspect of a film that I really interested in, We take it heart-attack serious, but at the same time there’s a self awareness to the movie that I think you have to have, in order for the movie to resonate on any kind of second level beyond just ‘Oh look, these two superheroes are fighting and that’s cool."  Well the tone he set is that women are either victims, or do not speak. Bravo Mr. Snyder, I read your message loud and clear.

Friday, February 26, 2016

Oscar Week 2016: Who Will Win?

This year is unpredictable, and I have to say I am mainly going on hunches, but here are my thoughts:


Best Picture 
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies 
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian 
The Revenant

Many are saying this award is locked up for The Revenant, but that is simply not the case.  If you want to use statistics as a measure, there is a lot of things which challenge any film being labeled as a front runner.  The top three contenders are The Big Short, The Revenant, and Spotlight.

Spotlight won Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG), Best Original Screenplay at the Writer's Guild Award (WGA), and Best Film at the Critics Choice Awards.  You can knock out the Critic's Choice as a significant precursor right away, because there is no correlation of voting.

I would put Spotlight in third of this group, it has support from actors, and writers, and is generally well liked, but has not done as well across the board at the industry awards.  Spotlight missed at the American Cinema Editor's (ACE) nominations where there are two categories, one for drama, and one for comedy/musical.  The last time a film won Best Picture and missed this nomination was Driving Miss Daisy. Spotlight was nominated for Editing at the Oscars and over performed with 6 nominations.  This film is still in the game, but at the moment the only other award its predicted to win would be Original Screenplay, and the Best Picture to win only two Oscars was The Greatest Show on Earth (1952).  Are we underestimating three time Supporting Actor nominee Mark Ruffalo? Possibly, which would add to the win total, but I still think the film is in third.

The Big Short won the Producer's Guild Award (PGA), Best Adapted Screenplay at the WGA, and Editor's Guild (Comedy).  Short has a leg up in one significant way, and that involves the PGA.  The PGA winner is the only voting body which also uses the preferential ballot, the exact method used to determine the Best Picture winner at the Oscars.

I had The Big Short as my number one option after PGA, and I still think it has a chance to win. Short will win Adapted Screenplay, that's a guarantee. If Oscar voters decide to honor its Editing too, Short may come out on top as the winner that night. Outside of PGA, and WGA this film has not won a lot of awards, which keeps me at arms length from predicting this film from winning, although I do think its a strong spoiler.

The Revenant won Best Director at the Globes (could this be a make-up for last year from this small voting group), at the Director's Guild of America (DGA), and Best Picture and Director at the British Academy Awards (BAFTA). The Revenant also has won with the Sound Guild, Cinematographers Guild, and did better with the Visual Effects Guild than predicted.  The Revenant is also the most nominated film with 12 nominations, it over performed like Spotlight, and is a huge box office success.

The DGA turned the tide for The Revenant, namely because Inaritu became the first person to win this award back to back.  This also happened right as Oscar voting was starting.  One of the few things this film has a statistical barrier is that only two other films have won Best Picture without a screenplay, ironically one starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Titanic (1997), and The Soung of Music (1965).  Since this is not unprecedented, its not a barrier. My biggest hesitation with predicting The Revenant is likability, the film appears to run the gamete with extremer admiration and and strong hate.  I am not sure people will rank this as a number 2 on their ballot, which is what helps a film win.

I think the The Revenant feels most like that "prestige" Best Picture winner, and is the film I going to stick with, although I do think any of these three films could win.

Will Win: The Revenant
Spoilers: The Big Short and Spotlight (in that order)

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston-Trumbo
Matt Damon-The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio-The Revenant
Michael Fassbender-Steve Jobs 
Eddie Redmayne-The Danish Girl 

Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio-The Revenant

Best Actress 
Cate Blanchett-Carol
Brie Larson-Room
Jennifer Lawrence-Joy 
Charlotte Rampling-45 Years 
Saoirse Ronan-Brooklyn

Will Win: Brie Larson-Room

Best Supporting Actor 
Christian Bale-The Big Short 
Tom Hardy-The Revenant 
Mark Ruffalo-Spotlight
Mark Rylance-Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone-Creed   

This is one of the most inconsistent category with regard to nominees, except for Mark Rylance being present at every award show (in this category). Bale showed up lead at the Globes.

Stallone is person who everyone is predicting, but I wonder if the internet crowned this winner the way many think the internet pushed Mad Max forward.  I think this award could be anyone's except maybe Bale who is the only previous winner in this category.

If love for The Revenant is strong, Tom Hardy could be swept along for the ride.The last person to win this category with such limited precursor attention was James Coburn in 199 for Affliction.

Ruffalo showed up at BAFTA, and the Critic's Choice, and this is his third nomination in this category, I could see him pulling off a win if people love Spotlight more than expected.

Mark Rylance won BAFTA, but is also British, which helps here.  If Ruffalo won at BAFTA, I would give him a stronger chance, but in the end Rylance is the most consistent nominee.  I am not sure that consistency matters enough here, and he was not present to accept his trophy at BAFTA.

My guess is that the Academy wants Rocky on stage, it honors the history of the legacy of the film, but never underestimate Stallone's poor track record after this to count him out like Eddie Murphy.  Stallone was never nominated by an industry group (outside of the Oscars) he was nominated and won at the Globes and Critic's Choice which no connection to Oscar voters.

Will Win: Sylvester Stallone-Creed
 Spoiler: Mark Ruffalo-Spotlight

Best Supporting Actress 
Jennifer Jason Leigh-The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara-Carol
Rachel McAdams-Spotlight
Alicia Vikander-The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet-Steve Jobs 

This was a category I was going out on a limb for, but changed my mind as I looked at some of the statistics. I do believe it is between three women.  Since 2000 a first time nominee  has won this category 10 times, which is a staggering statistic in favor Alicia Vikander. Vikander won for this performance at SAG.

The other five women all won for their second (third for Zellwegger) nomination, which bodes well for Rooney Mara.  Who was nominated previously for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.  The problem is Mara is getting no attention for this performance, and the film seems to be falling off the radar to win anything.

The person in second place for me is Winslet; she won at the Globes and at BAFTA, and is well respected.  Winslet has never faced Vikander while Vikander was nominated for The Danish Girl, and won, although I am not sure the film matters.  I do think Winslet could spoil, and has a chance

Will Win: Alicia Vikander-The Danish Girl
Spoiler-Kate Winslet-Steve Jobs 

Best Director
Lenny Abrahamson-Room
Alejandro G. Inaritu-The Revenant
Tom McCarthy-Spotlight
Adam McKay-The Big Short
George Miller-Mad Max: Fury Road 

This is a two man race, the person in the lead is Inaritu; he won at the Globes, DGA, and BAFTA, the three most important precursor awards.

The second person is the Critics darling George Miller, who won the Critics Choice.  If Mad Max sweeps in more categories than expected, for example visual effects, costumes, and both sound, Miller has a strong chance of besting Inaritu, but I have become convinced that this is once again Inaritu's to lose.  I hope I am wrong.

Will Win: Alejandro G. Inaritu-The Revenant 
Spoiler: George Miller: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Adapted Screenplay-The Big Short
Best Original Screenplay-Spotlight
Best Animated Feature-Inside Out
Best Foreign Language Feature-Son of Saul
Best Documentary Feature-Amy 
Best Cinematography-The Revenant
Best Costume Design-Mad Max: Fury Road (watch out for The Danish Girl)
Best Film Editing-Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Make-Up Hair Styling-Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Production Design-Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Original Score-The Hateful Eight
Best Original Song-The Hunting Ground-Til' it Happens to You
Best Sound Mixing-The Revenant 
Best Sound Editing-The Revenant
Best Visual Effects-Star Wars-The Force Awakens

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Oscar Week 2016: Is it about the Visual Effects or the Prestige?

I have rarely had a difficult time predicting the winner in the in the Best Visual Effects category, even when the Award went to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.  There is a long standing tradition that when there is a Best Picture nominee in the Visual Effects category, that film will win the Visual Effects Oscar.  This trend/statistic is something many have cited since Star Wars won this award back in 1977.

The reason this statistic has held up over time was because between 1977 and 1993, there were only two other Best Picture nominees who were nominated for Best Visual Effects, and took home the Oscar, Raiders of the Lost Ark, and E..T.  Throughout this almost twenty year span winners in the Visual Effects category were the blockbusters who moved audiences and and the visual effects art form in new and interesting directions.  Some of these winners include Aliens, Who Framed Roger Rabbit, and Jurassic Park.  These are three films which deserved Best Picture consideration, but the Academy  rarely honored "genre pictures" outside of the technical categories.

In 1994 three movies were nominated, Forrest Gump, True Lies, and The Mask.  Forrest Gump was the first Best Picture nominee in this category since 1982, and won the award.  Forrest Gump's visual effects were a novelty, and are the first example of prestige drama winning in this category.  Gump's digital manipulation of events in history won out over the typical explosive motorcycle crashing into a building of True Lies.  This was a changing of the guard, and while I would imagine there were other viable contenders from that year, this would mark the start for more Best Picture nominees in the visual effects Oscar category.

Since 1994 18 films have been nominated for Best Picture and Best Visual Effects.  There have only been 8 years when there was no Best Picture nominated in the Visual Effects category. The largest time frame when this happened was between 2004 and 2007. The category typically only had 3 nominees up until 2010.  As far as statistics go predicting this award in a year without a Best Picture nomination is incredibly difficult, I am not sure many saw Pirate's of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest beating Superman Returns (2006) or The Golden Compass beating Transformers (2007).  All four of these films had mediocre to terrible reviews, so how do you pick a winner in this bunch? Admiration? The Guilds?

Beyond these two years, it's sad to say that the visual effects Oscar winner has more to do with "perceived prestige" and lazy voting not the actual best visual effects. This trend has continued with more Best Picture nominees present in this category.  A repetitive pattern started in 2008, Benjamin Button beat The Dark Knight, Hugo beat Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part and Rise of of the Planet of the Apes, Life of Pi beat The Avengers.  I could see this pattern repeating here this year with The Revenant beating Mad Max and Star Wars.  For those following the Oscars it has been apparent that voters have been checking boxes for films like Hugo, Life of Pi, and Gravity in the technical categories, and while their visual effects are impressive (Gravity easily deserved the win), I want more dissension.

The fact that there is a statistic that proves every time a Best Picture is nominated in Best Visual Effects it wins shows laziness. My hope is that the Oscars move away from the "prestige" choice in this category, if that alternative is not worth rewarding.  This year there are three films nominated for Best Picture and Best Visual Effects, the most correlation in the Oscars history.  They are The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road, and The Martian.

Forrest Gump (6 Oscar wins), Titanic (11 Oscar wins),  Gladiator (5 Oscar wins), and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (11 Oscar wins), are the only four films to win Best Picture and Best Visual Effects, they were clear front runners. Gladiator winning over Hollow Man and The Perfect Storm makes sense, while there were stronger candidates which were not nominated that year like Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, that is not the case this year.

If the tradition stands the Best Picture front runner will win this award, and that is The Revenant. The film predicted by my many to win Best Picture/Director/Actor and many other technical awards. Will The Revenant have that rubber stamp from voters in a similar way to Return of the King, and Titanic, or will another film triumph?  In a year filled with some fantastic nominees, The Revenant would feel like Benjamin Button, a lazy "prestige" choice.

I would rather practical effects of Mad Max take the win here, they are the most impressive of the nominees.  The Martian will not win, they have pick Gravity and Interstellar too recently.  Ex Machina was a surprise nominee, but well deserved.  The true spoiler in this category could be the film which many cite as starting the Best Picture/Best Visual Effects statistic, and that is The Force Awakens.  Force is not nominated but won at the Visual Effects Guild and at BAFTA, this could be the thing to watch out for, especially if people want to honor the achievement of bringing Star Wars back.  At the end of the day I  want Oscar voters to make the right choice, and honor the best visual effects, not the best manufactured  bear attack.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Oscar Week 2016: Is Inaritu advancing Admiration Film Direction?

There was a point in time when audiences clamored to see a John Huston film or Frank Capra picture. The director was the star, just as much as Humphrey Bogart or Katherine Hepburn. , Steven Spielberg's visionary Jaws (1975) changed the face of direction, and birthed the modern blockbuster, which in many instances rendered the director interchangeable.

Spielberg has maintained  his status as respected auteur over the years because he has expanded his role in producing film and television. Spielberg's name has become a brand. Hollywood took this model and turned the studio system into an even larger machine. Now blockbusters (largely super hero films at the moment) "Rule the school" -I tried to channel my best Stockard Channing as Rizzo,

Spielberg is still a visionary in many ways, but as the rise of the blockbuster seemed to create fewer opportunities for auteurs to rise in the studio system or make a larger mark on cinema. Movie goers have been going to see films less and less because of the director.  There are some exceptions to this over the past few decades (on a mainstream level) Scorsese, and Cameron come to mind.  Alejandro G. Inaritu. may be added to this list after these past two years.

Inaritu is one of the most ambitious directors working today, and many admire the great depths he takes to create cinematic experiences. This ambition translates to passion, something Inaritu talks about when describing his direction, the experiences he tries to capture.  I think he talks in cliches, for example "Pain is temporary, film is forever." All I have to say that is "good grief." 

I get what honoring Inaritu means for this category, he seems to be bringing back the importance the director had in the film making process years ago. People are looking beyond the problems with his films, and seeing their ambition.  There are numerous problems with The Revenant.  The film is too long, and could have been cut down by an hour. While the film is long, the script is thin, not short, but thin. For a 2 and 1/2 hour film I developed no emotional connections to the characters, and the journey DiCaprio 's should have made me feel more connected to his experience, rather than just provide visceral moments. The film is also over acted, more on the Tom Hardy end, and I often could not understand what he was saying.  The film is coasting on ambition, which is where Inaritu is getting the most credit.

On a postive note, The Revenant's cinematography from Emmanuel Lubezki is beautiful Inaritu's touch on the visuals involve making sure that they always shot with natural light.  I would argue that only shooting in natural light was a bit insane, but again ambition trumps sanity. In years past this argument might have torpedoed the films chances to win Best Picture, but this film only seems to derive strength from the challenges of the filming.  There is this one two punch from Inaritu and Lubezki which also happened with Birdman last year.

Lubezki is about to win his third Oscar (in a row) for this film, and I would argue that he is the auteur taking film innovation to the next level.  Lubzki's work in Children of Men, Tree of Life, Gravity, Birdman and The Revenant is possibly the most innovative Cinematography in modern cinema by one man. Lubezki is getting the credit he deserves, three Oscars is nothing to sneer at, but the name most people are talking about outside of DiCaprio is Inaritu. 

Inaritu is bringing the director's vision for his art back to forefront. Inaritu is likely to win a second Oscar, for a second year in a row. There are only two men who have won back to back directing Oscars, and they are John Ford who won for How Green was my Valley and The Grapes of Wrath and Joseph L. Mankiewicz who won for A Letter to Three Wives, and All About Eve.  One of the main differences here is Ford's second direction win did not have a Best Picture win attached, Rebecca won Best Picture that year. Mankiewicz had the same experience with his first directing win, All the King's Men won Picture.  If Inaritu wins Best Director, and The Revenant wins Best Picture, he will be the first person to win back to back Directing Oscars with corresponding Best Picture wins. This adds to his cache.

I have mixed emotions about this year, on one hand I get The Revenant as a Best Picture winner, and Inaritu winning director, the size and scope feel like picks from the Academy.  I would like to see the director's vision have more meaning and be an important part in bringing mainstream audiences to the movies. I just wish the director we were talking about were George Miller or Todd Haynes.