Sunday, January 27, 2013

Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Film Predictions

Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook

This typically is this branch's version of the Best Picture award, and sometimes they pick the award show juggernaut more recent wins like The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire No Country for Old Men, and The King's Speech, but more often than not they pick the true "ensemble film" The Birdcage, The Full Monty, Traffic, Gosford Park, Sideways, Inglorious Basterds, and The Help.

What type of year will this be?  An award show sweep or one where they pick a truly great ensemble.  The problem with that is that Argo has been sweeping up the trophies, and their ensemble is pretty great.  Argo is the spoiler.  Silver Linings Playbook won this award at the Broadcast Film Critics Awards like The Help last year.  Silver Linings is the favorite, and will probably win.  If Lincoln happens to win it will win Best Picture.  A win here here would obviously bump up the chances of Silver Linings Playbook too.

Will Win: Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win: Argo
Spoiler Lincoln, Argo

Best Performance by a Lead Actor in a Motion Picture
Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln
John Hawkes-The Sessions
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables
Denzel Washington-Flight

Day-Lewis wins this in a walk, when people think Lincoln they think his performance, and this could be the reason it has not been winning in the "Best Picture" categories.

Will and Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln

Best Performance by a Lead Actress in a Motion Picture
Marion Cotillard-Rust and Bone
Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren-Hitchcock
Naomi Watts-The Impossible

The battle is one, Jessica Chastain versus Jennifer Lawrence.  While at the beginning of this award season this race looked to be one of the most boring, but in fact its one of the most interesting again this year (like last year).  I will add this SAG category is the one of the worst at predicting a win, past winners, which did not win at Oscar were Viola Davis for The Help, Meryl Streep in Doubt, Julie Christie in Away from Her, Renee Zellweger from Chicago, and Annette Bening for American Beauty.    These five women won here at SAG and lost at the Oscars.

I am going to stick with my initial prediction, and go with Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty, but Jennifer Lawrence is a very very very close second.  If Lawrence wins look for this category to have a surprise winner on Oscar night.

Will and Should Jessica Chatain-Zero Dark Thirty
Massive Spoiler-Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook

Best Performance by an Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Alan Arkin-Argo
Javier Bardem-Skyfall
Robert DeNiro-Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master
Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln

One of the biggest toss ups, with Bardem out of the race, and Arkin a distant fourth.  Silver Linings Playbook, and Lincoln were well loved by this group, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman is the only nominee from The Master.  So its DeNiro versus Jones.  Jones unlikeable move at the Globes could hurt him.  I am going to to go with DeNiro, but I do not think he deserves a nomination for this role.

Prediction: Robert DeNiro-Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win and Spoiler: Tommy Lee Jones

Best Performance by an Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Sally Field-Lincoln
Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Helen Hunt-The Sessions
Nicole Kidman-The Paperboy
Maggie Smith-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Get a better speech ready Ms. Hathaway, you will win tonight, and at the Oscars!

Will Win: Anne Hathaway
Should Win: Sally Field-Lincoln

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