Moonrise Kingdom these Guild Awards help show which smaller films have more support. In the film categories they also break down the nominees by genre: period, fantasy, and contemporary film.
The actual Oscar nominees usually fall between the Period and Fantasy film categories. I think this year's Oscar nominees will be all of the period films (minus Argo) and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. Cloud Atlas and Life of Pi have a strong shot to knock out Django, but I think Django's recent release gives the film a leg up on the competition.
I have to add that the television nominations are also incredible, and they nominated two of my favorite shows, Newsroom, and Community. Bravo!