Lincoln leads BAFTA Nominations this Year, While they Leave Most Brits Behind

A couple of days ago in analyzing and predicting the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTA) there were couple of trends, they line up with Oscar pretty well, but also tend to bolster British nominees.  This year broke with that pattern to some extent, although this years nominees have that traditional feel.

While films like Skyfall and Best Exotic Marigold Hotel made the Best British Film list, I was convinced one of them would make the Best Film list.  BAFTA did not ignore one of their British made films, they nominated Les Miserables in both categories.  

The Best Director category had some shake ups as well, making the BAFTA more unique.  Michael Haneke and Quentin Tarantino were nominated, replacing sure fire bet Steven Spielberg for Lincoln and shockingly the British director Tom Hooper, for Best Film nominee Les Mis!  One day after the Director's Guild Awards (DGA) this shakes things up more than ever.  One thing is certain Spielberg will not be ignored this year, and I am shocked he missed the cut here because the film has the most nominations with 10, but Hooper is more vulnerable than ever! Hooper not being embraced by his own statesmen is a big deal.  The DGA will typically nominate a musical director, while Oscar will forget them Bill Condon for Dreamgirls, and Baz Lurhmann for Moulin Rouge are two examples of this within the last decade.  Hooper got a boost yesterday, but being forgotten today is proof this category is a hard one to predict.  Of the two BAFTA nominees Haneke has the biggest chance at unseating him tomorrow morning.

Haneke's nomination is proof this award group supports foreign language films more, but Oscar may follow suit this year.  Haneke's films received four major nominations, the other three nominations were Best Film Not in the English Language, Emanuelle Riva in Best Leading Actress, and Best Original Screenplay.  Amour could surprise tomorrow morning and earn nominations in all of these categories.  Amour helped shake things up in many of these categories, and BAFTA did not totally forget the Brits in the acting categories.

Skyfall helped Judi Dench score her 14th film nomination at the BAFTA's with a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Skyfall, and while not a Brit Javier Bardem was nominated in the Supporting Actor category for Skyfall as well.  Helen Mirren was the only other British acting nominee; she was nominated in the Lead Actress category for Hitchcock.  

These two ladies nominations were not surprising, but there were one or two surprises in the acting categories.  Ben Affleck got an acting nomination for Argo, this is his first nomination and he beat out John Hawkes whose co-star Helen Hunt received a nomination for the film.  Although beyond this most of the nominees were not unexpected.

While these awards do not have a perfect line-up with the Academy Awards they are a good barometer for who will get nominations, and who will get snubbed. Here is a list of all the nominees, and after a look at sure fire BAFTA nominees, who will show up at Oscar.

Surefire nominees tomorrow:

BEST FILM

• ARGO Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney
• LES MISÉRABLES Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh
• LIFE OF PI Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark
• LINCOLN Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy
• ZERO DARK THIRTY Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

• ANNA KARENINA Joe Wright, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Paul Webster, Tom Stoppard
• THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL John Madden, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Ol Parker
• LES MISÉRABLES Tom Hooper, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh, William Nicholson, Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer
• SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin
• SKYFALL Sam Mendes, Michael G. Wilson, Barbara Broccoli, Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, John Logan

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

• BART LAYTON (Director), DIMITRI DOGANIS (Producer) The Imposter
• DAVID MORRIS (Director), JACQUI MORRIS (Director/Producer) McCullin
• DEXTER FLETCHER (Director/Writer), DANNY KING (Writer) Wild Bill
• JAMES BOBIN (Director) The Muppets
• TINA GHARAVI (Director/Writer) I Am Nasrine

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

• AMOUR Michael Haneke, Margaret Ménégoz
• HEADHUNTERS Morten Tyldum, Marianne Gray, Asle Vatn
• THE HUNT Thomas Vinterberg, Sisse Graum Jørgensen, Morten Kaufmann
• RUST AND BONE Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux
• UNTOUCHABLE Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache, Nicolas Duval Adassovsky, Yann Zenou, Laurent Zeitoun

DOCUMENTARY

• THE IMPOSTER Bart Layton, Dimitri Doganis
• MARLEY Kevin Macdonald, Steve Bing, Charles Steel
• McCULLIN David Morris, Jacqui Morris
• SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn
• WEST OF MEMPHIS Amy Berg

ANIMATED FILM

• BRAVE Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman
• FRANKENWEENIE Tim Burton
• PARANORMAN Sam Fell, Chris Butler

DIRECTOR

• AMOUR Michael Haneke
• ARGO Ben Affleck
• DJANGO UNCHAINED Quentin Tarantino
• LIFE OF PI Ang Lee
• ZERO DARK THIRTY Kathryn Bigelow

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• AMOUR Michael Haneke
• DJANGO UNCHAINED Quentin Tarantino
• THE MASTER Paul Thomas Anderson
• MOONRISE KINGDOM Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
• ZERO DARK THIRTY Mark Boal

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• ARGO Chris Terrio
• BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
• LIFE OF PI David Magee
• LINCOLN Tony Kushner
• SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK David O. Russell

LEADING ACTOR

• BEN AFFLECK Argo
• BRADLEY COOPER Silver Linings Playbook
• DANIEL DAY-LEWIS Lincoln
• HUGH JACKMAN Les Misérables
• JOAQUIN PHOENIX The Master

LEADING ACTRESS

• EMMANUELLE RIVA Amour
• HELEN MIRREN Hitchcock
• JENNIFER LAWRENCE Silver Linings Playbook
• JESSICA CHASTAIN Zero Dark Thirty
• MARION COTILLARD Rust and Bone

SUPPORTING ACTOR

• ALAN ARKIN Argo
• CHRISTOPH WALTZ Django Unchained
• JAVIER BARDEM Skyfall
• PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN The Master
• TOMMY LEE JONES Lincoln

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• AMY ADAMS The Master
• ANNE HATHAWAY Les Misérables
• HELEN HUNT The Sessions
• JUDI DENCH Skyfall
• SALLY FIELD Lincoln

ORIGINAL MUSIC

• ANNA KARENINA Dario Marianelli
• ARGO Alexandre Desplat
• LIFE OF PI Mychael Danna
• LINCOLN John Williams
• SKYFALL Thomas Newman

CINEMATOGRAPHY

• ANNA KARENINA Seamus McGarvey
• LES MISÉRABLES Danny Cohen
• LIFE OF PI Claudio Miranda
• LINCOLN Janusz Kaminski
• SKYFALL Roger Deakins

EDITING

• ARGO William Goldenberg
• DJANGO UNCHAINED Fred Raskin
• LIFE OF PI Tim Squyres
• SKYFALL Stuart Baird
• ZERO DARK THIRTY Dylan Tichenor, William Goldenberg

PRODUCTION DESIGN

• ANNA KARENINA Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
• LES MISÉRABLES Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson
• LIFE OF PI David Gropman, Anna Pinnock
• LINCOLN Rick Carter, Jim Erickson
• SKYFALL Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock

COSTUME DESIGN

• ANNA KARENINA Jacqueline Durran
• GREAT EXPECTATIONS Beatrix Aruna Pasztor
• LES MISÉRABLES Paco Delgado
• LINCOLN Joanna Johnston
• SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN Colleen Atwood

MAKE UP & HAIR

• ANNA KARENINA Ivana Primorac
• HITCHCOCK Julie Hewett, Martin Samuel, Howard Berger
• THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY Peter Swords King, Richard Taylor, Rick Findlater
• LES MISÉRABLES Lisa Westcott
• LINCOLN Lois Burwell, Kay Georgiou

SOUND

• DJANGO UNCHAINED Mark Ulano, Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Wylie Stateman
• THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY Tony Johnson, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick, Brent Burge, Chris Ward
• LES MISÉRABLES Simon Hayes, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Jonathan Allen, Lee Walpole, John Warhurst
• LIFE OF PI Drew Kunin, Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton, Ron Bartlett, D. M. Hemphill
• SKYFALL Stuart Wilson, Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Per Hallberg, Karen Baker Landers

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

• THE DARK KNIGHT RISES Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Peter Bebb, Andrew Lockley
• THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White
• LIFE OF PI Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer
• MARVEL AVENGERS ASSEMBLE Nominees TBC
• PROMETHEUS Richard Stammers, Charley Henley, Trevor Wood, Paul Butterworth

SHORT ANIMATION

• HERE TO FALL Kris Kelly, Evelyn McGrath
• I’M FINE THANKS Eamonn O’Neill
• THE MAKING OF LONGBIRD Will Anderson, Ainslie Henderson

SHORT FILM

• THE CURSE Fyzal Boulifa, Gavin Humphries
• GOOD NIGHT Muriel d’Ansembourg, Eva Sigurdardottir
• SWIMMER Lynne Ramsay, Peter Carlton, Diarmid Scrimshaw
• TUMULT Johnny Barrington, Rhianna Andrews
• THE VOORMAN PROBLEM Mark Gill, Baldwin Li

THE EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)

• ELIZABETH OLSEN
• ANDREA RISEBOROUGH
• SURAJ SHARMA
• JUNO TEMPLE
• ALICIA VIKANDER

Surefire Oscar Nominees

Best Picture-All of them!

Best Director-Affleck, Bigelow, and Lee

Best Actor-Cooper, Jackman, Day-Lewis

Best Actress-Lawrence, Chastain, and Cotillard

Best Supporting Actress-Field, Hathaway Hunt

Best Supporting Actor-Arkin, Seymour Hoffman, and Lee Jones

Of the rest of the nominees many have them have a strong chance, but these awards never line up right away, so prepare to pick a few changes for tomorrow morning, my predictions are coming later today!