Oscar Roundup 2012: Academy Award Predictions

Best Picture
Argo 
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained 
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln 
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
(if 10 then...Skyfall)

After a lot of consternation, I am going to predict 9 nominees once again this year, in my other nomination predictions I have a tenth slot for The Master, but I do not think that film is loved enough to make the cut here.  These nine seem the most stable, and while I would like to predict Skyfall, and/or Amour I do not think they will make this list, but will do very well with the Academy.

Best Director
Ben Affleck-Argo
Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke-Amour
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg-Lincoln
alt. Tom Hooper-Les Miserables

Four of these five are safe nominees, I am going out on a limb with Haneke, mainly because and while some may disagree this branch always throw in a nominee like Haneke-David Lynch, Pedro Almodovar, etc.  The other possibilities are Hooper, Tarantino, and O. Russell.  I think O. Russell is out, no DGA nod or BAFTA nod makes him the most vulnerable  Tarantino got a BAFTA and Golden Globe nod, but no DGA nod I think he has the next best shot.  Hooper is the most interesting no Globe or BAFTA, but a DGA nod.  I still pick Haneke.

Best Actor
Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln
John Hawkes-The Sessions
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables
Denzel Washington-Flight
alt. Joaquin Phoenix-The Master 

Joaquin Phoenix was predicted to win this award at one point, but there is no stopping Day-Lewis!  Phoenix comments about awards shot him in the foot, even though they should not matter.  Phoenix still has an outside shot, but as the sixth man in a competitive category he is going to have to sit out.

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard-Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhane Wallis-Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts-The Impossible
alt. Helen Mirren-Hitchcock

The category that looked to be one of the easiest to predict is now one of the hardest, along with Best Supporting Actor.  I think there are four locks, Chastain, Cotillard, Lawrence, and Watts.  All of them have steady nominations from every award show.  While Mirren has also received steady praise she is also the most vulnerable, although we may be over thinking this fifth spot, which tends to happen.  Beasts has a lot of love, and is well respected, Mirren herself has spoken its praise , meaning Wallis is helped by a Best Picture nomination.  The other people fighting out that last spot are Mirren, and Emanuelle Riva.  Amour is going to do better than most think, and may get the same nominations as BAFTA.  While I think Riva has a shot I think she is in 7th.  Mirren's many nominations is making me go back and forth, but I am going to make her my alternate.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin-Argo
Javier Bardem-Skyfall
Robert DeNiro-Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master
alt: Samuel L. Jackson-Django Unchained

Alright so narrowing my logic on these five was easier than I thought.  As I was working on my predictions I thought about my own reaction to Django, and my friends reaction, we all had our different best performances.  I loved Christoph Waltz, my one friend love Samuel L. Jackson, no one has praised Leo much that I know, and that made me think of the phrase too many cooks.  Are there too many Django men in the supporting race, will people pick more than one, or will they pick their favorite?  Hard to say.  I think Oscar voters may be smart enough to discern that Waltz is a lead (maybe not).  As I ramble through this, you can see that this is hard to predict.  I think Barden is a good safe bet he has a SAG, BFCA, and BAFTA nomination.  DeNiro is weak too, but I think he will make it.  With regards to the Django men I think Jackson could become that shocking nomination, but he is my alternate.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams-The Master
Ann Dowd-Compliance
Sally Field-Lincoln
Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Helen Hunt-The Sessions
alt. Nicole Kidman-The Paperboy

Four of these women are good bets, but that fifth spot is tricky, Adams missed out at SAG, and Kidman and Maggie Smith are there, but Smith missed out at BAFTA as did Kidman.  Dowd is this year's Jacki Weaver; she is the Cinderella story; she paid for her own screeners to be sent out, and I think that will work in her favor to be the fifth nominee at the Oscars, Kidman is my alternate.

Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt. Looper

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Alt: The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Best Foreign Language Film
A Royal Affair 
Amour
The Intouchables 
No
Kon-Tiki

Best Animated Feature
Brave 
Frankenweenie
The Painting
ParaNorman
Wreck-it Ralph

Best Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables 
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Best Cinematography
Les Miserables 
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master 
Skyfall

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina 
Cloud Atlas
Django Unchained
Les Miserables 
Lincoln 

Best Film Editing
Argo
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Makeup
Lincoln 
Les Miserables
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Original Score
Argo
Anna Karenina 
Lincoln 
Life of Pi 
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Song
Skyfall-Skyfall
Suddenly-Les Miserables
Learn Me Right-Brave
Song of a Lonely Mountain-The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Still Alive-Paul Williams: Still Alive

Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Mixing

The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Best Visual Effects

The Avengers
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Lincoln will as predicted lead the pack with 13 nominations!