Monday, January 7, 2013

Oscar Roundup 2012: BAFTA, Blimey I Think They've Got it!?

Over the the many years of the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTA) there are two apparent facts, they line up for the most part with Oscar, but they also take care of their own.  What does that mean?  British films, directors, actors etc tend to make it in over the surefire Oscar nominee.  Looking down blow you will see how Oscar and BAFTA line-up in regards to Best Picture, which actors recieved nominations at BAFTA (not at the Oscars), and how this will impact this year's nominees at BAFTA, and the Academy Awards.

In the Best Film/Picture world, over the last 8 years BAFTA has done well.  2004 was  BAFTA's weakest year in recent memory they only matched 2/5, and was the only year without the the Best Picture winner nominated in a long time, which is truly an anomaly.  Of the BAFTA nominees that missed at Oscar time the three were some how affiliated with UK production, showing one of the trends with the way BAFTA and Oscar may not always align, and proving a little bias from the country of origin.  The same can be said with the acting categories.

 BAFTA                                                            Oscar 
The Aviator*
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Finding Nverland
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Million Dollar Baby*
The Motorcycle Diaries
Vera Drake

In 2005 BAFTA picked British film The Constant Gardener over the very American Steven Spielberg's Munich. In 2006 BAFTA went 4/5, picking the British film The Last King of Scotland, over Clint Eastwood's Letter's from Iwo Jima, this was also a sign that Dreamgirls was weaker than predicted. In 2007 (as seen below) BAFTA went 3/5, picking a German film, which had no shot at a Best Picture nomination, and American Gnagster, which was directed by the famed British director Ridley Scott.

 BAFTA                                                            Oscar 
No Country for Old Men
No Country for Old Men*
There will be Blood
There will be Blood
American Gangster
The Lives of Others
Michael Clayton

In 2008, 2009, and 2010, with their five nominees predicted all of the Best Picture nominees.  Unlike the Academy their did not switch to the 10 picture system or the 5-10 picture system.  In 2011 BAFTA only predicted 3 Best Picture nominees, and like within years prior this was based on their tendency to award British or Foreign Language films. Last year's 2011 was the weakest year where the Academy had more than 5 nominees.  In the diagram below it shows that BAFTA only had 3 of the Academy's 9 nominees.  Tinker Tailor was a UK film, and well liked by their Academy, while Drive's nomination was just something proving they sometimes have better taste than us Yanks

BAFTA                                                                     Oscar 
The Help
The Help
The Descendants
The Descendants
The Artist*
The Artist*
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy 
The Tree of Life

Midnight in Paris


War Horse

In the acting categories their are often many famous Brits who make the cut at BAFTA, but are left in the lurch come Oscar time.  Here is a list by category:

Best Actor in a Leading Role (6)
Ralph Fiennes-The Constant Gardener (2005)
Daniel Craig-Casino Royale (2006)
Richard Griffiths-The History Boys (2006)
Dev Patel-Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
Andy Serkis-Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll (2009)
Michael Fassbender-Shame (2011

Best Actress in a Leading Role (7)
Kate Winslet-Finding Neverland (2004)
Judi Dench-Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005)
Keira Knightly-Atonement (2007)
Kristin Scott Thomas-I've Loved You So Long (2008)
Kate Winslet-Revolutionary Road (2008)
Saoirse Ronan-The Lovely Bones (2009)
Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role (11)
Phil Davis-Vera Drake (2004)
James McAvoy-The Last King of Scotland (2006)
Leslie Phillips-Venus (2006)
Michael Sheen-The Queen (2006)
Brendan Gleeson-In Bruges (2008)
Christian McKay-Me and Orson Welles (2009)
Alfred Molina-An Education (2009)
Andrew Garfield-The Social Network (2010)
Peter Postlewaite-The Town (2010)
Jim Boradbent-The Iron Lady (2011)
Kenneth Brannaugh-My Week with Marilyn (2011)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role (16) 
Heather Craney-Vera Drake (2004)
Julie Christie-Finding Neverland (2004)
Brenda Blethyn-Pride and Prejudice (2005)
Toni Collette-Little Miss Sunshine (2006)-Aussie
Emily Blunt-The Devil Wears Prada (2006)
Frances de la Tour-The History Boys (2006)
Samantha Morton-Control (2007)
Kelly McDonald-No Country for Old Men (2007)
Frieda Pinto-Slumndog Millionaire (2008)
Tilda Swinton-Burn After Reading (2008)
Ann-Marie Duff-Nowhere Boy (2009)
Kristin Scott Thomas-Nowhere Boy (2009)
Miranda Richardson-Made in Dagenham (2010)
Lesley Manville-Another Year (2010)
Carey Mulligan-Drive (2011)
Judi Dench-My Week with Marilyn (2011)

Of the the BAFTA nominees over the last 8 years 40 of them have been Brits who have not gone on to be nominated at the Academy Awards.  This only counts the Brits who were not nominated, but about 1/4 of the BAFTA nominees over the last 8 years were not nominated at the Oscars giving nominees a 3/4 chance, which are pretty could odds.

So who gets nominated and how will this impact the Academy Awards?  Given the non-consistent statistics and the BAFTAs honoring their own states men and women so regularly look for a different list of nominees, which may or may not look like my predictions below.  I tried to use the the above stats to help guide my predictions, but this is a massive shot in the dark! Listed below are my predictions:

Best Film 
 Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
alt: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Daniel Craig-Skyfall
Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables
Anthony Hopkins-Hitchcock
Joaquin Phoenix-The Master
Alt: Ewen McGregor-The Impossible

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Marion Cotillard-Rust and Bone
Judi Dench-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Helen Mirren-Hitchcock
Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts-The Impossible
Alt: Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actor in a Supporting Role 
Alan Arkin-Argo
Javier Bardem-Skyfall
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master
Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln
Eddie Redmayne-Les Miserables
Alt: Tom Wilkinson-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Judi Dench-Skyfall
Anne Hathway-Les Miserables 
Sally Field-Lincoln
Nicole Kidman-The Paperboy
Maggie Smith-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Alt: Samantha Barks-Les Miserables

Best Director 
Ben Affleck-Argo
Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty
Sam Mendes-Skyfall
Tom Hooper-Les Miserables
Steven Spielberg-Lincoln
Alt: John Madden-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

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