Today the Director's Guild of America named their top five and they were:
Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper-Les Miserables
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Going forward three facts are important:
1) The DGA voting body is about 14,000 and the Oscar voting body is about 400
2) DGA nominations happened without any Oscar nomination influence.
3) Statistically they predict four out of five directors, in the last ten years 5/5 happened twice, 2005, and 2009, is this the year? My money is on no.
So who is the weak one? Hooper was my 6th man, I thought he would do well with this group, but I think Oscar voters are a bit more shrewd than DGA voters, the last director nominated for a musical was Rob Marshall, and his surefire win, ended in an upset to Roman Polanski.
While some will say Lee is the weak one, he and his film have some of the strongest guild support, and Lee is far more respected in the field. The film is also well liked across the board.
Who will replace the fifth (or Hooper) look for more of a surprise nomination for Michael Haneke; he and his film are going to have more Academy support than most think (a hunch). The Weinstein's could also push for O. Russell, but the film has lost a lot of steam and their slow roll out for the film has backfired more than worked.