Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers ClubGravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Picture has a few locks, 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, these are the top four contenders, they will also have the most nominations. If these nominations pan out exactly as I have forecasted 12 will have 12 nominations, Gravity and Hustle 10 each, and Captain 8.
What films are next in line? There are many debates on what's next, but here is my best guess (in order). Nebraska, this Alexander Payne film is well liked, and its something the numerous older Academy voters will love. Dallas Buyers Club, with a PGA, WGA, and SAG nomination this film is well liked Matt and Jared may even win, it will get a Best Picture nomination. The controversy has made The Wolf of of Wall Street even more popular, the film has support and Marty.
There will be nine nominees, mathematically 10 can't happen because of the balloting. Who gets the the next two spots? There are five films battling it out:
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks
None of these films have SAG ensemble nominations, of the lot Her and Blue Jasmine have done the best at the guilds, both had PGA and WGA nominations. The other three have not done as well collecting a nomination here and there at the Guild awards. My gut says the final two are Her and Blue Jasmine, but how can they ignore Inside Llewyn Davis, a Coen brothers movie? There are also no true uplifting films on the list like Saving Mr. Banks, or Philomena. My final two are Her, and Philomena. It's a shame that Inside Llewyn Davis may be snubbed, but I am not sure it can make the list.
Best Director
Paul Greengrass-Captain Phillips
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen-12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell- American Hustle
Martin Scorsese-The Wolf of Wall Street
You can't say "sure thing" in this category anymore, just look at last year with two favorite Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck left off the list. DGA and BAFTA went for Greengrass, Cuaron, McQueen, O. Russell, and Scorsese. Last year both DGA and BAFTA each predicted two nominees, DGA Lee and Spielberg, and BAFTA Lee and Haneke. Does this mean the Director list is set, maybe. There are two Directors who stand on the outside, Spike Jonez for Her, and Alexander Payne for Nebraska. A few days ago I would have picked Jonez over Scorsese, but that match-up with BAFTA and DGA happens so rarely that there has to be a correlation.
Best Actor
Bruce Dern- Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio-The Wolf of Wall StreetChiwetel Ejiofor- 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club
I think Wolf is going to do better than expected, look at all the press the film got, and Martin Scorsese is so beloved these days he could direct anything and get nominated. I finally bumped out Robert Redford, and put in his younger self Leonardo DiCaprio for Wolf, I think the other four are set. At this point that fifth spot is anyone's guess. Could be Redford, Christian Bale, Idris Elba, Forrest Whitaker, Joaquin Phoenix, and on, and on. My money is on DiCaprio. DiCaprio also got a BAFTA nod, a strong indicator.
Best Actress
Amy Adams-American Hustle
Cate Blanchett- Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock-Gravity
Judi Dench- Philomena
Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks
August: Osage County has no steam other than SAG ensemble nomination, so the actors "liked it." I still think Hustle has the most buzz and Amy Adams will get a nod over Streep. Just a heads up Globe wins do not matter the Oscar ballots were due way before the ceremony. If Adams is snubbed that shows weakness in American Hustle.
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi-Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl-Rush
Bradley Cooper-American HustleMichael Fassbender- 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club
Gandolfini could get a posthumous nomination, and Jonah Hill could sneak in, but I think this list is pretty set, although I would like to see Bruhl and Cooper passed over, they seem to be settled on these two men.
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins-Blue JasmineJennifer Lawrence-American Hustle
Lupita Nyongo-12 Years a Slave
June Squib-Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey-Lee Daniel's The Butler
I think the fifth spot is between two women, Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine, and Julia Roberts for August: Osage County I am going to go with Hawkins for Blue Jasmine, and the reason is because she is is a film that could make the Best Picture race, and even if it does not it will have more nominations than County. I think that works in her favor, Roberts may end up like Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy.
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
PhilomenaThe Wolf of Wall Street
Best Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
The Square
Stories We Tell
20 Feet from Stardom
Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Ernest and Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises
Best Cinematography
The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Prisoners
12 Years a Slave
Best Costume Design
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
Best Film Editing
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Wolf of Wall Street
12 Years a Slave
Best Make-Up/Hairstyling
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
The Great Gatsby
Best Music Original Score
The Book Thief
Gravity
Frozen
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
Best Original Song
Despicable Me 2-Happy
Frozen-Let it Go
The Great Gatsby-Young and Beautiful
Her-The Moon Song
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom-Ordinary Love
Best Production Design
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
12 Years a Slave
Best Sound Editing
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Lone Survivor
Rush
Best Sound Mixing
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
World War Z
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