Friday, January 17, 2014

Gravity and 12 Years a Slave win Big at the Broadcast Film Critics Awards....What Does it Mean for Oscar?

Director Steve McQueen holds up the award for best picture for the film ‘12 Years a Slave’ at the 19th annual Critics' Choice Movie Awards Thursday night.
Last night the Broadcast Film Critics Awards (BFCA) were held their last night, like last year it was on the same day as the Oscar nominations which can be both exciting/awkward.  Exciting for the nominees, especially the ones who win at night, and awkward for those who are not nominated.  Yet beyond Alisha Tyler's awkward/unfunny schtick every looked like they had a blast.

You may say American Hustle won big too, but it did not it won three prizes which do not exist at the Oscars, Best Comedy, Best Comedy Actress (Adams), and Best Ensemble.  The only prize it won which it could win at the Oscars was Make-Up/Hair-Styling, but it was snubbed in this category at the Oscars, which shocked me.  Amy Adams did get to give a speech, but she is not nominated at SAG tomorrow so this does not help her too much.

I am picking on American Hustle a little, but as a leading Oscar nominee it hit a snag last night, or did it?  Do the BFCA winners matter?  Let's look at the big categories.

Best Picture...and the winners have been ....

2001-A Beautiful Mind
2003-The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
2005-Brokeback Mountain
2006-The Departed
2007-No Co Country for Old Men
2008-Slumdog Millionaire
2009-The Hurt Locker
2010-The Social Network
2011-The Artist

They have only missed the winner 3 times in the last 12 years, wow 12 years, I smell fate.  In the recent televised history both the Golden Globes and BFCA pick The Social Network.  The Weinstein Company pushed The King's Speech on to a win, pay attention to the Producer's Guild Award.  I still think history is on the side of Slave, and if not Slave Gravity.

The acting awards were "different" before 2003 only 3 nominees, so if you look at the track record after that there are some interesting statistics.

The BFCA only missed once in Best Actor, in 2011.  George Clooney won for The Descendants while Jean Dujardin won the Oscar for the Artist.  This is a category to pay attention to, DiCaprio and Dern still have a shot, but this year's winner Matthew McConaughey is out front.

Watch out Cate Blanchett, the BFCA have a spottier track record here, especially when it comes to honoring acclaimed actresses.  Meryl Streep won this award twice, both times in a tie in 2008, and 2009.  The 2008 tie was for her performance in Doubt, she tied with Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married, the award eventually went to Kate Winslet when the Academy reversed her category fraud.  In 2009 she won won for Julie & Julia; she tied with Sondra Bullock who won the Oscar for the Blind Side.  In 2011 Viola Davis won the BFCA for The Help, but Meryl Streep won the Oscar for The Iron Lady.  Last year's winner was Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty but Jennifer Lawrence won the Oscar for Silver Linings Playbook.

Is Cate safe?  Cate will win SAG, but watch out for the non nominated Adams, she won the Globe and has never won before.  Winslet won because she was overdue, Bullock won because she worked the room, Streep won because she was overdue for a third win, and Lawrence won because Playbook was more liked than Zero Dark.  What do all of these elements mean for Blanchett, they mean beware in my opinion, Adams is the most likely winner from Hustle.  Adams is overdue fifth nomination, and can work a room, plus Hustle is well liked.  Blanchett has the overdue second win going for her.

Should Jared Leto watch out too?  No the Supporting Actor aware is his, but the the BFCA have missed 4 times.  The four times they missed there was no clear front runner during the award season, and the Supporting Actor was won by multiple different men.  Leto has been sweeping.

The BFCA have not been perfect in the Supporting Actress category either since 2003 they have missed 4 times, the last time was 2008, but the awarded Kate Winslet who won the lead trophy.  I am not sure i count that, and before 2008 they were less likely to be Oscar rubber stamps.  While many think Lawrence will get her second, Lupita Nyong'o is the front runner to get the acting prize for 12 Years Best Picture win.

Last but not least Director, Ben Affleck won director here last year, and on the day he was snubbed by the Oscars, his speech was interesting, and helped push for a Best Director win.  Who thought Affleck was going to be snubbed, no one, the eventual winner was Ang Lee.  Could this year be like 2010 when Fincher won?  Fincher was the obvious auteur choice to win Best Director, but was bested by Tom Hooper at the Oscars, is David O. Russell this years Tom Hooper?  I think Cuaron has this in the bag, but pay attention to DGA, and BAFTA.

Pay attention to the winners of the Guilds and BAFTA, they will be good guide posts to who will win this prize.

Here is the full list of the winners from last night:

Best Actor in a Comedy: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Best Actress in a Comedy: Amy Adams, American Hustle
Best Comedy MovieAmerican Hustle
Best Actor in an Action Movie: Mark Wahlberg, Lone Survivor
Best Actress in an Action Movie: Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Best Action MovieLone Survivor
Best Acting EnsembleAmerican Hustle
Best Foreign Language FilmBlue Is the Warmest Color
Best Animated FeaturedFrozen
Best Young Actor/Actress: Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Score: Steven Price, Gravity
Best Sci-Fi/Horror MovieGravity
Best Documentary Feature20 Feet from Stardom
Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Best Song: Robert Lopez & Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Frozen
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Best Art DirectionThe Great Gatsby
Best Costume DesignThe Great Gatsby
Best Hair & MakeupAmerican Hustle
Best Visual EffectsGravity
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Best Editing: Alfonso Cuaron & Mark Sanger, Gravity
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Picture12 Years a Slave

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