On January 3rd the Producer's Guild Award (PGA) nominations will be announced. Sasha Stone over at awardsdaily.com has compiled an incredible analysis on this award, and the impact on both Oscar nominees, and eventual winners. Over the last few years the Academy Awards rules for Best Picture have changed, in both 2009 and 2010 there were 10 nominees, meanwhile in 2011 their could be anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees (9 films made the final cut at Oscar). The PGA maintain their ten nominee rule, thus making this group more help in determining the top contenders for the top prize rather than a better statistical analysis on all of the winners.Last years set of nominees were as follows:
- The Artist (Winner)
- Bridesmaids (replaced by Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
- The Descendants (AA nominee)
- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (replaced by Tree of Life)
- The Help (AA nominee)
- Hugo (AA nominee)
- The Ides of March (only 9 nominees)
- Midnight in Paris (AA nominee)
- Moneyball (AA nominee)
- War Horse (AA nominee)
Of last year's nominees The Artist, The Descendants, War Horse, Hugo The Help, Moneyball, and Midnight in Paris were sure fire nominees. While precursors could have narrowed that list down a bit those 7 films seemed to be the most solid. Bridesmaids made the cut because of its big box office, btu was never a serious contender. To be honest I am shocked Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close made it in over The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and The Ides of March. In the end who knows what made those two the eventual Best Picture nominees, but they meet the different extremes in regard to critical reception.
With the new Academy structure for voting the Best Picture race goes back to being about the top 5-10 films they are passionate about rather than checking off 10 films like within 2009 and 2010. In 2010 the list almost matched up 10 for 10 with Winter's Bone replacing The Town at the Academy Awards. In 2009 the PGA went 9 for 10 as well, the PGA nominated Invictus while the Oscars nominated The Blind Side.
Year after year the PGA usually match up, missing one of the Best Picture nominees, 2008 The Reader, 2007 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, 2006 Dreamgirls, 2005 Walk the Line, and so on. So what does this mean? With a definitive 10 nominees we could have a year like last year where as many three films do not line up, or as we know based on statistics one "bigger" film will receive a nominations and will not be in the Oscar line-up. One of the important statistics that comes from this award is the eventual winner, although within this shortened Oscar season this may change. So who will make the the top ten? Here goes nothing:
The films guaranteed to make the cut
Argo
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
I would argue that if the Academy goes back to five films, or there were five films nominated this year these would be the five, although with Les Miserables mixed reviews, it could have fallen into a Dreamgirls situation, but these seem to have the most passionate, ardent fan base in the Picture category.
The Strong Bets
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
All of these films are solid, doing well at the box office (or performed well at the box office), and have the feel of strongly produced films. If there are only 8 nominees I would argue that these would be the 8, and this could be the case. Rather than muddying up the waters the Academy may want a clean 8. However based on precursor awards these are the best performing films.
The Last Two Spots...
Before I even list off these last two spots all I have to say is that they are tough to predict, these last two spots are the two films which based on probability may not make the cut, but I have to go with my gut. In alpha order my thoughts:
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel-SAG and Golden Globe nominee, did excellent at the box office, while these have direct impact, the film was a hit on all levels, and has a strong shot at a Best Picture nomination.
Beasts of the Southern Wild-While the film has made the top ten at Critics Choice, National Board of Review, and American Film Institute, does no Globe nominations mean something? Maybe, but this could also be the art house film that makes the cut.
The Dark Knight Rises-The Dark Knight was a nominee, but does this film have the legs to also make the cut, I unfortunately do feel as though this film will, but it still has a shot, namely because its an impeccable concluding chapter.
Flight-Never count out a film like this, with great passion and determination, this could last year's Extreme Loud type Oscar nominee. The only draw back is that Flight has not made major award shows Best Picture list.
The Master-This year's Tree of Life, although I am actually not convinced people "love" this film the way folks loved Tree of Life. The Master made the Critics Choice top ten, but I am not convinced that's enough to help them here.
Skyfall-The most successful James Bond film at the box office and critically, at the moment the film is the fourth highest grossing film of the year, and this is the place where all of these accomplishments may just be rewarded. On the other hand its a Bond film.
And now my final 10
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt. Skyfall
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