Monday, December 31, 2012

Oscar Roundup 2012: Ineligibility Shades Writer's Guild Nominees, and eventual Oscar Screenplay Nominees


As the field narrows, the Globes announced, SAG announced, the critics lists out, and the Oscar ballots due, the Guild Awards may less and less of an impact of awards season.  The Writer's Guild Awards are one of the least successful precursors, mainly because they rules a good amount of scripts ineligible, and thus prevent a clear indicator of a stronger percentage of nominees.
Let's look at the past two years statistics:
2011
Original Screenplay (WGA on Left, Oscar on Right)
Win Win
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Bridesmaids
50/50
A Separation
Young Adult
Margin Call
Midnight in Paris
Midnight in Paris
Adapted Screenplay
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Ides of March
The Help
Tinker Tailor Solider Spy
Moneyball
Moneyball
The Descendants
The Descendants
Hugo
Hugo


In 2011 only 2 films matched in the Original Screenplay category, and three within the Adapted category, most of the discrepancies came because of ineligibility.  This ineligibility problem has happened year after year, and proves to make predicting these categories challenging.



2010

Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The King’s Speech
Please Give
Another Year
Inception
Inception
The Kids are all Right
The Kids are all Right
The Fighter
The Fighter

Adapted Screenplay
I Love You Phillip Morris
Winter’s Bone
The Town
Toy Story 3
The Social Network
The Social Network
127 Hours
127 Hours
True Grit
True Grit

2001
 Original Screenplay
Moulin Rouge
Memento
The Man who Wasn’t There
Amelie
Gosford Park
Gosford Park
Monster’s Ball
Monster’s Ball
The Royal Tenenbaums
The Royal Tenenbaums

Adapted Screenplay
Black Hawk Down
Shrek
Bridget Jone’s Diary
In the Bedroom
A Beautiful Mind
A Beautiful Mind
Ghost World
Ghost World
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring
Looking at 2010, and 2001 both years seem to follow that strong pattern that only 3 out of 5 nominees make it to the Academy Awards, so what films are the likely nominees this year?
WGA Original Screenplay Nominees

Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdom
Looper
Flight
The Master
Strong Ineligible Contenders
Django Unchained
Amour
The Intouchables
The Impossible
Middle of Nowhere
Look for these to be the top five at the WGA, but come Oscar time Looper either Flight or The Master will be replaced with Amour, and Django Unchained. The Oscars typically have a foreign language 
nominee in this category, and they are not going to ignore this aspect of Django.


WGA Adapted Screenplay Nominees
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Strong Ineligible Contenders
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
The Deep Blue Sea
Les Miserables 
Rust and Bone

Look for Perks to be the unfortunate casualty here, being replaced by Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Fans of this film will want Benh Zeitlin to get some major attention, and unfortunately this is the most realistic place for him to be nominated.  This is going to be the first time in 4 years most of the nominees line-up.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Oscar Roundup 2012: Producer's Guild Tries to Narrow Down the Field

On January 3rd the Producer's Guild Award (PGA) nominations will be announced.  Sasha Stone over at awardsdaily.com has compiled an incredible analysis on this award, and the impact on both Oscar nominees, and eventual winners.  Over the last few years the Academy Awards rules for Best Picture have changed, in both 2009 and 2010 there were 10 nominees, meanwhile in 2011 their could be anywhere between 5 and 10 nominees (9 films made the final cut at Oscar).  The PGA maintain their ten nominee rule, thus making this group more help in determining the top contenders for the top prize rather than a better statistical analysis on all of the winners.

Last years set of nominees were as follows:


  • The Artist (Winner)
  • Bridesmaids (replaced by Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
  • The Descendants (AA nominee)
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (replaced by Tree of Life)
  • The Help (AA nominee)
  • Hugo (AA nominee)
  • The Ides of March (only 9 nominees)
  • Midnight in Paris (AA nominee)
  • Moneyball (AA nominee)
  • War Horse (AA nominee)


Of last year's nominees The Artist, The Descendants, War Horse, Hugo The Help, Moneyball, and Midnight in Paris were sure fire nominees.  While precursors could have narrowed that list down a bit those 7 films seemed to be the most solid.  Bridesmaids made the cut because of its big box office, btu was never a serious contender.  To be honest I am shocked Tree of Life and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close made it in over The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and The Ides of March.  In the end who knows what made those two the eventual Best Picture nominees, but they meet the different extremes in regard to critical reception. 

With the new Academy structure for voting the Best Picture race goes back to being about the top 5-10 films they are passionate about rather than checking off 10 films like within 2009 and 2010.  In 2010 the list almost matched up 10 for 10 with Winter's Bone replacing The Town at the Academy Awards.  In 2009 the PGA went 9 for 10 as well, the PGA nominated Invictus while the Oscars nominated The Blind Side.

Year after year the PGA usually match up, missing one of the Best Picture nominees, 2008 The Reader, 2007 The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, 2006 Dreamgirls, 2005 Walk the Line, and so on.  So what does this mean?  With a definitive 10 nominees we could have a year like last year where as many three films do not line up, or as we know based on statistics one "bigger" film will receive a nominations and will not be in the Oscar line-up.  One of the important statistics that comes from this award is the eventual winner, although within this shortened Oscar season this may change.  So who will make the the top ten?  Here goes nothing:

The films guaranteed to make the cut
Argo
Lincoln
Les Miserables 
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

I would argue that if the Academy goes back to five films, or there were five films nominated this year these would be the five, although with Les Miserables mixed reviews, it could have fallen into a Dreamgirls situation, but these seem to have the most passionate, ardent fan base in the Picture category.

The Strong Bets
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom

All of these films are solid, doing well at the box office (or performed well at the box office), and have the feel of strongly produced films.  If there are only 8 nominees I would argue that these would be the 8, and this could be the case.  Rather than muddying up the waters the Academy may want a clean 8.  However based on precursor awards these are the best performing films.

The Last Two Spots...

Before I even list off these last two spots all I have to say is that they are tough to predict, these last two spots are the two films which based on probability may not make the cut, but I have to go with my gut. In alpha order my thoughts:

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel-SAG and Golden Globe nominee, did excellent at the box office, while these have direct impact, the film was a hit on all levels, and has a strong shot at a Best Picture nomination.

Beasts of the Southern Wild-While the film has made the top ten at Critics Choice, National Board of Review, and American Film Institute, does no Globe nominations mean something?  Maybe, but this could also be the art house film that makes the cut.

The Dark Knight Rises-The Dark Knight was a nominee, but does this film have the legs to also make the cut, I unfortunately do feel as though this film will, but it still has a shot, namely because its an impeccable concluding chapter. 

Flight-Never count out a film like this, with great passion and determination, this could last year's Extreme Loud type Oscar nominee.  The only draw back is that Flight has not made major award shows Best Picture list.

The Master-This year's Tree of Life, although I am actually not convinced people "love" this film the way folks loved Tree of Life.  The Master made the Critics Choice top ten, but I am not convinced that's enough to help them here.

Skyfall-The most successful James Bond film at the box office and critically, at the moment the film is the fourth highest grossing film of the year, and this is the place where all of these accomplishments may just be rewarded.  On the other hand its a Bond film.

And now my final 10

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Les Miserables 
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Alt. Skyfall

Most Anticipated Films of 2013 (the Blockbusters)

2012 was a big year for the box office, with beginning of two massive series The Avengers and The Hunger Games, the concluding chapter to the Batman series, The Dark Knight rises, and the Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 2.  Along with these films James Bond proved to have his most successful film ever with Skyfall.  2013's big budget films may not prove to be as strong as 2012, but there are some great potential films on the way.  Here is the list of some potential block busters, and some that could major losers.

March is the first month with the biggest potential, although February's Live Free or Die Hard will capitalize on a slow winter.

Oz: The Great and Powerful (March)-This film looks like it could be great, and like with the live action Alice in Wonderland, there is a built in fan base of Oz obsessed fans.  With a great cast including James Franco, Mila Kunis, Michelle Williams, and Rachel Weisz, this tale will do great at the box office.

The Host (March)-Another Stephanie Meyer film comes to theatres, The Host does not have the same following as Twilight, but Meyer fans may just not be able to resist the spell she has on her followers.  With the talented Saorise Ronan, the film could surprise and not be as bad as Twilight.  One thing is for sure The Host will cash in at the box office.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation (March)-The first GI Joe was not a big hit, fans showed up, but disappointment soon followed, when the film strayed away from the actual background, and the characters.  This sequel packs the punches with Bruce Willis, The Rock, and was re-shot to include the box office king Channing Tatum.  Knowing what they know now this sequel may be an even bigger hit than the first film.

Move quickly past April, and straight into May for the beginning of the Summer box office bonanza.  May is stacked with four weeks of back to back films that could pull in a lot of money at the box office.  Making the question, why don't the studios spread out these films more, an obvious question.  I feel like Arthur from The Holiday when I talk about things like this, but the studio system will only get worse before it gets better.  Check out the rest of the Summer too!

Iron Man 3 (May)-The last film opened strong, but flat lined as the weeks went on.  Fans showed up right away, but soon realized this sequel did not have the heart, and was not as good as the first one.  The third film's trailer has me excited, and worried they are once again taking on too much, and not keeping the film simple enough.  The villain Mandarin could be a big hit, or flop.  One thing is for sure, fans will head to this in droves the first weekend, especially with another tent pole Avengers clip at the end.

The Great Gatsby (May)-This Leo DiCaprio film was first intended to open around Christmas this year, but the film was pushed back to May 2013.  That signaled my non existent Spidey sense that this was a flop in the making, and the studios were pushing it back because they did not want to compete with Oscar fare.  This may be true, but every time I see the preview or mention this film, people are still excited to see Leo on the big screen.  Throw in some Baz Lurhman theatrics and even more are sold.

Star Trek: Into Darkness (May)-My most anticipated film of the year. The original was one of the best films of 2009, and the sequel looks just as good, although that's something hard act to follow.  With J.J. Abrams still in the director's seat this film series will get the love and care it deserves to continue on, the cast is impeccable and with Benedict Cumberbatch rumored to play Khan, there is no stopping this sequel.

Fast and the Furious 6 (May)-I honestly do not get the appeal of this series, but the fifth film was one of the highest grossing films of the year, a few years ago.  With many of the same major players returning there is no reason fans will not show up in full force.  I was hoping they would call this The Fastest and Most Furious, but no luck.

Man of Steel (June)-The last Superman reboot, Superman Returns starring Brandon Routh as the titular character was a massive train wreck.  Director Bryan Singer gave up on the third X-Men to take on this project, and that film failed.  Man of Steel, looks like it could be a good step in the next level with smarter casting, but a director who is even more self-indulgant than any working today, Zack Snyder.  Superman is the most popular super hero, for some odd reason, and his fans will show up in their red capes, and potentially even some tight blue spandex, God willing.

This is the End (June)-I have been looking forward to this Seth Rogen directed/written project for years with Seth Rogen, James Franco, Paul Rudd, Jonah Hill, Emma Watson, Jason Segal, Mindy Kailing, Michael Cera, Danny McBride, Jay Baruchal, and many more, all playing, well themselves, in an apocalyptic comedy.  You could not ask for a better cast?

Monsters University (June)-One of, if not the most under rated Pixar films.  Monsters Inc was re-released in 3-D this December, but the re-release has flatlined at the box office.  The reason, people are tired of the Disney 3-D re-release.  This is "the big Pixar film" of the year and like years past this will have people excited to go to the movies.

World War Z (June)-The book has a lot of fans, but trailer, and Pitt's casting has seemed to polarize people left and right.  Yet after vampires zombies are the next most popular type of movie and television series.  The preview looks action packed, and will no doubt draw large crowds.  While I do not think this will make massive amounts of money, and may not do as well as planned.  Marc Forster (Finding Neverland) is an odd pick as the director of this film.

The Lone Ranger (July)- Johnny Depp is not always a big box office draw, but that's typically when they are smaller films.  Johnny Depp and Gore Verbinski worked together on another wild west interpretation, Rango.  While Rango was an atypical animated film, The Lone Ranger has a following, and this big budget film could be a big hit, or a massive flop.

Despicable Me 2 (July)-The first was a sleeper hit that took the box office by storm, and audiences hearts melted for Gru and the three young girls.  Who knows what the plot of this film will be, but my bet is that audiences will show up yet again to watch the sequel.

Pacific Rim (July)-Guillermo del Torro's giant robots got the most attention from Comic Con, and based on that reception this films word of mouth, has helped get a lot of interest in the film.  This film could be a massive hit in the vein of Transformers, with audiences needing giant robots.  Hopefully the quality matches the height of the robots.

The Wolverine (July)-New details of the timeline make this film even more intriguing.  The Wolverine is set to take place after Last Stand, and not after soon after the Wolverine Origins film.  I am a bit shocked by this piece of news, but this could be be a smart move.  The original film was a massive flop creatively, and even though fans showed up opening weekend they soon lost interest.  Wolverine is a popular character, and people may not lose interest in him just yet.

Elysium (August)-Blonkamp's original film District 9, was an awesome sci-fi Best Picture nominee, and was one of the most original films.  With an all-star cast including Matt Damon, Jodie Foster, and Sharito Copely (from District 9).  The combination of another sci-fi adventure with this director, and cast makes this a can't miss film.

As the Summer ends, the number of "major" films diminish, but there are still a lot of highly anticipated films for fans.  From super heroes, to a girl who plays with fire, and a highly inappropriate news person, the fall and winter are shaping up to be one fun time.

Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (October)-The first Sin City was released seven long years ago, rarely does a studio wait so long for a sequel, but this could be worth the wait.  With the entire original cast returning, and Frank Miller, and Robert Rodriguez directing this could, and will be one of the most anticipated films of the year.

Thor: The Dark World (November)-Thor is the most underrated Marvel film that built up to The Avengers balancing humor, mythology, and great action.  Thor took in a solid box office take, and like with Iron Man 3 people will be excited to watch another film, which will lead up to the second Avengers film, although this is shaping up to be a great sequel.

The Hunger Games Series: Catching Fire (November)-With no Avengers, or even a massive hit like The Dark Knight Rises, this will be the biggest film at the box office next year. There is rarely a November release that trounces the summer releases, but Katniss Everdeen will take down the boys.  The Hunger Games has more power behind it than Twilight, and people will be lining up at midnight, just as fast as Katniss volunteered to be the tribute.

The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug (December)-The first part of The Hobbit has made 222 million domestic (so far) and even with poor word of mouth fans of the book, and films are lining up, this film will get the same reception next year.

Anchorman: The Legend Continues (December)-I like scotch scotchy scotch scotch.  The gang is back together again, and one of the most quotable bro picks is getting a sequel.  Even if this is awful people are going to make this a must see film of the year.