The Oscars Seth McFarlane Entertained, but the Show Dragged

Everyone was nervous about Seth, and while his opening number started a bit slow, and got off to a bumpy start I think he did a great job as the emcee.  I am going to steal a line from my friend Karl who said "it was the perfect perfect blend of class and crass." The opening bit with Shatner was great, MacFarlane knows how to to bring that hilariously awkward pop culture reference into the mix.  Watching Channing Tatum, and Charlize Theron was magnetic, then see Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Daniel Radcliffe soft shoe was fun as well.

Throughout the show Seth throughout some jokes with edge relating to Lincoln's death (too soon), a Chris Brown/Rihanna joke, and one of the best jokes introducing Christopher Plummer with a Sound of Music joke.  Although Christopher Plummer gets this award shows Grumpy Old Man Award! In contrast opening the show and getting Tommy Lee Jones to laugh was hilarious, maybe expected, but brilliant.

Music was the central focus of the show, and paying tribute to the role music plays in film, and while it was fun to see Catherine Zeta Jones lip sync, Jennifer Hudson steal the night, the Lis Miserables cast sing better than they did in the film (except Russell Crowe), Shirley Bassey's tribute to Bond with Goldfinger, Adele, and Norah Jones singing their perspective Best Song nominees, and Babs paying tribute to the great Marvin Hamlisch. Whew, I got tired just typing that.

I think it was a bit tacky not having all the Best Song nominees performed on the show, have them all performed or none of them, and my money is on none of them.  I love Babs, and Marvin Hamlisch but this post in memoriam was not needed.  While I love movie music this lacked focus.  Oh how can I forget the awkward closing number, just say good night, some of us on the east coast have work in the morning.

Along with songs with no pay, the tribute to the Bond was wasted, and fell flat.  It was cool to see the clips of the different films, but what was the point?  The marketing on this was off the charts, but they did not reunite the Bonds after Shirley Bassey's number.  Having Adele perform later and not be connected to this made no sense.  Damn you Pierce Brosnan for backing out of this!

With the winners/presenters/speeches let's look at this from a Good, Bad, Ugly Perspective

The Good 

Ang Lee winning director (although I would have preferred Zeitlin), but his win was better than one for Spielberg.  Lee's film was a technical marvel and his direction was great.

The speech from Innocente was the best of evening, celebrating art.

Lincoln winning more than just one award for Daniel Day Lewis (Production Design as well)

Silver Linings Playbook only winning one award, and Harvey could not buy them anymore, including a win for DeNiro.

Speeches from Daniel Day Lewis and Jennifer Lawrence were good!  DDL had me tearing up because he seemed really appreciative, then had me in stitches when he talked about his and Meryl's freaky Friday with Margaret Thatcher in Lincoln.  Even though J-Law tripped you could tell just appreciative she was and, it was sweet to wish Emanuelle Riva a Happy Birthday!

Ted and Mark Wahlberg were the only entertaining duo who presented, glad he only did his Ted schtick, loved this!

The Bad 

The Django wins, sorry Waltz is a lead, and that is Quentin's worst screenplay (even worse than Jackie Brown)

Anne Hathaway's speech (and outfit) while her win isn't the worst (although Field or Hunt deserved it more) she had all this time to practice, and prep, but she just never nailed it, and I still am not a huge fan.

Most of the presenters who tried to do something were mediocre, I guess at Oscar if you can't hack it just present

The Ugly 

Zero Dark Thirty winning only one award in the sound category when it was the best film of the year

Les Miserables winning 3 Oscars!

Beasts of the Southern Wild going home empty handed, criminal

In a year with so much upset potential these awards were incredibly predictable, and boring, I got 23 out of 26 right (only missing Production Design, the Sound tie, and Documentary Short)

Paul Rudd and Melissa McCarthy were beyond lame, they will not be hosting anytime soon.

The Cool 

Having Michelle Obama present Best Picture with Jack Nicholson, may be one of the oddest/coolest things I have ever seen.

Ben's sheer genuine appreciation while accepting Best Picture, Grant Heslov is in the not cool category, we realize Argo was directed by Affleck, the Academy knows!!

I did not place Argo's win into any categories, because I like and respect the film, but I am not sure it fits within any of these categories.  

Academy Award Week (2013): Best Director (No Your Pick Can't be Ben Affleck)

This year one of the most interesting, if not the most interesting race is Best Director.  Over the years at the Academy Awards Best Picture and Best Director often match up.  Over the last twenty years (from 1992-2012) Best Picture and Best Director have matched up 16 times, which is an impressive statistic.  This year Argo's name is chiseled on the statue already, and unless if you have been living under a rock you know Ben Affleck was snubbed.  Affleck has won this award at the BFCA, Golden Globes, DGA, and BAFTA.  Without Affleck nominated this makes this race a lot more interesting than I can remember.

While I am not going to go on a rant about sexism within the film industry I am a bit baffled at why more people over cited Affleck's snub instead of Bigelow's snub.  I do believe that this will go down as one of the biggest mistakes in Oscar history.

How do you define great direction, and who was "snubbed?"  One way at looking at great direction is by using auteur theory.  Auteur theory "holds that a director's film reflects the director's personal creative vision, as if they were the primary "auteur" (the French word for "author"). In spite of—and sometimes even because of—the production of the film as part of an industrial process, the auteur's creative voice is distinct enough to shine through all kinds of studio interference and through the collective process."  While this perspective is a bit more old school and looks at film as a one man show, many would attribute this vision to greats like Orson Welles, and Alfred Hitchcock.  These men controlled the vision for their films.

If you look at this year's director race many would describe David O. Russell's direction using auteur theory.  O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook is a passion project dedicated to his son.  O. Russell's film is about a bi-polar man returning home to his family.  O'Russell has talked openly about his son being bi-polar and what it meant for him to make this film.

Benh Zeitlin who directed Beasts of the Southern Wild directed the script and scored the film.  This was Zeitlin's first film and made on a shoe string budget.  Zeitlin's heart and soul went into this film, and his vision drives the heart of the film.

One of the reasons auteur theory is widely criticized is because it negates the contribution of other people who worked on the film stating the the director is the end all be all.  Zeitlin and O. Russell did not create their films out of thin air, no man is an island after all.  If you look at Steven Spielberg's work in Lincoln and here him talk about Tony Kushner's script, and every aspect of the film you feel this sense of teamwork.

This couldn't be more true with Ang Lee and his direction of Life of Pi.  Lee's work with his cinematographer, visual effects team, screenwriter, and son on created an beautiful experience from a book that was thought to be impossible to adapt to the big screen.  The use of 3D technology along with many other elements transcends most traditional aspects of film making, and made this an incredible achievement.

The nominees are 

Michael Haneke-Amour

Ang Lee-Life of Pi

David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg-Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild

Who will win?  Without a previous winner/front runner in the group this leads things wide open.  While many would probably say Spielberg I just do not think he is going to win.  My gut tells me this is a race between David O. Russell and Ang Lee.  In the past director's win in this category have won a good deal of the time because the film "feels important" or because it has an "epic" nature."  Think Ben-Hur, Lord of the Rings, Schindler's List, Out of Africa, The Sound of Music.  There are location shots, visual effects, and so on.  This could be Beasts, Pi, or Lincoln.  Zeitlin is in fifth leaving Lincoln and Pi to fit that category.  Pi and Lincoln are both well respected films, from respected directors.  Before I go on about those two films like Silver Linings Playbook rarely win director, Annie Hall fits within that category, but that rarely happens.  So I am going to go with my gut and say Ang Lee.

Will Win: Ang Lee-Life of Pi

Spoilers: Steven Spielberg and David O. Russell

Oscar Roundup 2012: Anna Karenina, Life of Pi, and Skyfall win at Art Director's Guil

At the Art Director's Guild (ADG) awards tonight three films took home the top honors.  The ADG break down their nominees and winners into three categories: Period Film, Fantasy Film, and Contemporary Film.  This years nominees in each category were as follows:

Period Film
Anna Karenina
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln 

Fantasy Film
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises 
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Prometheus

Contemporary Film
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Flight
The Impossible 
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

The winners in each category were, Anna Karenina, Life of Pi, and Skyfall.  The first two winners have a shot at taking Oscar gold, but since the Academy rarely recognizes contemporary art direction Skyfall did not even make the cut as one of the nominees.

The Oscar nominees would fit within the Best Production Design Category, and the nominees are:

Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln 

Come Oscar time this is is actually going to be a hard category to predict, Anna Karenina and Life of Pi both have their own merits, but this race is between these two films.  Look for Pi to have Hugo like wins, sweeping most of the technical races.

Argo Wins at Producer's Guild Awards (PGA), Along with Wreck-it Ralph, andModern Family, and Homeland Win on the TV Side

Tonight Argo is continuing its massive awards haul in Best Picture categories taking home the top prize, the Daryl F. Zanuk Award for Outstanding Producer of a Theatrical Motion Picture, or the Best Picture award at the Producer's Guild of America.  This film has won three major Best Picture awards from the PGA Broadcast Film Critics Association (BFCA), and the Golden Globes.  Will Argo win at the Oscars?  Argo is missing one key component a Best Director nominee, and the last and only film to win without a Best Director nomination was Driving Miss Daisy (1989).  Films also typically win Best Picture, and Best Director, the two honors seems to come as a pair more often than not (but not always).  Let's look at the last few years to see how the PGA has done:

2011: "The Artist"
2010: "The King's Speech"*
2009: "The Hurt Locker"*
2008: "Slumdog Millionaire"*
2007: "No Country for Old Men"*
2006: "Little Miss Sunshine"
2005: "Brokeback Mountain"
2004: "The Aviator"
2003: "The Lord of the Rings: "The Return of the King"*
2002: "Chicago"*
2001: "Moulin Rouge!"
2000: "Gladiator"*

From 2000 through 2011, 8 of 12 films that won at the PGA went on to win at Oscar.  The Last time a film won at PGA and not at the Oscars was 6 years ago, and that was Little Miss Sunshine.  Let's look at the year's Oscar and PGA did not line up.

In 2006 the PGA winner was Little Miss Sunshine and the Oscar winner was The Departed.  First strike Little Miss Sunshine was a comedy with no director nomination, or editing nomination  up against Martin Scorsese who had never won an Oscar.  Little Miss Sunshine won SAG too, while Martin Scorsese won DGA.  To be fair films directed by two people rarely get nominations for both directors at Oscars, West Side Story was an exception, but it was West Side Story.

2005 the PGA went to Brokeback Mountain and the Oscar went to Crash.  Brokeback was the overwhelming favorite, but was missing one key component, a Best Editing nomination, which Crash received and won.  The editing nomination is one of the biggest components or clues as to who can win at the Oscars.  Crash also won SAG, but was not nominated at the Globes, one of the rare times the Best Picture was not even nominated at the Globes.

2004 the PGA went to The Aviator and Oscar went to Million Dollar Baby.  This really was the Aviator vs. Million Dollar Baby Oscars.  The Aviator cleaned up in the tech categories winning Best Editing, Art Direction, Costume Design, Cinematography and Best Supporting Actress.  Meanwhile Million Dollar Baby won Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor.  The Aviator actually won more awards, than the Best Picture winner, but everyone loved Clint!  During this season there was a clear split in what was "the best" critics and SAG went for Sideways, Globes and PGA went for The Aviator, but DGA picking Clint Eastwood was a sign the Oscars were going to change things.

2001 Moulin Rouge! won PGA and A Beautiful Mind won the Oscar.  A Beautiful Mind won the Globe for Best Drama, and Ron Howard won the DGA.  This started to that concept of a lack on consensus trend, which you see in 2004 and 2006.

A Beautiful Mind, Million Dollar Baby, and The Departed (although a little violent for their taste) were or felt like the right picks from the Academy's point of view.  A Beautiful Mind was a clever bio-pic.  Million Dollar Baby was about an upstart female boxer.  The Departed was a chance to finally honor Marty.  The only unexplainable year is 2005, but the lack of a Best Editing nomination helps with that (somewhat).  Brokeback losing was an interesting sign that Hollywood may not be as ok with "the gay thing" as one would expect.

So what does this mean for Argo?  Argo was not the critics darling that was Zero Dark Thirty and Amour, but they are not going to win the top prize this year.  Lincoln has the most nominations, but Daniel Day-Lewis appears to be the only person winning for that right now.  Life of Pi like The Aviator will clean up in the tech categories or at least do well like Hugo last year.  Tonight's SAG awards will either clear things up or make things cloudier and less predictable.  The Weinstein Machine will most likely steam roll the competition giving Silver Linings Playbook the win.  In that case who ends up on top?  The odd answer is Lincoln.  This year looks like those years that lack consensus, and what film came out on top most of the time, the one with little to no solid precursor strength.  That would be Lincoln.  

Argo won here tonight because of the hard work the producers to get this film made, and this film could repeat at the Oscar in Best Picture, this is within the realm of possibility.  The true test will be the guild awards and who wins.  SAG, DGA, WGA, and ACE. If Argo wins any two of these consider the Best Picture race over.  SAG will likely go to Silver Linings Playbook.  DGA could go to Affleck, but they could also pick Spielberg.  WGA will go to Lincoln's script.  ACE (the editing guild) is the one to watch.  If Argo wins this guild and DGA, along with their PGA win then they should out step Lincoln.  Zero Dark Thirty has a great shot with this guild, and this prize on Oscar night, so they should watch their step.  If you want to win your Oscar pool at work, pay attention to these awards.  At the his point Best Picture is still anyone's guess.

Here are the rest of the winners: 

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Wreck-It Ralph (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Producer: Clark Spencer

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
Searching For Sugar Man (Sony Pictures Classics)
Producers: Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn

The Norman Felton Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television, Drama
Homeland (Showtime)
Producers: Henry Bromell, Alexander Cary, Michael Cuesta, Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon, Chip Johannessen, Michael Klick, Meredith Stiehm

The David L. Wolper Award for Outstanding Producer of Long-Form Television
Game Change (HBO)
Producers: Gary Goetzman, Tom Hanks, Jay Roach, Amy Sayres, Steven Shareshian, Danny Strong

The Danny Thomas Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television, Comedy
Modern Family (ABC)
Producers: Cindy Chupack, Paul Corrigan, Abraham Higginbotham, Ben Karlin, Steven Levitan, Christopher Lloyd, Jeff Morton, Dan O’Shannon, Jeffrey Richman, Chris Smirnoff, Brad Walsh, Bill Wrubel, Danny Zuker

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Non-Fiction Television:
American Masters (PBS)
Producers: Prudence Glass, Susan Lacy, Julie Sacks

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Competition Television
The Amazing Race (CBS)
Producers: Jerry Bruckheimer, Elise Doganieri, Jonathan Littman, Bertram van Munster, Mark Vertullo

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Live Entertainment & Talk Television
The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
Producers: Meredith Bennett, Stephen Colbert, Richard Dahm, Paul Dinello, Barry Julien, Matt Lappin, Emily Lazar, Tanya Michnevich Bracco, Tom Purcell, Jon Stewart

The Award for Outstanding Sports Program
Real Sports with Bryant Gumbel (HBO)

The Award for Outstanding Children’s Program
Sesame Street (PBS)
“The Weight of the Nation for Kids: The Great Cafeteria Takeover” (HBO)

Life of Pi is a Visually Beautiful Journey About Self Discovery

Life of Pi (4 out of 5 Stars)

Directed by Ang Lee (Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon, Brokeback Mountain)

Written by David Magee (Finding Neverland)

Starring: Suraj Sharma, and Irrfan Khan

Every year there are a few films, which just seem like plain ole Oscar bait, Pi appeared to be one of those films.  Sometimes Oscar bait can be a good, and bad thing, because sometimes these films actually surprise, and become solid films.  I avoided Life of Pi for weeks, but after weeks it was time, and this film succeeds.

The film centers Piscine "Pi" Patel.  As an adult Pi (Khan) meets an author who wants to hear his incredible story .  Pi talks about his experiences as a young boy living in French India.  Throughout this time Pi speaks about his religious journey as Catholic, Hindu, and Buddhist.  Throughout these religious experiences a young Pi searches for meaning in his own young life.  While his father abhors the concept of religion, and his taking on three different his mother connects with him through this journey.  Pi's family owns a zoo, and when the town decides they want the zoo gone, the family heads to Canada.  While on a freighter with his family a storm hits the ship, and Pi hurtled into a life raft forced to tackle an incredible life journey.

Pi's journey and the film itself are set in motion by master director Ang Lee.  Over the years Lee has proven to be one of the best directors creating different worlds.  In 1995's Sense and Sensibility he explored the world of Jane Austen and 1800s British society.  1997's The Ice Storm explored a 1960s key party, familial patterns of the decade, and the point of young sexual exploration.  In 2000 Lee explored two warriors search for a stolen sword and a nobleman's daughters  self exploration in Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.  2005's Brokeback Mountain explored two ranch hands, their special summer while herding, along with their tragic romance.  Looking at just these four films, and Pi you can see Lee's directorial range.

In Life of Pi, Lee takes his directorial skills to a whole new level.  Lee direction has evolved, and his mastery of 3D, like Scorsese's Hugo, is lyrically beautiful.  Lee is one of the most poetic directors he always adds further emotional levels to his films.  Lee's Pi is an emotional experience pulling you in from the first moment.  Pi is a film you don't just watch, but rather one that sets you off on the raft along with the Bengal tiger.

The film is one of the most beautiful films of the years, and the visual effects along with the 3D technology is some of the best of the year.  As you see the different CGI animals, the fish flying at the boat, the island glowing, and many more images this films use of technology and visual mastery is the true star of the film.  Claudio Miranda's cinematography helps capture some beautiful images adding to the visual sumptuousness of the film, and creating an incredibly magical world.  Mychael Danna's score also helps set up the films inspiring journey as Pi himself goes from being a boy searching for himself through religion to an adult coping with the actual experiences of his journey.

As the adult Pi, Khan narrates the story of his own journey with grace, beauty and intense vulnerability.  In Suraj Sharma's first film experience he tackles one of the most challenging roles of his career, and succeeds brilliantly.  As Pi grapples with experiences on the boat Sharma does a great showing the way this young boy forces himself to grow up sooner than expected, and in the closing moments of Sharma's performance is heartbreakingly beautiful.

Beauty is one of the central themes of this film, as this film uses the technical aspects to create one of the most beautiful film experiences.  When you look past the visual the story succeeds, and leaves you thinking long after the experience about the young boy named Pi and his journey with a tiger who became his greatest friend.

Golden Globes Predictions: Film

Best Drama Film
Argo 
Django Unchained 
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty

Lincoln is the front runner with the most nominations, and the Globes typically go with the most nominated film in each category, but Argo is a real threat.  To be honest the Globes like to be unpredictable, so this is a tough category to predict.  My gut says Argo, but something says they will crown the eventual Best Pic winner Lincoln.

Will Win: Lincoln
Spoiler: Argo 

Best Drama Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln
Richard Gere-Arbitage
John Hawkes-The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix-The Master
Denzel Washington-Flight

Day-Lewis is the obvious choice with Denzel as the spoiler, but I am pretty sure no one can take down the President in this race.

Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis-Lincoln
Spoiler-Denzel Washington-Flight

Best Drama Actress
Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard-Rust and Bone
Helen Mirren-Hitchcock
Naomi Watts-The Impossible
Rachel Weisz-The Deep Blue Sea

Chastain is out front, her role is one of the central things folks are talking about with Zero Dark Thirty, and with good reason.  Yet there is a lot of passion for Watts performance; she has a little more celebrity clout to go with that great performance.  Watts is a serious spoiler.

Will Win: Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty
Spoiler:Naomi Watts-The Impossible

Best Comedy/Musical Film
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Silver Linings Playbook

This is a tough call, on one hand the Globes love musical, and on the other Silver Linings Playbook is a Weinstein film.  Two very strong possible winners, but even like with 2008 even Sweeney Todd won over Juno.

Will Win: Les Miserables
Very Big Spoiler: Silver Linings Playbook
Should Win-Moonrise Kingdom

Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical
Jack Black-Bernie
Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables
Ewen McGregor-Salmon Fishing in Yemen
Bill Murray-Hyde Park on Hudson

Another race between Les Mis, and SLP.  Jackman sings, but Cooper proves he's more than a pretty face with some great acting.  I think Jackman takes this award.

Will Win: Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables
Spoiler: Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook
Should win Jack Black-Bernie 

Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical
Emily Blunt-Salmon Fishing in Yemen
Judi Dench-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith-Quartet
Meryl Streep-Hope Springs

There is no way Lawrence will lose this award!

Will and Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence
Spoiler: No One!

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin-Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio-Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master
Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln
Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained

This race is the biggest toss-up, and while many are predicting DiCaprio, which is possible, and would be ironic because he does not have Oscar nomination, I do not think this will happen.  I think race will come down between Jones and Waltz, and I think Waltz may win this award, but I think the Oscar will go to Tommy Lee Jones.  This will probably be the most exciting Oscar race, and is the most unpredictable tonight.

Will Win: Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained
Spoiler and Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams-The Master
Sally Field-Lincoln
Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Helen Hunt-The Sessions
Nicole Kidman-The Paperboy

Hathaway is on a runaway train to win her first Oscar, but Sally Field could always be a spoiler, they like her they really like her!

Will and Should Win-Ann Hathaway-Les Miserables
Spoiler-Sally Field-Lincoln

Best Director
Ben Afflec-Argo
Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Steve Spielberg-Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino-Django Unchained

As weird as this is going to sound, I think Ben Affleck would have won Best Director if he were nominated at the Oscars.  With that said watch out for him and Argo to spoil Spielberg's party here.  I still think the globes will be predictable and go with eventual Oscar winner Steven Spielberg.  I think it would be funny if Bigelow won, because that would mean the BFCA, and Globes broke away from the Oscars.

Will Win: Steven Spielberg-Lincoln
Spoiler: Ben Affleck-Argo
Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Screenplay-Lincoln (with Django as a spoiler)
Best Animated Feature-Frankenweenie
Best Foreign Language Film-Amour
Best Original Score-Lincoln
Best Original Song-"Skyfall" from Skyfall

Argo Wins Top Prizes at the Broadcast Film Critics Awards While the Show Itself Almost Put Me to Sleep

First and foremost the host, Sam Rubin was a bit creepy, and not very funny, I love film critics, but they should never be hosts.  Could they not find anyone?  I will leave him alone, but boy was he bad!  Rubin did not know how to interact with Jackman, Hathaway, but Goodman's punch at him that his interview was Communist torture was one of the best moments of the night.  There was not even enough time to fill the two hours, there was a commercial break between all of the awards at the end.

Beyond the host, I have to ask why they even bother to televise this garbage.  Beyond the CW whoring out stars from their shows, this award show was about as entertaining as watching paint dry. Oh wait, I am watching a patch dry on my wall now and it's actually more interesting to watch.  The show plugged that they are "different" because they had genre awards, which is great and it was fun to see them honor action, comedy etc, but at the sake of showing Best Screenplay or Best Animated Feature?  You are not going to get more viewers because you do this.

I have to say thank God for Rebel Wilson.  Her presentation of the Genius Award to  Judd Apatow, was one of the best moments of the evening.  The two of them made this boring show come to life for the brief moments they were on the stage.

I also have to say that their winners were exceptional, Argo taking Best Picture and Director was awesome.  Chastain winning Best Actress, all of these wins were solid.

Best Picture-Argo
Best Director-Ben Affleck-Argo
Best Actress-Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty

Best Supporting Actor-Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master

Best Supporting Actress-Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Original Screenplay-Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay-Lincoln
Best Foreign Language Film-Amour
Best Documentary Feature-Searching for Sugarman
Best Animated Feature-Wreck-it Ralph
Best Acting Ensemble-Silver Linings Playbook

Best Art Direction-Anna Karenina

Best Cinematography-Life of Pi

Best Editing-Zero Dark Thirty

Best Costume Design-Anna Karenina

Best Makeup-Cloud Atlas

Best Score-Lincoln 

Best Original Song-"Skyfall" from Skyfall

Best Visual Effects-Life of Pi
Best Young Actor/Actress-Quvenzhane Wallis-Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Action Movie-Skyfall
Best Actress in an Action Movie-Jennifer Lawrence-The Hunger Games
Best Actor in an Action Movie-Daniel Craig-Skyfall
Best Sci-Fi/Horror Movie-Looper
Best Comedy Movie-Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actress in a Comedy-Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook
Best Actor in a Comedy-Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings playbook

Oscars go for Lincoln and Life of Pi while Snubbing Affleck and Bigelow

Today the Oscar nominations were announced with hilarious gusto by Emma Stone, and host Seth MacFarlene.  Before going on to the nominations, I must say that MacFarlene and Stone were the best announcers I have ever seen, and if this is any sign MacFarlene is going to be a great host, especially when you start with a Hitler joke.

Lincoln leads the nominations with 12, although Life of Pi is close behind with 11 nominations.  Both Lincoln and Life of Pi have performed the most consistently throughout this award season, and this includes in the most shocking category Best Director.  Spielberg, and Lee are the only two people who have consistently received nominations throughout the award season.  O. Russell has only been nominated by the Broadcast Film Critics, and nowhere else.  Haneke only had BAFTA, and Zeitlin appeared out of thing air, leaving the biggest snubs of the day Bigelow and Affleck in the dust.

Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild are the biggest surprises and gainers of the day, Amour received 5 nominations, and is the first foreign language film to be nominated for Best Picture since Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.  This is the only "genre" film to be nominated this year.  Beasts had a lot of support as well, and managed to pull off 4 nominations including Picture, Director, Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay.  After these two films shocking me I came down to Earth and realized Silver Linings Playbook received 7 nominations, and was the first film to have nominees in all four major categories since Warren Beatty's Red in 1981, 31 years ago.

Affleck missed out on a Director nomination for Argo, but the film itself scored 7 nominations, which is pretty impressive, although without Affleck the film looks weaker, and will not win Best Picture without a Director nomination.  Zero Dark Thirty was a heavy favorite with critics groups, but only managed to receive 5 nominations, and Bigelow was also snubbed, my guess is because of the torture issue.  Tom Hooper was nominated at the DGA just a few days ago, and his film received the magical 8 nominations (same as Dreamgirls), but no director nomination.  Django like Zero Dark had their director, Tarantino, left out in cold, and received 5 nominations.

In the acting categories the biggest snubs were John Hawkes for The Sessions, and Marion Cotillard who have consistently been nominated throughout the award show season.  While these folks missed out on the party the surprise inclusions were Joaquin Phoenix after his major gaffe, Jacki Weaver, she had no major precursor nomination, and Riva, and Wallis, although I predicted Wallis.  Emanuelle Riva is the oldest nominee ever, and Wallis is one of the youngest at 9.  One of the other fun things is that every nominee in Supporting Actor category is a past winner, this has never happened, and will mean someone adding a second trophy to their mantel.

Beyond Affleck and Bigelow's snubs this is a solid group of nominees, and I am proud they went for a small foreign language film and a movie about a young girl who lived in the bathtub.

Best Picture
Argo
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg-Lincoln
Michael Haneke-Amour
Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln
Denzel Washington-Flight
Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix-The Master

Best Actress
Naomi Watts-The Impossible
Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook
Emanuelle Riva-Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis-Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master
Robert DeNiro-Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin-Argo
Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field-Lincolm
Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Helen Hunt-The Sessions
Jacki Weaver-Silver Linings Playbook
Amy Adams-The Master

Best Adapted Screenplay
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi

Best Original Screenplay
Flight
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Amour
Moonrise kingdom

Foreign Langauge Film
Amour
No
A Royal Affair
War Witch
Kon-Tiki

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-it Ralph

Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Best Film Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Makeup.Hair Styling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

Best Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Best Original Song

"Before my Time" from Chasing Ice

"Pi's Lullaby"from Life of Pi

"Suddenly" from Les Miserable

"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from Ted

"Skyfall"from Skyfall

Best Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Best Visual Effects

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Marvel's: The Avengers

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Oscar Roundup 2012: Ineligibility Shades Writer's Guild Nominees, and eventual Oscar Screenplay Nominees

As the field narrows, the Globes announced, SAG announced, the critics lists out, and the Oscar ballots due, the Guild Awards may less and less of an impact of awards season.  The Writer's Guild Awards are one of the least successful precursors, mainly because they rules a good amount of scripts ineligible, and thus prevent a clear indicator of a stronger percentage of nominees.

Let's look at the past two years statistics:

2011

Original Screenplay (WGA on Left, Oscar on Right)

Win Win	The Artist
Bridesmaids	Bridesmaids
50/50	A Separation
Young Adult	Margin Call
Midnight in Paris	Midnight in Paris

Adapted Screenplay

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	The Ides of March
The Help	Tinker Tailor Solider Spy
Moneyball	Moneyball
The Descendants	The Descendants
Hugo	Hugo

In 2011 only 2 films matched in the Original Screenplay category, and three within the Adapted category, most of the discrepancies came because of ineligibility.  This ineligibility problem has happened year after year, and proves to make predicting these categories challenging.

2010

Original Screenplay

Black Swan	The King’s Speech
Please Give	Another Year
Inception	Inception
The Kids are all Right	The Kids are all Right
The Fighter	The Fighter

Adapted Screenplay

I Love You Phillip Morris	Winter’s Bone
The Town	Toy Story 3
The Social Network	The Social Network
127 Hours	127 Hours
True Grit	True Grit

2001

 Original Screenplay

Moulin Rouge	Memento
The Man who Wasn’t There	Amelie
Gosford Park	Gosford Park
Monster’s Ball	Monster’s Ball
The Royal Tenenbaums	The Royal Tenenbaums

Adapted Screenplay

Black Hawk Down	Shrek
Bridget Jone’s Diary	In the Bedroom
A Beautiful Mind	A Beautiful Mind
Ghost World	Ghost World
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring	Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring

Looking at 2010, and 2001 both years seem to follow that strong pattern that only 3 out of 5 nominees make it to the Academy Awards, so what films are the likely nominees this year?
WGA Original Screenplay Nominees

Zero Dark Thirty

Moonrise Kingdom

Looper

Flight

The Master

Strong Ineligible Contenders
Django Unchained
Amour
The Intouchables
The Impossible
Middle of Nowhere

Look for these to be the top five at the WGA, but come Oscar time Looper either Flight or The Master will be replaced with Amour, and Django Unchained. The Oscars typically have a foreign language 

nominee in this category, and they are not going to ignore this aspect of Django.

WGA Adapted Screenplay Nominees
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Strong Ineligible Contenders
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
The Deep Blue Sea
Les Miserables 
Rust and Bone

Look for Perks to be the unfortunate casualty here, being replaced by Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Fans of this film will want Benh Zeitlin to get some major attention, and unfortunately this is the most realistic place for him to be nominated.  This is going to be the first time in 4 years most of the nominees line-up.