Oscar Roundup 2012: Anna Karenina, Life of Pi, and Skyfall win at Art Director's Guil

At the Art Director's Guild (ADG) awards tonight three films took home the top honors.  The ADG break down their nominees and winners into three categories: Period Film, Fantasy Film, and Contemporary Film.  This years nominees in each category were as follows:

Period Film
Anna Karenina
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln 

Fantasy Film
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises 
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Prometheus

Contemporary Film
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Flight
The Impossible 
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

The winners in each category were, Anna Karenina, Life of Pi, and Skyfall.  The first two winners have a shot at taking Oscar gold, but since the Academy rarely recognizes contemporary art direction Skyfall did not even make the cut as one of the nominees.

The Oscar nominees would fit within the Best Production Design Category, and the nominees are:

Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln 

Come Oscar time this is is actually going to be a hard category to predict, Anna Karenina and Life of Pi both have their own merits, but this race is between these two films.  Look for Pi to have Hugo like wins, sweeping most of the technical races.

Top Ten Films of 2012

Within this list I used my own words from past reviews, and ranked my top ten films of 2012.

1-Zero Dark Thirty

"This is one of the best films of the year, the subject matter is handled beautifully, by the geniuses Bigelow, and Boal.  Along with Chastain this team is complete, and they work together effortlessly. Zero Dark Thirty is a thrilling ride into the search for a monster, and never lets you leave the edge of your seat."

Of all the films this year Zero Dark Thirty proves to be allegorical to the evolving theme of the film. In an changing society the hunt for a terrorist provides relief yet anguish.  The way Bin Laden was found harkens to the simplicity, with a take down by Navy S.E.A.L.S.  Yet the brutal tactics of torture and cultural differences add to changing global conversation. In a closing thought of where do you want to go next, the question is left to relieve, but haunt. This is the smartest, film of the year, and the team of Bigelow and Boal did it again!

2-Beasts of the Southern Wild

“For Benh Zeitlin's first major feature film this is one of the most masterfully directed films.  Zeitlin's work with the camera, and his actor's, none have which had done any major motion picture, proves that the energy and heart behind a director can make a film.  Zeitlin not only directed the film, but her helped write the screenplay, and helped compose one of the best scores of the year.  As you watch Beasts you would imagine that Zeitlin is an experienced filmmaker, who has mastered the craft of film making and has been making movies for years.  It's not the years that count, but the passion behind the auteur, and Zeitlin's work on this film is nothing short of amazing.”

3-Amour

“Haneke's direction and script brilliantly unfold a tale filled with moments of agony, grief, but ultimately filled with love.  As you watch Georges struggle, or Ann slip further into illness their connection may hit rough patches. Haneke does not spell out his direction with 100 percent certainty; he often works in the grey leaving ambiguity for the viewer to decide the meaning of a touch, a look, or silent moment.  This helps further strengthen the depth of the story, and makes the performances in his film even stronger.”

4-The Master

“One of the brilliant aspects of this film is the way Paul Thomas Anderson focuses on Joaquin Phoenix's Quell and the disillusionment he faces in a post World War II society.  Most people always painted the 50s as this golden era of family values, the husbands/men came home from the war they got their plot of land in Levitttown, settled with their "girl" and led a happy life.  Anderson uses the concept of this lost soul and the newly developed "religion" which takes advantage of those people had no place when they came back from the War.”

5-Argo

“The star of this film (in all ways possible) is leading man/director Ben Affleck.  Affleck moves away from Boston and into the terrain of Hollywood and Iran.  One of my favorite lines in the script comes from the fake make-up artists on the film John Chambers (John Goodman) in which he states "So you want to come to Hollywood and and act like a big shot without actually doing anything?..You will fit right in."  This along with the line about anyone being able to direct are laugh out loud moments, but Affleck proves everyone may be able to point the camera, and shoot, but not everyone can create such great work.  This is one of the best films of the year, and Affleck's direction helps set the stage for everything to be made possible.”

6-Moonrise Kingdom

“We Anderson does an incredible job making the children the center focus of the story while creating interesting and complex supporting characters out of the major stars.  Murray and McDormand are great are Suzy's parents, and they add their brilliant comic flare.  Norton rarely gets to flex his comedic chops, which is a shame because he is a talented actor who can do it all, and I love watching him take his role as Troop Leader 55 so seriously.  I was struck most by Bruce Willis; he hit this role out of the park, and has done some of the best acting I have ever seen him do, his raw emotion mixed with great wit is terrific in this film.  Then there were the great small roles for the flawless Tilda Swinton, the straight man Harvey Keitel, and the incredible Jason Schwartzman who always shines in his films.

7-Holy Motors

“Director Leo Carax a former film critic, takes you on a journey fitting together these different puzzle pieces to create something much larger about film.  Carax worked on a larger budget American film, but the film never came to life. With this project never coming to life Carax, started working on this low budget film, and was finally brought to the screen 13 years after his last picture.  Motors feels  like director David Lynch's Mullholland Dr. both providing a sharp critique on movies today, and the evolution of the modern cinema.  The "actor" goes from gig to gig without the emotional understanding of the part or faking the way they feel about the character.  One of the funniest moments was when Lavant played the dying millionaire whose step niece was grieving for him.  After he said his goodbye in what would be defined as on screen, Monsiuer Oscar gets up asks the girl her name and walks out of the room.”

8-Skyfall

“One of the brilliant aspects of this film is the sense of a world changing, but that this change is causing more chaos than good.  The post 9/11 world where the terrorist runs rampant, and is beyond the simple bald man stroking a cat, the villain has to be smoked out the old fashioned way.  How is the James Bond character relevant, or is he?  This franchise poses the question that was established in Casino Royale.  Bond has to become a new man, even though he may not be ready or even up to the challenges of the the people he will have to face.  Craig tackles this role better than ever in this film, not only showing that he can kick ass, but continuing to show the evolution the character started in this "reboot."

9-Lincoln

“As Daniel Day Lewis steps on stage, there is chill that passed down my spine, something he often invokes with his acting, or presence.  Day Lewis is a brilliant as Lincoln; he brings to life the man, his speeches, and shows you just how comfortable he was connecting with the masses.  Lincoln was one of the few Presidents we have had who came from nothing, Day Lewis connects with this aspect of Lincoln, and proves that within him there is a way for you to connect with him in this role on every level in believe in the greatness of this man.”

10-Looper

“Johnson's script and direction are key players in bringing this world to life.  Bob Ducsay's editing brilliantly blends the complicated elements of the story.  There are moments when you feel that the complicated nature of the story could hold the film back, but Docsay's editing helps strengthen the power of the story, with quick cuts that blend the stories of young and old Joe.”

Oscar Roundup 2012: BAFTA, Blimey I Think They've Got it!?

Over the the many years of the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTA) there are two apparent facts, they line up for the most part with Oscar, but they also take care of their own.  What does that mean?  British films, directors, actors etc tend to make it in over the surefire Oscar nominee.  Looking down blow you will see how Oscar and BAFTA line-up in regards to Best Picture, which actors recieved nominations at BAFTA (not at the Oscars), and how this will impact this year's nominees at BAFTA, and the Academy Awards.

In the Best Film/Picture world, over the last 8 years BAFTA has done well.  2004 was  BAFTA's weakest year in recent memory they only matched 2/5, and was the only year without the the Best Picture winner nominated in a long time, which is truly an anomaly.  Of the BAFTA nominees that missed at Oscar time the three were some how affiliated with UK production, showing one of the trends with the way BAFTA and Oscar may not always align, and proving a little bias from the country of origin.  The same can be said with the acting categories.

 BAFTA                                                            Oscar 

The Aviator*	The Aviator
Finding Neverland	Finding Nverland
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind	Million Dollar Baby*
The Motorcycle Diaries	Ray
Vera Drake	Sideways

In 2005 BAFTA picked British film The Constant Gardener over the very American Steven Spielberg's Munich. In 2006 BAFTA went 4/5, picking the British film The Last King of Scotland, over Clint Eastwood's Letter's from Iwo Jima, this was also a sign that Dreamgirls was weaker than predicted. In 2007 (as seen below) BAFTA went 3/5, picking a German film, which had no shot at a Best Picture nomination, and American Gnagster, which was directed by the famed British director Ridley Scott.

 BAFTA                                                            Oscar 

Atonement*	Atonement
No Country for Old Men	No Country for Old Men*
There will be Blood	There will be Blood
American Gangster	Juno
The Lives of Others	Michael Clayton

In 2008, 2009, and 2010, with their five nominees predicted all of the Best Picture nominees.  Unlike the Academy their did not switch to the 10 picture system or the 5-10 picture system.  In 2011 BAFTA only predicted 3 Best Picture nominees, and like within years prior this was based on their tendency to award British or Foreign Language films. Last year's 2011 was the weakest year where the Academy had more than 5 nominees.  In the diagram below it shows that BAFTA only had 3 of the Academy's 9 nominees.  Tinker Tailor was a UK film, and well liked by their Academy, while Drive's nomination was just something proving they sometimes have better taste than us Yanks

BAFTA                                                                     Oscar 

The Help	The Help
The Descendants	The Descendants
The Artist*	The Artist*
Drive	Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy	The Tree of Life
	Midnight in Paris
	Moneyball
	War Horse
	Hugo

In the acting categories their are often many famous Brits who make the cut at BAFTA, but are left in the lurch come Oscar time.  Here is a list by category:

Best Actor in a Leading Role (6)

Ralph Fiennes-The Constant Gardener (2005)

Daniel Craig-Casino Royale (2006)

Richard Griffiths-The History Boys (2006)

Dev Patel-Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

Andy Serkis-Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll (2009)

Michael Fassbender-Shame (2011

Best Actress in a Leading Role (7)

Kate Winslet-Finding Neverland (2004)

Judi Dench-Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005)

Keira Knightly-Atonement (2007)

Kristin Scott Thomas-I've Loved You So Long (2008)

Kate Winslet-Revolutionary Road (2008)

Saoirse Ronan-The Lovely Bones (2009)

Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role (11)

Phil Davis-Vera Drake (2004)

James McAvoy-The Last King of Scotland (2006)

Leslie Phillips-Venus (2006)

Michael Sheen-The Queen (2006)

Brendan Gleeson-In Bruges (2008)

Christian McKay-Me and Orson Welles (2009)

Alfred Molina-An Education (2009)

Andrew Garfield-The Social Network (2010)

Peter Postlewaite-The Town (2010)

Jim Boradbent-The Iron Lady (2011)

Kenneth Brannaugh-My Week with Marilyn (2011)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role (16) 

Heather Craney-Vera Drake (2004)

Julie Christie-Finding Neverland (2004)

Brenda Blethyn-Pride and Prejudice (2005)

Toni Collette-Little Miss Sunshine (2006)-Aussie

Emily Blunt-The Devil Wears Prada (2006)

Frances de la Tour-The History Boys (2006)

Samantha Morton-Control (2007)

Kelly McDonald-No Country for Old Men (2007)

Frieda Pinto-Slumndog Millionaire (2008)

Tilda Swinton-Burn After Reading (2008)

Ann-Marie Duff-Nowhere Boy (2009)

Kristin Scott Thomas-Nowhere Boy (2009)

Miranda Richardson-Made in Dagenham (2010)

Lesley Manville-Another Year (2010)

Carey Mulligan-Drive (2011)

Judi Dench-My Week with Marilyn (2011)

Of the the BAFTA nominees over the last 8 years 40 of them have been Brits who have not gone on to be nominated at the Academy Awards.  This only counts the Brits who were not nominated, but about 1/4 of the BAFTA nominees over the last 8 years were not nominated at the Oscars giving nominees a 3/4 chance, which are pretty could odds.

So who gets nominated and how will this impact the Academy Awards?  Given the non-consistent statistics and the BAFTAs honoring their own states men and women so regularly look for a different list of nominees, which may or may not look like my predictions below.  I tried to use the the above stats to help guide my predictions, but this is a massive shot in the dark! Listed below are my predictions:

Best Film 

Argo 

Lincoln 

 Les Miserables

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

alt: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Daniel Craig-Skyfall

Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln

Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables

Anthony Hopkins-Hitchcock

Joaquin Phoenix-The Master

Alt: Ewen McGregor-The Impossible

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Marion Cotillard-Rust and Bone

Judi Dench-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Helen Mirren-Hitchcock

Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty

Naomi Watts-The Impossible

Alt: Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actor in a Supporting Role 

Alan Arkin-Argo

Javier Bardem-Skyfall

Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master

Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln

Eddie Redmayne-Les Miserables

Alt: Tom Wilkinson-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Judi Dench-Skyfall

Anne Hathway-Les Miserables 

Sally Field-Lincoln

Nicole Kidman-The Paperboy

Maggie Smith-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Alt: Samantha Barks-Les Miserables

Best Director 

Ben Affleck-Argo

Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty

Sam Mendes-Skyfall

Tom Hooper-Les Miserables

Steven Spielberg-Lincoln

Alt: John Madden-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

The PGA name their 10 Nominees with a Moderate Surprise, Skyfall

The List is out, and the Producer's Guild has spoken!  Overall the list is pretty predictable, the most "surprising" is Skyfall.  With my own predictions I thought this branch would surprise and go for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, they went for altenate 11th pick Skyfall.  I went 9 for 10 on this award.  Skyfall should have been a more obvious choice from this branch, namely because of the box office power and quality.  Skyfall just passed the billion dollar mark globally, and is still going.  

Of the the films nominated Skyfall is the most vulnerable, this branch rarely matches perfectly so look for one of these to fall of the list come Oscar time.  Skyfall is unfortunatley the obvious choice for that fate (based on statistics).  The film is a sure fire threat in other areas (don't underestimate Javier Bardem, and technical nominations/wins).

The Award for Outstanding Producer of a Theatrical Motion Picture

“Argo” (Warner Bros.)Producers: Ben Affleck, George Clooney, Grant Heslov

“Beasts of the Southern Wild” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)Producers: Michael Gottwald, Dan Janvey, Josh Penn

“Django Unchained” (The Weinstein Company)Producers: Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone, Stacey Sher

“Les Misérables” (Universal Pictures)Producers: Tim Bevan & Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh

Life of Pi” (Fox 2000 Pictures)Producers: Ang Lee, Gil Netter, David Womark

“Lincoln” (Touchstone Pictures)Producers:  Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg

“Moonrise Kingdom” (Focus Features)Producers: Wes Anderson & Scott Rudin, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales

“Silver Linings Playbook” (The Weinstein Company)Producers: Bruce Cohen, Donna Gigliotti, Jonathan Gordon

“Skyfall” (Columbia Pictures)Producers: Barbara Broccoli, Michael G. Wilson

“Zero Dark Thirty” (Columbia Pictures)Producers: Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Megan Ellison

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:

“Brave” (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Producer: Katherine Sarafian

“Frankenweenie” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Producers: Allison Abbate, Tim Burton

“ParaNorman” (Focus Features)
Producers: Travis Knight, Arianne Sutner

“Rise of the Guardians” (Paramount Pictures)
Producers: Nancy Bernstein, Christina Steinberg

“Wreck-It Ralph” (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
Producer: Clark Spencer

The Television Nominees

The David L. Wolper Award for Outstanding Producer of Long-Form Television:

“American Horror Story” (FX)
Producers: Brad Buecker, Dante Di Loreto, Brad Falchuk, Ryan Murphy, Chip Vucelich, Alexis Martin Woodall

“The Dust Bowl” (PBS)
Producers: Producer Eligibility Pending

“Game Change” (HBO)
Producers: Gary Goetzman, Tom Hanks, Jay Roach, Amy Sayres, Steven Shareshian, Danny Strong

“Hatfields & McCoys” (History)
Producers: Barry Berg, Kevin Costner, Darrell Fetty, Leslie Greif, Herb Nanas

“Sherlock” (PBS)
Producers: Mark Gatiss, Steven Moffat, Beryl Vertue, Sue Vertue

In November 2012, the Producers Guild of America announced the Documentary Theatrical Motion Picture, Television Series and Non-Fiction Television Nominations; the following list includes complete producer credits.

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures:

“A People Uncounted” (Urbinder Films)
Producers: Marc Swenker, Aaron Yeger

“The Gatekeepers” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Producers: Estelle Fialon, Philippa Kowarsky, Dror Moreh

“The Island President” (Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Producers: Richard Berg, Bonni Cohen

“The Other Dream Team” (The Film Arcade)
Producers: Marius Markevicius, Jon Weinbach

“Searching For Sugar Man” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Producers: Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn

The Norman Felton Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television, Drama:

“Breaking Bad” (AMC)
Producers: Melissa Bernstein, Sam Catlin, Bryan Cranston, Vince Gilligan, Peter Gould, Mark Johnson, Stewart Lyons, Michelle MacLaren, George Mastras, Diane Mercer, Thomas Schnauz, Moira Walley-Beckett

“Downton Abbey” (PBS)
Producers: Julian Fellowes, Gareth Neame, Liz Trubridge

“Game of Thrones” (HBO)
Producers: David Benioff, Bernadette Caulfield, Frank Doelger, Carolyn Strauss, D.B. Weiss

“Homeland” (Showtime)
Producers: Henry Bromell, Alexander Cary, Michael Cuesta, Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon, Chip Johannessen, Michael Klick, Meredith Stiehm

“Mad Men” (AMC)
Producers: Jon Hamm, Scott Hornbacher, Andre Jacquemetton, Maria Jacquemetton, Victor Levin, Blake McCormick, Matthew Weiner

The Danny Thomas Award for Outstanding Producer of Episodic Television, Comedy:

“30 Rock” (NBC)
Producers: Irene Burns, Kay Cannon, Robert Carlock, Vali Chandrasekaran, Luke Del Tredici, Tina Fey, Matt Hubbard, Marci Klein, Jerry Kupfer, Lorne Michaels, David Miner, Dylan Morgan, Jeff Richmond, John Riggi, Josh Siegal, Ron Weiner

“The Big Bang Theory” (CBS)
Producers: Chuck Lorre, Steve Molaro, Faye Oshima Belyeu, Bill Prady

“Curb Your Enthusiasm” (HBO)
Producers: Alec Berg, Larry Charles, Larry David, Jeff Garlin, Tim Gibbons, David Mandel, Erin O’Malley, Jeff Schaffer, Laura Streicher

“Louie” (FX)
Producers: Dave Becky, M. Blair Breard, Louis C.K.

“Modern Family” (ABC)
Producers: Cindy Chupack, Paul Corrigan, Abraham Higginbotham, Ben Karlin, Steven Levitan, Christopher Lloyd, Jeff Morton, Dan O’Shannon, Jeffrey Richman, Chris Smirnoff, Brad Walsh, Bill 

Wrubel, Danny ZukerThe Award for Outstanding Producer of Non-Fiction Television:

“American Masters” (PBS)
Producers: Prudence Glass, Susan Lacy, Julie Sacks

“Anthony Bourdain: No Reservations” (Travel Channel)
Producers: Anthony Bourdain, Christopher Collins, Lydia Tenaglia, Sandy Zweig

“Deadliest Catch” (Discovery Channel)
Producers: Thom Beers, Jeff Conroy, Sean Dash, John Gray, Sheila McCormack, Bill Pruitt, Decker Watson

“Inside the Actors Studio” (Bravo)
Producers: James Lipton, Shawn Tesser, Jeff Wurtz

“Shark Tank” (ABC)
Producers: Rhett Bachner, Becky Blitz, Mark Burnett, Bill Gaudsmith, Yun Lingner, Brien Meagher, Clay Newbill, Jim Roush, Laura Skowlund, Paul Sutera, Patrick Wood

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Live Entertainment & Talk Television:

“The Colbert Report” (Comedy Central)
Producers: Meredith Bennett, Stephen Colbert, Richard Dahm, Paul Dinello, Barry Julien, Matt Lappin, Emily Lazar, Tanya Michnevich Bracco, Tom Purcell, Jon Stewart

“Jimmy Kimmel Live” (ABC)
Producers: David Craig, Ken Crosby, Doug DeLuca, Erin Irwin, Jimmy Kimmel, Jill Leiderman, Jason Schrift, Jennifer Sharron

“Late Night with Jimmy Fallon” (NBC)
Producers: Hillary Hunn, Lorne Michaels, Gavin Purcell, Michael Shoemaker

“Real Time with Bill Maher” (HBO)
Producers: Scott Carter, Sheila Griffiths, Marc Gurvitz, Dean Johnsen, Bill Maher, Billy Martin

“Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Producers: Ken Aymong, Steve Higgins, Erik Kenward, Lorne Michaels, John Mulaney

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Competition Television:

“The Amazing Race” (CBS)
Producers: Jerry Bruckheimer, Elise Doganieri, Jonathan Littman, Bertram van Munster, Mark Vertullo

“Dancing with the Stars” (ABC)
Producers: Ashley Edens Shaffer, Conrad Green, Joe Sungkur

“Project Runway” (Lifetime)
Producers: Jane Cha Cutler, Desiree Gruber, Tim Gunn, Heidi Klum, Jonathan Murray, Sara Rea, Colleen Sands

“Top Chef” (Bravo)
Producers: Daniel Cutforth, Casey Kriley, Jane Lipsitz, Dan Murphy, Nan Strait

“The Voice” (NBC)
Producers: Stijn Bakkers, Mark Burnett, John De Mol, Chad Hines, Lee Metzger, Audrey Morrissey, Jim Roush, Nicolle Yaron, Mike Yurchuk, Amanda Zucker

Oscar Roundup 2012: Where Have all the Genre Films Gone

The year is coming to an end, the critics have named their top tens, the Globe and SAG nominations have been announced, soon the other Guilds will announce their nominees, and the Oscar nominees will be right around the corner.  If we look at all the precursors, and experts predictions, which align for the most part. These are the top ten pictures (if there are ten) which most likely be nominated for Best Picture (in alpha order):

Argo 
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
The Master 
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln 
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

These are the most predicted top ten, but there are two spoilers still in contention, but genre fans should not get excited because those two spoilers are The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (nominated at SAG and the Golden Globes), and Flight, which could get attention from numerous branches and had a great box office take.

So I have to ask the Academy does this list of ten "serve the purpose" they intended?  After the 2008 Oscar debacle nominating The Reader over The Dark Knight Rises (or any other better film that year), the Academy knew they had reached their precipice. The Academy wanted to become more "audience friendly" and changed their rules to nominate 10 films, the following year.  Although this rule has been revised and their could be any combination between 5 and 10 now.

In 2009 the year after the rule change took effect the addition of five extra nominees added more genre films: Avatar (Sci-Fi/Action), District 9 (Sci-fi/Action), Up (Animated).  Avatar would have been a nominee no matter what, in fact it was probably the second place film, losing to The Hurt Locker.  The other two films District 9, and Up would never have made the top five, and these two films provided a greater film landscape, proving their new system was starting to work.  You could argue Inglorious Basterds may fit within a "genre" but to me this film fits more a classic drama style with intense action (the same way this year's Django Unchained does).

In 2010 two films would fit within the genre world, Inception (Sci-fI/Action), and Toy Story 3 (Animated).  With Nolan missing out on Best Director (again), I am going to argue that without 10 nominees both of these films would have missed out on the top five.  Now this is merely a hypothesis, and there is no proof, but I think if there were only five nominees it would have been Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network, and True Grit.  Another way the ten nominees helped change the system.

In 2011 (after the rule change) there only nine nominees, and no genre nominee, there was no animated film the merited breaking into this group.  There were two "genre" films that could have broken into the Best Picture race, but were left off.  Drive is an action film, but was never taken seriously by the Academy and missed out on a nomination.  A Separation was the eventual winner in the Best Foreign Language Film category film from Iran, but did not make the top 9.  No foreign language film has ever made it into the top 10 since the rule change.

This year has the most potential for action or sci-fi films ever, with The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, Looper, and Skyfall.  These four films could shake up the system, and all could be considered for this Best Picture race, but are any of them serious contenders?

Let's look at the super hero flick first. The Avengers will make it into the Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects category, but will go no further.  The Dark Knight Rises may get a Cinematography, Editing, or Original Score nomination, in the major technical categories, and like The Avengers will most likely score nominations in both Sound categories and the Visual Effects category.  Neither of these super hero tales will be taken seriously enough to make this list.

Looper a true science fiction action adventure film is being ignored left and right by many groups.  The Guild nominees will help determine if this is a viable contender.  Looper could sneak into the Best Original Screenplay category, and become Rian Johnson's first nomination, but may be passed over for more traditional fair, like Django Unchained, Moonrise Kingdom, Flight, The Master, and Zero Dark Thirty.  Looper could also make the Sound and Visual Effects categories, but has a lot of competition.

The biggest action film with the biggest chances at Oscar is the often forgotten James Bond, and Skyfall.  Of these four films Skyfall makes the most "sense" and deserves to make it into the Best Picture race, but at the moment is a major long shot.  Skyfall could score one major nomination with Javier Bardem in Best Supporting Actor, and will most likely get a nomination for Cinematography, Editing, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.   No James Bond film has received an Oscar nomination, and this will be the first one.  Oscar has the chance to reward this film, and make a statement, but voters will unfortunately not put this into the Best Picture category.

No animated film has a shot like last year, but this year is filled with strong foreign language films, but only one has a shot, Amour.  With no foreign language film shaking up the box office like Crouching Tiger,  Amour has an uphill battle.  Amour has a shot in the Best Actress category, the Best Original Screenplay category, and of course will be nominated for Best Foreign Language film, but without any major support this film like most others will be contained within the foreign language category.

Have the more traditional voters monopolized the newer system, and brought even more traditional films into the fold?  The answer is still up in the air because the nominations have not been announced, but based on statistics none of the genre films are going to make the top ten.  This has been one of the best years in film in a long time, and I would hate for the Academy to play it too safe yet again, but it looks as though history will repeat, and comedy, action, sci-fi, animated, and foreign films will be left in the lurch.