Academy Award Week (2013) Best Original Screenplay

Typically the Original Screenplay category has a pretty clear, or there has been a lack of competitive scripts which could compete within this category.  This category tends to honor films based on the following categories

The Unique Wins

What are the unique wins?  In my mind these are somewhat anomalies, and while they may make sense  during the year or in hind sight, there is something truly unique about their wins.

2002-Talk to Her (Hable Con Ella)-Foreign films rarely get a win in major categories outside of Best Foreign Language Film in the "major" categories.  Pedro Almodovar had another nomination in Best Director, but the film was not nominated in the Foreign Language film category.  On the other hand you had 10 time nominee Gangs of New York, the popular Nia Vardalos for My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and a multiple nominee Far from Heaven.

2004-Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind-This could be seen as a consolation prize, but this was a two time nominee with only a nomination for this and Kate Winslet.  Sunshine was up against more typical films like The Aviator, Hotel Rwanda, The Incredibles, and even Vera Drake.  Sunshine's win was somewhat expected in the sense that the film was very respected, but the film does not fit the norm.

2008-Milk-This was not a consolation prize, Penn won Actor (although people may not have known this was going to happen), but rarely does a bio-pic on this level win within this category.

Best Picture Sweep 

The Best Picture and Original Screenplay have only lined up 15 times in Oscars history, which does not bode well for the winners in this category, unless you are a massive Oscar favorite in the Best Picture category.

2005-Crash-At the time of the ceremony I saw this win as a consolation prize, but this ended up going along with the sweep.  It was easy to predict this win, but this one of those rare times when it predicted Best Picture.

2009-The Hurt Locker-The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar in Best Picture, on awards night The Hurt Locker won more than was expected, and this was a surprise as well.  My thought and many other people predicted Inglorious Basterds would win this as a consolation prize.

2010-The King's Speech-Like Hurt Locker this was one of those wins that was fierce battle, and it's competition was Inception.  Speech was not qualified for the WGA, but won at the BFCA, and BAFTA.  With few wins Speech needed this the way Argo needs adapted screenplay to help amass more wins.

The Consolation Prize (I Have to Win Somewhere)

Statistically this is where most of the winners fit.  All of the films (except Almost Famous) were nominated for Best Picture, and a few other awards, but this was the only win, which made sense.

2000-Almost Famous was snubbed in the Best Picture category the Miramax machine's Chocolat.  Almost Famous only received four nominations, but was a respected film from from Jerry Maguire nominee Cameron Crowe; he won to give the film some attention.

2001-Gosford Park-Park had lots of stiff competition from Memento, and The Royal Tenenbaums, but Park was the most "Oscar bait" film.  Park made the most sense as a winner, and it was the only Best Picture nominee.

2003-Lost in Translation, 2006-Little Miss Sunshine, 2007-Juno-All three of these films fit within the quirky comedy category.  Translation had the Copola name, and was solid.  Sunshine and Juno had heart mixed with quirk, which could never be taken seriously anywhere else.  While Arkin won for Sunshine that was not expected at all.

2011-Midnight in Paris-Midnight in Paris was another great Woody film, which never had a shot at Best Picture, but was one of the most respected films of the year.

So who wins this year....And the Nominees Are....

Amour-Michael Haneke

Django Unchained-Quentin Tarantino

Flight-John Gatins

Moonrise Kingdom-Wes Anderson, and Roman Coppola

Zero Dark Thirty-Mark Boal

Moonrise Kingdom and Flight, only have one, and two nominations respectively, they are out.  This is one of the tougher races to predict.  Django has won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and BFCA, which gives it the best odds.  Django has a lot of respect, but why the Academy would honor one of the weakest screenplays is beyond me.  Zero Dark Thirty won the WGA, but Django was ineligible.  The difference between 2009 and this year is that Django has the edge because in 2009 Hurt Locker won all the awards Django won.  Yet can Amour pull off that unique foreign language film win, it has five other nominations. At the moment my winner prediction is Django, but this may change.

Will Win: Django Unchained

Spoilers: Amour then Zero Dark Thirty

Oscar Roundup 2012: Ineligibility Shades Writer's Guild Nominees, and eventual Oscar Screenplay Nominees

As the field narrows, the Globes announced, SAG announced, the critics lists out, and the Oscar ballots due, the Guild Awards may less and less of an impact of awards season.  The Writer's Guild Awards are one of the least successful precursors, mainly because they rules a good amount of scripts ineligible, and thus prevent a clear indicator of a stronger percentage of nominees.

Let's look at the past two years statistics:

2011

Original Screenplay (WGA on Left, Oscar on Right)

Win Win	The Artist
Bridesmaids	Bridesmaids
50/50	A Separation
Young Adult	Margin Call
Midnight in Paris	Midnight in Paris

Adapted Screenplay

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	The Ides of March
The Help	Tinker Tailor Solider Spy
Moneyball	Moneyball
The Descendants	The Descendants
Hugo	Hugo

In 2011 only 2 films matched in the Original Screenplay category, and three within the Adapted category, most of the discrepancies came because of ineligibility.  This ineligibility problem has happened year after year, and proves to make predicting these categories challenging.

2010

Original Screenplay

Black Swan	The King’s Speech
Please Give	Another Year
Inception	Inception
The Kids are all Right	The Kids are all Right
The Fighter	The Fighter

Adapted Screenplay

I Love You Phillip Morris	Winter’s Bone
The Town	Toy Story 3
The Social Network	The Social Network
127 Hours	127 Hours
True Grit	True Grit

2001

 Original Screenplay

Moulin Rouge	Memento
The Man who Wasn’t There	Amelie
Gosford Park	Gosford Park
Monster’s Ball	Monster’s Ball
The Royal Tenenbaums	The Royal Tenenbaums

Adapted Screenplay

Black Hawk Down	Shrek
Bridget Jone’s Diary	In the Bedroom
A Beautiful Mind	A Beautiful Mind
Ghost World	Ghost World
Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring	Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring

Looking at 2010, and 2001 both years seem to follow that strong pattern that only 3 out of 5 nominees make it to the Academy Awards, so what films are the likely nominees this year?
WGA Original Screenplay Nominees

Zero Dark Thirty

Moonrise Kingdom

Looper

Flight

The Master

Strong Ineligible Contenders
Django Unchained
Amour
The Intouchables
The Impossible
Middle of Nowhere

Look for these to be the top five at the WGA, but come Oscar time Looper either Flight or The Master will be replaced with Amour, and Django Unchained. The Oscars typically have a foreign language 

nominee in this category, and they are not going to ignore this aspect of Django.

WGA Adapted Screenplay Nominees
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Strong Ineligible Contenders
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
The Deep Blue Sea
Les Miserables 
Rust and Bone

Look for Perks to be the unfortunate casualty here, being replaced by Beasts of the Southern Wild.  Fans of this film will want Benh Zeitlin to get some major attention, and unfortunately this is the most realistic place for him to be nominated.  This is going to be the first time in 4 years most of the nominees line-up.

Flight is a Bumpy Ride, Piloted by Solid Direction from Zemeckis and a Brilliant Performance from Denzel

Flight (3 1/2 out of 5 Stars)

Directed by Robert Zemeckis (Back to the Future, Forrest Gump, Cast Away)

Written by John Gatins (Summer Catch, Coach Carter, Real Steel)

Starring: Denzel Washington, Don Cheedle, and John Goodman

Daylight savings almost prevented me from going to the movies tonight.  A fun tip for people checking movie times, if you are going to a Regal (I am assuming AMC does the same thing) Fandango is the only accurate website/app to use for looking at move times.  My intention was to see Cloud Atlas today, but because of how long the film is I ended up seeing Flight instead.  Flight ended up being a  bumpy ride, piloted by solid direction from Robert Zemeckis and a brilliant performance from Denzel Washington.

Flight, centers Captain Whip Whitaker (Washington) a pilot who ends up helping land a plane as it appears the plane is going to crash and kill everyone.  Instead of the plane crashing Whip miraculously glides the plane in saving the majority of the passengers on board.  The main problem in the after effects is the fact that Whip was drunk and high while flying the plane.

The film centers around Whip's addiction and the role it has played throughout his entire life.  As the story progresses there is no clear point that explains what happened to him to cause his drinking, but the root of the evil in his life is not the problem the main point is that he has a problem.  Whip has two face two large problems in the film the fact that he has an addiction and the fact that he was drunk and high while flying the plane.  With some casualties on the flight Whip faces prison time.

In his post crash world Whip meets a woman named Nicole (Kelly Reilly) in the hospital.  Nicole is an addict as well, and we see her at the beginning of her journey to help curb her problem.  While I like the concept of the parallel story, and the way these two interact, Nicole's journey and her interaction with Whip is often left with little substance.  Even Nicole's introduction feels awkward and clunky. This lack of depth, and poor character narrative speaks to one of the problems with the film, the script.

This is John Gatin's first time handling material that is this deep, his past films may have some overcoming adversity themes.  Gatins himself has talked openly about his own struggles with alcoholism, and I think he has used his own experiences to color the tale.  Using real life experiences can be powerful to help personalize a script, but it can also bog things down with cliches.  I think the running thematic connection for Gatins is the power of AA, and while this can work it does not always add the to story.

   Gatin's script is by no means bad, but there is a need for him to work on tightening things up, and avoiding the ABC after school special feel. There are also constant mentions of spirituality/faith and "acts of God," but I am not sure that this all connected in the to Whip's journey.  The script does a good job talking about ethics more than this "Act of God" concept, and should have focused solely on doing the right thing without playing the religion card.  As Washington is faced with one tough decision there is this brilliant direction which focuses on him and his characters pain, which he has been fighting throughout the whole film.

That scene with Denzel at the end of the film, along with the brilliant flight sequence in the beginning where the plane is going down is the work of director Robert Zemeckis.  Zemeckis has left the world of live action films for twelve years working on stop motion films (like the scary Polar Express), I am grateful to have him back in the live action world.  Flight, is not a typical Zemeckis like film; he challenges himself to step outside of the box, and work with the solid aspects of the script, and the brilliant acting from Denzel Washington to let the film speak for itself.

Washington character Whip is like Hanks in Cast Away; he is piloting his journey (basically solo) as he  battles his demons, throughout his experiences after this accident.  There were times when I hated this character, and like Whip's attorney Hugh Lang (Cheedle) said he was basically an arrogant asshole.  There is something different about this journey, something typical, but different (another solid part of the script) Whip is an anti-hero, someone you should be rooting  for, but you can't because you know his bender put people's lives at risk.  Washington's performance is one of his best in years, and proves he has the chops when given the right role.

Washington's performance saves the film, and even though there is solid word from the the other actors like Cheedles stodgy lawyer, and Goodman's scene stealing drug/alcohol buddy.  You never lose site of Denzel and the way he owns this role, and how magnetic he is playing this character.  The film has bumpy, and sometimes preachy moments, but they never overshadow Washington.

November Movies to See and Skip

This past month was filled with spooky stories (mostly sequels or re-makes), and indie darlings.  Most of the films released throughout the month of October were a build up Halloween, even the animated features.

There was Paranormal Activity 4, Silent Hill 2, and Sinister, these were the films that tried to get you to jump.  Then there two animated feature Hotel Transylvania, and Frankenweenie.  Frankenweenie received the best reviews, but did lousy at the box office, and Hotel Transylvania received middling reviews but was one of the biggest successes at the box office.  While Paranormal Activity had a solid opening, it was way down from the previous installments, and failed to hold a steady box office proving the franchise is weakening.  Most folks would rather stay in and watch their favorite old Halloween films than the ones coming out at the movies.

People wanted drama in the month of October.  The main star, of October, was the Ben Affleck directed Argo, which got amazing reviews (it was a great film), and has already made 60 million making it the Best Picture front runner at the moment.  Taken 2 has performed solidly at the box office, but was trashed by critics, I am intrigued to see if they turn this into a trilogy.

Then there the the bombs on all accounts, Here Comes the Boom, Alex Cross, and Chasing Mavericks.  These films did incredibly poorly, and received terrible reviews.  Like within our government its time for Hollywood to assess the structure of their film releases and the movies they are making.  Here's to hoping November is a bit more exciting.

November 2nd

Flight

Wreck-It Ralph

Look for Flight and Wreck-It Ralph to improve last week's box office numbers by a lot.  Wreck-IT Ralph will do well because it will appeal to kids of all ages, and looks just plain fun.  The film is also getting great reviews.  Denzel fans will show up for this one; he has a great box office track record, combine that with Robert Zemeckis (Forrest Gump) directing and you have a hit.  Both are must see movies of the month.

November 9th

Skyfall (November 8th)

Lincoln

Another weekend filled with must see movies.  Skyfall looks fantastic, and its already killing it over seas at the box office.  Combine that with it being the 50th anniversary of the films, and you have a surefire hit on your hands.  I have seen Lincoln already, and boy is it great.  No film maker has tackled Lincoln, and Spielberg was the man for the job!

November 16th 

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 (15th)

Anna Karenina 

Thank God the Twilight Saga is ending, that's all I have to say about that!  Anna Karenina looks beautiful, and Keira Knightly has grown into a very talented actress.  Twilight will dominate at the box office for the rest of November.

November 23rd

Silver Linings Playbook

Life of Pi

Hitchcock

Rise of the Guardians

Rust and Bone

Thanksgiving weekend has a lot of interesting options, Life of Pi is being hailed as "the next Avatar" in television spots, but I do not think audience are going to show up like they did for Avatar.  The film looks solid though.  Silver Linings Playbook will have the Juno effect, solid cast solid word of mouth, and it will do well at the box office.  Hitchcock and Rust and Bone both look fantastic but they will do solid business in their limited release.  Rise of the Guardians looks weird and I am not sure the marketing is working well at the moment, so it could be a lower box office draw.

November 30th

Killing them Softly

Brad Pitt playing a bad-ass never looked so good, this film has a great cast and solid reviews, and looks bloody (literally) brilliant.  I am there!

Must See-Flight, Wreck-It Ralph, Lincoln, Skyfall, Silver Linings Playbook, Hitchcock, Life of Pi, Killing Them Softly

Skip-Twilight (come on folks)