Oscar Roundup 2012: The DGA Goes to Affleck, So Who Wins Oscar?

On January 10, 2013 the Academy Award nominations were announced.  The two biggest snubs were in the Best Director category, and the snubees were Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck.  That same night the Broadcast Film Critics Awards (BFCA) hosted their awards, and wouldn't you know, Affleck won Best Director, and Argo took home Best Picture.  After that win Argo won Best Picture (Drama) at the Golden Globes, Affleck took home director there too.  Argo took home the Producer's Guild Award, and the following day Argo won Best Ensemble at the Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) Awards.  Both guilds equivalent honors of the Best Picture.  Last night Affleck did something only few others have done, won the Director's Guild of America (DGA) prize without an Oscar nomination.

With all of this support from almost every guild (namely the larger guilds) Argo is unstoppable in the Best Picture category.  Affleck's snub at the Oscars is being shoved in the Academy's face.  While Affleck does not have a director nomination, he is nominated as a Producer.  When Argo wins Best Picture at the Oscars Affleck will stand at the podium along with George Clooney and Grant Heslov.

Yet without a director nomination, Argo will make history on several levels.  As I stated above Affleck has won DGA, and is in a small company of director's who won DGA and were not nominated for Oscar.  One of the of those men is his director competitor Steven Spielberg.  Spielberg won the DGA for The Color Purple, but was not nominated for an Oscar.  Out of Africa won Best Picture that year, and The Color Purple was the only film to win 0 out of 11 nominations.  Affleck's Argo is being compared to another actor turned director's first quest towards Oscar, Ron Howard.  Howard's Apollo 13 won most of the awards Argo has won, but no Howard in the Best Director category.  Apollo 13 did not go on to win Best Picture, it was beat surprisingly by another actor turned director's film Braveheart.  Apollo 13 did win 2 Oscars, Best Editing, and Best Sound.

Argo would be the second film in Oscar history to win without a Best Director nomination.  The first was 1989's Driving Miss Daisy.  Daisy had 9 nominations winning four, Picture, Lead Actress-Jessica Tandy, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Makeup.  While Driving Miss Daisy had numerous acting nominations (three), Argo only has one for Alan Arkin.  Argo has seven nominations at the Oscars.

What are the next awards to pay attention to?  The American Cinema Editors (ACE) Awards, support from this guild would seal the win even further for me, and prove that there is hope for Argo to win this prize on Oscar night.  The Writer's Guild Awards (WGA) are going to be more important than ever.  While most have predicted Tony Kushner's Lincoln will win, many are switching teams with the barrage of Argo support.  If Argo wins hear it has a shot to win this at the Oscars as well.  The last, and probably most important precursor is the British Academy of Television and Film Awards (BAFTA). BAFTA have nominated Argo for seven awards as well.  these winners may be more of a wild card, but have a lot of cross over voters between here and the Oscars.  Affleck is even nominated for Best Actor here, so he has a lot of support look for him to win Director as well.

With Affleck winning all of these director prizes this makes Best Director one of the toughest categories to predict.  Who will could be anyone's guess.  Here is my best guess.  Spielberg was snubbed by BAFTA, which was shocking to me because Lincoln still scored the most nominations.

Life of Pi appears to have a lot of support from all the technical branches, and Ang Lee is a well respected director, after all this talk of Argo, and moving forward to Director and Oscar my prediction at this moment is Ang Lee.  Yet as many have cited how something can be nominated for Best Picture without a Best Director nomination makes sense, and Affleck should have been a nominee, along with the snubbed but forgotten Kathryn Bigelow.

Zero Dark Thirty is a Thrilling Ride into the Search for a Monster

Zero Dark Thirty (5 out of 5 Stars)

Directed by Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)

Written by Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)

Starring: Jessica Chastain, Jason Clarke, Kyle Chandler, and Joel Edgarton

The film that has wowed the critics, and myself has gotten too much attention for the subject of torture rather than the the quality of the film.  In a recent interview with director Kathryn Bigelow David Letterman broaches the subject, and Bigelow handles it beautifully stating that this film was not a point by point plotting, but used events and people to create the basis for one of the greatest manhunts of all time.  While torture is an element of this story, the film does not attempt to take a moral stand point on this subject, and many are criticizing Bigelow and Boal for letting this subject matter exist.  Bigelow was right in her interview torture happened, and moving forward the focus should be on the actual film.

For those living under a rock, Zero Dark Thirty focuses on the almost ten year search for terrorist Osama Bin Laden.  The film starts with the horrific calls to 911 on September 11, 2001.  From those first haunting moments the film follows a ten search for al-Quaeda terrorist leader Osama Bin Laden, and his death by a team of Navy S.E.A.L.S.  The film centers on Maya (Chastain) and CIA agent hell bent on Bin Laden's capture and death.  Maya works through torture, intelligence, and even attack to capture Bin Laden.

In an allegorical sense Maya represents director Kathryn Bigelow.  Bigelow is one the best working of the best working directors, and like Maya she operates in a man's world.  Many have made this comparison, and while they are right, Bigelow has proven herself to not be defined by gender.  Bigelow's direction is some of the best work this year; she helps take this film through different levels building the momentum.  Bigelow creates an aura around these real life events telling one of the most compelling stories of the year.  

Bigelow's last picture The Hurt Locker, was named Best Picture, and she was named Best Director; she was the first women to win Best Director.  In both of these films there is a sense of reality that films often lose when they enter the war zone.  Bigelow combines this realism in action which trascends beautifully from working with screenwriter mark Boal once again.  The team of Bigelow and Boal is a force to be reckoned with, and there is no stopping the way this duo put words on the screen.  Boal's screenplay is more than a chronicle, but an aptly drawn out battle, which forces you to intently observe the nuances of this search, and ultimately a battle play out.  In other hands this screenplay could have been simple ay a procedural, but this film succeeds to characterize not only the fight but even the smallest character.

Boal uses Maya to drive the story forward, and boy is Maya one BAMF (bad ass mother fucker).  From the first moments when Maya arrives to see Dan (Jason Clarke) while he tortures Ammar to get information from him you can tell Maya is willing to take on this challenge at any cost.  Chastain is brilliant as Maya; she is tough, vulnerable, funny, and hardcore.  In one scene she meets with the C.I.A.  director played by James Gandolfinni, and he asks what else have you done besides this, and Maya responds with a simple "nothing."  Maya pushes the limits, and Chastain's performance is one of the bravest performances of the entire year.  Last year Chastain proved she has talents on all levels with roles in Take Shelter, Tree of Life, The Help, and a few more; she was the breakout performer of the year, and this film proves just how much she can carry one of the best films of the year.

Chastain is the lone character who lasts throughout the whole film, but the team of Bigelow and Boal know how to characterize the rest of the ensemble.  From a brilliant performance by Jason Clarke as Dan whose torture techniques make you cringe with disbelief capture the brutal realism to Joel Edgarton and Chris Pratt who play Navy S.E.A.L.S. going into to get the kill.   This is one incredible ensemble, and Bigelow, and Boal make sure to flesh out the realistic moments with every moment of the film.

This is one of the best films of the year, the subject matter is handled beautifully, by the geniuses Bigelow, and Boal.  Along with Chastain this team is complete, and they work together effortlessly. Zero Dark Thirty is a thrilling ride into the search for a monster, and never lets you leave the edge of your seat.

Oscars go for Lincoln and Life of Pi while Snubbing Affleck and Bigelow

Today the Oscar nominations were announced with hilarious gusto by Emma Stone, and host Seth MacFarlene.  Before going on to the nominations, I must say that MacFarlene and Stone were the best announcers I have ever seen, and if this is any sign MacFarlene is going to be a great host, especially when you start with a Hitler joke.

Lincoln leads the nominations with 12, although Life of Pi is close behind with 11 nominations.  Both Lincoln and Life of Pi have performed the most consistently throughout this award season, and this includes in the most shocking category Best Director.  Spielberg, and Lee are the only two people who have consistently received nominations throughout the award season.  O. Russell has only been nominated by the Broadcast Film Critics, and nowhere else.  Haneke only had BAFTA, and Zeitlin appeared out of thing air, leaving the biggest snubs of the day Bigelow and Affleck in the dust.

Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild are the biggest surprises and gainers of the day, Amour received 5 nominations, and is the first foreign language film to be nominated for Best Picture since Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.  This is the only "genre" film to be nominated this year.  Beasts had a lot of support as well, and managed to pull off 4 nominations including Picture, Director, Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay.  After these two films shocking me I came down to Earth and realized Silver Linings Playbook received 7 nominations, and was the first film to have nominees in all four major categories since Warren Beatty's Red in 1981, 31 years ago.

Affleck missed out on a Director nomination for Argo, but the film itself scored 7 nominations, which is pretty impressive, although without Affleck the film looks weaker, and will not win Best Picture without a Director nomination.  Zero Dark Thirty was a heavy favorite with critics groups, but only managed to receive 5 nominations, and Bigelow was also snubbed, my guess is because of the torture issue.  Tom Hooper was nominated at the DGA just a few days ago, and his film received the magical 8 nominations (same as Dreamgirls), but no director nomination.  Django like Zero Dark had their director, Tarantino, left out in cold, and received 5 nominations.

In the acting categories the biggest snubs were John Hawkes for The Sessions, and Marion Cotillard who have consistently been nominated throughout the award show season.  While these folks missed out on the party the surprise inclusions were Joaquin Phoenix after his major gaffe, Jacki Weaver, she had no major precursor nomination, and Riva, and Wallis, although I predicted Wallis.  Emanuelle Riva is the oldest nominee ever, and Wallis is one of the youngest at 9.  One of the other fun things is that every nominee in Supporting Actor category is a past winner, this has never happened, and will mean someone adding a second trophy to their mantel.

Beyond Affleck and Bigelow's snubs this is a solid group of nominees, and I am proud they went for a small foreign language film and a movie about a young girl who lived in the bathtub.

Best Picture
Argo
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg-Lincoln
Michael Haneke-Amour
Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln
Denzel Washington-Flight
Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook
Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix-The Master

Best Actress
Naomi Watts-The Impossible
Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook
Emanuelle Riva-Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis-Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master
Robert DeNiro-Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin-Argo
Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field-Lincolm
Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables
Helen Hunt-The Sessions
Jacki Weaver-Silver Linings Playbook
Amy Adams-The Master

Best Adapted Screenplay
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Argo
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi

Best Original Screenplay
Flight
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Amour
Moonrise kingdom

Foreign Langauge Film
Amour
No
A Royal Affair
War Witch
Kon-Tiki

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
ParaNorman
Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-it Ralph

Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Documentary Feature
5 Broken Cameras
The Gatekeepers
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Searching for Sugar Man

Best Film Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Makeup.Hair Styling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

Best Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Best Original Song

"Before my Time" from Chasing Ice

"Pi's Lullaby"from Life of Pi

"Suddenly" from Les Miserable

"Everybody Needs a Best Friend" from Ted

"Skyfall"from Skyfall

Best Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Best Visual Effects

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Marvel's: The Avengers

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

DGA Picks Hooper Even with a Globe Snub

Today the Director's Guild of America named their top five and they were:

Ben Affleck-Argo
Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper-Les Miserables
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg-Lincoln

Going forward three facts  are important:

1) The DGA voting body is about 14,000 and the Oscar voting body is about 400

2) DGA nominations happened without any Oscar nomination influence.

3) Statistically they predict four out of five directors, in the last ten years 5/5 happened twice, 2005, and 2009, is this the year?  My money is on no.

So who is the weak one?  Hooper was my 6th man, I thought he would do well with this group, but I think Oscar voters are a bit more shrewd than DGA voters, the last director nominated for a musical was Rob Marshall, and his surefire win, ended in an upset to Roman Polanski.

While some will say Lee is the weak one, he and his film have some of the strongest guild support, and Lee is far more respected in the field.  The film is also well liked across the board.

Who will replace the fifth (or Hooper) look for more of a surprise nomination for Michael Haneke; he and his film are going to have more Academy support than most think (a hunch).  The Weinstein's could also push for O. Russell, but the film has lost a lot of steam and their slow roll out for the film has backfired more than worked.

Oscar Roundup 2012: Director's Guild Aim to Narrow Down a Crowded Field

Within a shortened awards season the Director's Guild Awards (DGA), may or not matter with regard to the actual Oscar nominees.  The ballots for the Oscars were due on January 3rd, but got pushed back to the 4th.  With the timeline changing and the Director's Guild have more members who vote on the award from people who direct both commercials and television shows the nominations for this award are apt to be different from Academy Award nominees.

This has been one of the best years for film, and while the Best Picture list is all but figured out, the Best Director category is harder to predict because there are only five as opposed to the potential ten Best Picture possibilities.

Here are the contenders for DGA in order of likelihood:

Locks:

Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty-Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty is the most critically acclaimed film of the year, and she has gotten praise all over the board.  Bigelow's proving to be a strong favorite, and ZDT is one of the two films to receive nominations from every guild, it will not fail here.

Ben Affleck-Argo-Argo is probably the most liked film of the year, and helmer Affleck is getting all of the credit.  Affleck has proven his growth as a director starting with Gone Baby Gone, and creating a masterful work here.  Like ZDT, Argo, is the other film which has recieved nominations from every guild.

Steven Spielberg-Lincoln-Spielberg did not get an Oscar nomination for War Horse this year, but this year he has the highest grossing film, and the film that's going to have the most nominations.  Spielberg is one of three locks with both the DGA and Oscar.

Strong Bets:

Ang Lee-Life of Pi-The film is one of biggest directorial feats of the year; he is a well respected director  who has been nominated three times, and won twice.  Life of Pi is seen as one of the films flying under the radar, and I think it will score a nomination here.

Quentin Tarantino-Django Unchained-Django is one every one's mind, and while controversial, Tarantino is a well respected director.  With a larger guild population voting; he seems to be a likely person people in television and film would nominate.

David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook-Never underestimate the power of directing the small intimate comedic drama.  O. Russell has cornered this market, received a nomination with The Fighter, and is becoming more respected by the day.

Long Shots

Tom Hooper-Les Miserables-Hooper's snub from Golden Globes was the shot heard round the award show world, and based on reviews his direction has been the biggest critique.  People pay attention to things like this, and while this guy received a nomination and won his first time around, I can't help but think he may be snubbed by this branch.

Paul Thomas Anderson-The Master-The Master is a well respected film from critics, but the guilds, except WGA and Golden Globes have been ignoring this film.  The Master was compared to last year's Tree of Life, but this film may not have the passion that film has, and I think it will be forgotten.

Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Souther Wild-The little film that could has a director, who helped right and score his own film.  Zeitlin's first feature film is a crowning achievement, and he could score nomination here out of respect.   The hard part is that this film has been ignored a lot as well, although being talked up by many.

Over the last few years DGA has matched Oscar solidly, but the changing time frame may prevent this.  Looking from 2001 through 2011, the DGA lined up well.

In 2001 DGA nominated Baz Lurhman for Moulin Rouge, and Christopher Nolan for Memento, they were replaced with veteran directors Robert Altman for Gosford Park, and David Lynch for Mullholland Dr.  In 2002 Pedro Almodovar's direction for Talk to Her was nominated for the Oscar, while Peter Jackson was nominated for the DGA  for Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers.  The following year Gary Ross received a DGA nomination for Seabiscuit but was replaced at the Oscars with City of God director Fernando Mirielles.   There have been only two years within the last 10 where Best Director has matched up with the DGA and Oscar, and they were 2005, and 2009.  Statistically every other year DGA has predicted 4 of the 5 nominees.  So who will be the five for DGA, and who would most likely get replaced?

DGA Nominees

Ben Affleck-Argo

Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty

Ang Lee-Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg-Lincoln

Quentin Tarantino-Django Unchained

(My 6th Man-Tom Hooper-Les Miserables)

Come Oscar nomination time I think Michael Haneke from Amour will score a Best Director nomination, and replace one of these men.  This would follow a trend in this category.