Showing posts with label Steven Spielberg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Steven Spielberg. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

The Magic of Steven Spielberg

Back in June 2011 (almost two years ago now) I wrote a post entitled "Does Produced by Steven Spielberg Mean Anything Anymore?"  I stand by my thoughts within this that Spielberg is losing his producer mojo, but there is also something impressive and magical about his legacy.

Last night I finally saw Jurassic Park 3-D, and as my friends and I were walking to the theatre two of us realized we never saw Jurassic Park the first time it was released.  Getting to see this film in the theatres was one of most fun experiences, from the intensity of the T-Rex stomp, to the velociraptor cornering the two children in the kitchen.  Even though I had seen this film a couple of times the score combined with that Spielberg brilliance made reminded me that even though this man is respected his genius is often taken for granted.

Spielberg has brought so many great films (and some duds Hook, Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, 1941, War Horse, War of the Worlds) but beyond these rare miss steps he has created some of the best and most memorable film experiences of the last almost 40 years.  From needing a bigger boat in Jaws (1975) to alien encounters with Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977) and E.T. the Extra Terrestrial (1982).  Spielberg has shared numerous adventures with Indiana Jones, but nothing more magical than Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981).  Spielberg has also focused on the more serious and historical like Schindler's List (1993), stormed the beach of Normandy in Saving Private Ryan (1998), and gave a glimpse into the final months of President Lincoln in well Lincoln (2012).

After listening to Sasha Stone's podcast on the 1975 Oscars and Jaws, and watching Jurassic Park last evening I have to agree with her that there is something incredible about a Spielberg film.  Spielberg makes you love the movie experience, and knows how to capture lightening in a bottle for the consumption of all movie goers.  From film snobs to average attendees who go for the escape, or the various combinations.  From the moments you hear the John Williams score, you instantly become sucked into a different world.  Spielberg has done a lot to advance film making, and if you look at his directing legacy (so far) you have to sit back and ponder just how one man created so many classic films.

Monday, February 18, 2013

Academy Award Week (2013): Best Director (No Your Pick Can't be Ben Affleck)

This year one of the most interesting, if not the most interesting race is Best Director.  Over the years at the Academy Awards Best Picture and Best Director often match up.  Over the last twenty years (from 1992-2012) Best Picture and Best Director have matched up 16 times, which is an impressive statistic.  This year Argo's name is chiseled on the statue already, and unless if you have been living under a rock you know Ben Affleck was snubbed.  Affleck has won this award at the BFCA, Golden Globes, DGA, and BAFTA.  Without Affleck nominated this makes this race a lot more interesting than I can remember.

While I am not going to go on a rant about sexism within the film industry I am a bit baffled at why more people over cited Affleck's snub instead of Bigelow's snub.  I do believe that this will go down as one of the biggest mistakes in Oscar history.

How do you define great direction, and who was "snubbed?"  One way at looking at great direction is by using auteur theory.  Auteur theory "holds that a director's film reflects the director's personal creative vision, as if they were the primary "auteur" (the French word for "author"). In spite of—and sometimes even because of—the production of the film as part of an industrial process, the auteur's creative voice is distinct enough to shine through all kinds of studio interference and through the collective process."  While this perspective is a bit more old school and looks at film as a one man show, many would attribute this vision to greats like Orson Welles, and Alfred Hitchcock.  These men controlled the vision for their films.

If you look at this year's director race many would describe David O. Russell's direction using auteur theory.  O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook is a passion project dedicated to his son.  O. Russell's film is about a bi-polar man returning home to his family.  O'Russell has talked openly about his son being bi-polar and what it meant for him to make this film.

Benh Zeitlin who directed Beasts of the Southern Wild directed the script and scored the film.  This was Zeitlin's first film and made on a shoe string budget.  Zeitlin's heart and soul went into this film, and his vision drives the heart of the film.

One of the reasons auteur theory is widely criticized is because it negates the contribution of other people who worked on the film stating the the director is the end all be all.  Zeitlin and O. Russell did not create their films out of thin air, no man is an island after all.  If you look at Steven Spielberg's work in Lincoln and here him talk about Tony Kushner's script, and every aspect of the film you feel this sense of teamwork.

This couldn't be more true with Ang Lee and his direction of Life of Pi.  Lee's work with his cinematographer, visual effects team, screenwriter, and son on created an beautiful experience from a book that was thought to be impossible to adapt to the big screen.  The use of 3D technology along with many other elements transcends most traditional aspects of film making, and made this an incredible achievement.

The nominees are 
Michael Haneke-Amour
Ang Lee-Life of Pi
David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg-Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild

Who will win?  Without a previous winner/front runner in the group this leads things wide open.  While many would probably say Spielberg I just do not think he is going to win.  My gut tells me this is a race between David O. Russell and Ang Lee.  In the past director's win in this category have won a good deal of the time because the film "feels important" or because it has an "epic" nature."  Think Ben-Hur, Lord of the Rings, Schindler's List, Out of Africa, The Sound of Music.  There are location shots, visual effects, and so on.  This could be Beasts, Pi, or Lincoln.  Zeitlin is in fifth leaving Lincoln and Pi to fit that category.  Pi and Lincoln are both well respected films, from respected directors.  Before I go on about those two films like Silver Linings Playbook rarely win director, Annie Hall fits within that category, but that rarely happens.  So I am going to go with my gut and say Ang Lee.

Will Win: Ang Lee-Life of Pi
Spoilers: Steven Spielberg and David O. Russell

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Oscar Round 2012:ACE Eddies (Editors Guild Award) go to Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, Brave, Breaking Bad, The Newsroom, and Nurse Jack

ACE Eddie Awards Oscars Academy Awards Argo Silver Linings Playbook newsIn the final build up leading up to the Oscar ceremony there are a few Guilds left to help try and shed some light on who will win at the Oscars.  The American Cinema Editors (ACE) Eddies award is give out awards to the best in, you guessed it, editing in film in television.  The guild breaks down the film category into four categories drama, comedy/musical, animated feature, and documentary feature.

Last night's nominees were:

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic):

  • Argo, William Goldenberg, A.C.E.
  • Life of Pi, Tim Squyres, A.C.E.
  • Lincoln, Michael Kahn, A.C.E.
  • Skyfall, Stuart Baird, A.C.E.
  • Zero Dark Thirty, Dylan Tichenor, A.C.E. and William Goldenberg, A.C.E.
(Comedy Musical, Documentary and Animated cats after the cut)
Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy or Musical)
  • The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Chris Gill
  • Les Misérables, Melanie Ann Oliver & Chris Dickens, A.C.E.
  • Moonrise Kingdom, Andrew Weisblum, A.C.E.
  • Silver Linings Playbook, Jay Cassidy, A.C.E. & Crispin Struthers
  • Ted, Jeff Freeman, A.C.E.
Best Edited Animated Feature Film
  • Brave, Nicolas C. Smith, A.C.E.
  • Frankenweenie, 
Chris Lebenzon, A.C.E. & Mark Solomon
  • Rise of the Guardians, 
Joyce Arrastia
  • Wreck-It Ralph, Tim Mertens
Best Edited Documentary Feature
  • Samsara, Ron Fricke & Mark Magidson
  • Searching for Sugar Man
. Malik Bendjelloul
  • West of Memphis, Billy McMillin

The winners were Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, Brave, and Searching for Sugar Man.  The next question does this help in predicting, or guessing what will happen next at the Oscars?  The answer unfortunately is not really. 

As we get closer to the Oscars one thing is certain the buzz around both the winners tonight is mounting, and these two films just may take home a good amount of the major awards.
In the feature film category both Argo, and Silver Linings Playbook were easily predicted winners here.   Argo will most likely win the editing award at the Academy Awards, Zero Dark Thirty was a threat at one point, but Argo's journey to Best Picture is preventing that win.  One thing is for certain you may end up hearing "And the Oscar goes to....Argo" or "And the Oscar goes to...Silver Linings Playbook" a lot on February 24th.  One of the other interesting elements are the constant standing ovations for Spielberg as he takes the stage.  Spielberg won film editor of the year last night.  Could Lincoln pull of the same achievement Braveheart did in 1995?

The next interesting category is Best Animated Feature, and while many folks are saying this award is up in the air, which there are many possibilities (except Pirates, and ParaNorman).  The race for this award seems to be between Brave, Wreck-It Ralph, and Frankenweenie.  I think Brave has a bigger lock on this than people are predicting, at the moment I think Wreck-It Ralph as the best odds, yet Brave keeps winning.  At the moment I am going to stick with my gut and say Brave wins.

In another world where no one is concerned with the Oscars....the television winners were as follows:

Best Edited Half-Hour Series for Television
"Nurse Jackie" - "Handle Your Scandal"
Gary Levy
Best Edited One-Hour Series for Commercial Television
"Breaking Bad" - "Gliding Over All”
Skip MacDonald, A.C.E.
Best Edited One-Hour Series for Non-Commercial Television
"The Newsroom" - "We Just Decided To (Pilot)"
Anne McCabe, A.C.E.
Best Edited Miniseries or Motion Picture for Television
"Hemingway & Gellhorn"
Walter Murch, A.C.E.
Best Edited Non-Scripted Series
"Frozen Planet" - "To the Ends of the Earth"
Andy Netley & Sharon Gillooly

Sunday, February 3, 2013

Oscar Roundup 2012: The DGA Goes to Affleck, So Who Wins Oscar?

On January 10, 2013 the Academy Award nominations were announced.  The two biggest snubs were in the Best Director category, and the snubees were Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck.  That same night the Broadcast Film Critics Awards (BFCA) hosted their awards, and wouldn't you know, Affleck won Best Director, and Argo took home Best Picture.  After that win Argo won Best Picture (Drama) at the Golden Globes, Affleck took home director there too.  Argo took home the Producer's Guild Award, and the following day Argo won Best Ensemble at the Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) Awards.  Both guilds equivalent honors of the Best Picture.  Last night Affleck did something only few others have done, won the Director's Guild of America (DGA) prize without an Oscar nomination.

With all of this support from almost every guild (namely the larger guilds) Argo is unstoppable in the Best Picture category.  Affleck's snub at the Oscars is being shoved in the Academy's face.  While Affleck does not have a director nomination, he is nominated as a Producer.  When Argo wins Best Picture at the Oscars Affleck will stand at the podium along with George Clooney and Grant Heslov.

Yet without a director nomination, Argo will make history on several levels.  As I stated above Affleck has won DGA, and is in a small company of director's who won DGA and were not nominated for Oscar.  One of the of those men is his director competitor Steven Spielberg.  Spielberg won the DGA for The Color Purple, but was not nominated for an Oscar.  Out of Africa won Best Picture that year, and The Color Purple was the only film to win 0 out of 11 nominations.  Affleck's Argo is being compared to another actor turned director's first quest towards Oscar, Ron Howard.  Howard's Apollo 13 won most of the awards Argo has won, but no Howard in the Best Director category.  Apollo 13 did not go on to win Best Picture, it was beat surprisingly by another actor turned director's film Braveheart.  Apollo 13 did win 2 Oscars, Best Editing, and Best Sound.

Argo would be the second film in Oscar history to win without a Best Director nomination.  The first was 1989's Driving Miss Daisy.  Daisy had 9 nominations winning four, Picture, Lead Actress-Jessica Tandy, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Makeup.  While Driving Miss Daisy had numerous acting nominations (three), Argo only has one for Alan Arkin.  Argo has seven nominations at the Oscars.

What are the next awards to pay attention to?  The American Cinema Editors (ACE) Awards, support from this guild would seal the win even further for me, and prove that there is hope for Argo to win this prize on Oscar night.  The Writer's Guild Awards (WGA) are going to be more important than ever.  While most have predicted Tony Kushner's Lincoln will win, many are switching teams with the barrage of Argo support.  If Argo wins hear it has a shot to win this at the Oscars as well.  The last, and probably most important precursor is the British Academy of Television and Film Awards (BAFTA). BAFTA have nominated Argo for seven awards as well.  these winners may be more of a wild card, but have a lot of cross over voters between here and the Oscars.  Affleck is even nominated for Best Actor here, so he has a lot of support look for him to win Director as well.

With Affleck winning all of these director prizes this makes Best Director one of the toughest categories to predict.  Who will could be anyone's guess.  Here is my best guess.  Spielberg was snubbed by BAFTA, which was shocking to me because Lincoln still scored the most nominations.

Life of Pi appears to have a lot of support from all the technical branches, and Ang Lee is a well respected director, after all this talk of Argo, and moving forward to Director and Oscar my prediction at this moment is Ang Lee.  Yet as many have cited how something can be nominated for Best Picture without a Best Director nomination makes sense, and Affleck should have been a nominee, along with the snubbed but forgotten Kathryn Bigelow.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Lincoln leads BAFTA Nominations this Year, While they Leave Most Brits Behind

A couple of days ago in analyzing and predicting the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTA) there were couple of trends, they line up with Oscar pretty well, but also tend to bolster British nominees.  This year broke with that pattern to some extent, although this years nominees have that traditional feel.

While films like Skyfall and Best Exotic Marigold Hotel made the Best British Film list, I was convinced one of them would make the Best Film list.  BAFTA did not ignore one of their British made films, they nominated Les Miserables in both categories.  

The Best Director category had some shake ups as well, making the BAFTA more unique.  Michael Haneke and Quentin Tarantino were nominated, replacing sure fire bet Steven Spielberg for Lincoln and shockingly the British director Tom Hooper, for Best Film nominee Les Mis!  One day after the Director's Guild Awards (DGA) this shakes things up more than ever.  One thing is certain Spielberg will not be ignored this year, and I am shocked he missed the cut here because the film has the most nominations with 10, but Hooper is more vulnerable than ever! Hooper not being embraced by his own statesmen is a big deal.  The DGA will typically nominate a musical director, while Oscar will forget them Bill Condon for Dreamgirls, and Baz Lurhmann for Moulin Rouge are two examples of this within the last decade.  Hooper got a boost yesterday, but being forgotten today is proof this category is a hard one to predict.  Of the two BAFTA nominees Haneke has the biggest chance at unseating him tomorrow morning.

Haneke's nomination is proof this award group supports foreign language films more, but Oscar may follow suit this year.  Haneke's films received four major nominations, the other three nominations were Best Film Not in the English Language, Emanuelle Riva in Best Leading Actress, and Best Original Screenplay.  Amour could surprise tomorrow morning and earn nominations in all of these categories.  Amour helped shake things up in many of these categories, and BAFTA did not totally forget the Brits in the acting categories.

Skyfall helped Judi Dench score her 14th film nomination at the BAFTA's with a Best Supporting Actress nomination for Skyfall, and while not a Brit Javier Bardem was nominated in the Supporting Actor category for Skyfall as well.  Helen Mirren was the only other British acting nominee; she was nominated in the Lead Actress category for Hitchcock.  

These two ladies nominations were not surprising, but there were one or two surprises in the acting categories.  Ben Affleck got an acting nomination for Argo, this is his first nomination and he beat out John Hawkes whose co-star Helen Hunt received a nomination for the film.  Although beyond this most of the nominees were not unexpected.

While these awards do not have a perfect line-up with the Academy Awards they are a good barometer for who will get nominations, and who will get snubbed. Here is a list of all the nominees, and after a look at sure fire BAFTA nominees, who will show up at Oscar.

Surefire nominees tomorrow:

BEST FILM
  • ARGO Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney
  • LES MISÉRABLES Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh
  • LIFE OF PI Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark
  • LINCOLN Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy
  • ZERO DARK THIRTY Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
  • ANNA KARENINA Joe Wright, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Paul Webster, Tom Stoppard
  • THE BEST EXOTIC MARIGOLD HOTEL John Madden, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Ol Parker
  • LES MISÉRABLES Tom Hooper, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh, William Nicholson, Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer
  • SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS Martin McDonagh, Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin
  • SKYFALL Sam Mendes, Michael G. Wilson, Barbara Broccoli, Neal Purvis, Robert Wade, John Logan
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
  • BART LAYTON (Director), DIMITRI DOGANIS (Producer) The Imposter
  • DAVID MORRIS (Director), JACQUI MORRIS (Director/Producer) McCullin
  • DEXTER FLETCHER (Director/Writer), DANNY KING (Writer) Wild Bill
  • JAMES BOBIN (Director) The Muppets
  • TINA GHARAVI (Director/Writer) I Am Nasrine
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
  • AMOUR Michael Haneke, Margaret Ménégoz
  • HEADHUNTERS Morten Tyldum, Marianne Gray, Asle Vatn
  • THE HUNT Thomas Vinterberg, Sisse Graum Jørgensen, Morten Kaufmann
  • RUST AND BONE Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux
  • UNTOUCHABLE Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache, Nicolas Duval Adassovsky, Yann Zenou, Laurent Zeitoun
DOCUMENTARY
  • THE IMPOSTER Bart Layton, Dimitri Doganis
  • MARLEY Kevin Macdonald, Steve Bing, Charles Steel
  • McCULLIN David Morris, Jacqui Morris
  • SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn
  • WEST OF MEMPHIS Amy Berg
ANIMATED FILM
  • BRAVE Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman
  • FRANKENWEENIE Tim Burton
  • PARANORMAN Sam Fell, Chris Butler
DIRECTOR
  • AMOUR Michael Haneke
  • ARGO Ben Affleck
  • DJANGO UNCHAINED Quentin Tarantino
  • LIFE OF PI Ang Lee
  • ZERO DARK THIRTY Kathryn Bigelow
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
  • AMOUR Michael Haneke
  • DJANGO UNCHAINED Quentin Tarantino
  • THE MASTER Paul Thomas Anderson
  • MOONRISE KINGDOM Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
  • ZERO DARK THIRTY Mark Boal
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
  • ARGO Chris Terrio
  • BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin
  • LIFE OF PI David Magee
  • LINCOLN Tony Kushner
  • SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK David O. Russell
LEADING ACTOR
  • BEN AFFLECK Argo
  • BRADLEY COOPER Silver Linings Playbook
  • DANIEL DAY-LEWIS Lincoln
  • HUGH JACKMAN Les Misérables
  • JOAQUIN PHOENIX The Master
LEADING ACTRESS
  • EMMANUELLE RIVA Amour
  • HELEN MIRREN Hitchcock
  • JENNIFER LAWRENCE Silver Linings Playbook
  • JESSICA CHASTAIN Zero Dark Thirty
  • MARION COTILLARD Rust and Bone
SUPPORTING ACTOR
  • ALAN ARKIN Argo
  • CHRISTOPH WALTZ Django Unchained
  • JAVIER BARDEM Skyfall
  • PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN The Master
  • TOMMY LEE JONES Lincoln
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
  • AMY ADAMS The Master
  • ANNE HATHAWAY Les Misérables
  • HELEN HUNT The Sessions
  • JUDI DENCH Skyfall
  • SALLY FIELD Lincoln
ORIGINAL MUSIC
  • ANNA KARENINA Dario Marianelli
  • ARGO Alexandre Desplat
  • LIFE OF PI Mychael Danna
  • LINCOLN John Williams
  • SKYFALL Thomas Newman
CINEMATOGRAPHY
  • ANNA KARENINA Seamus McGarvey
  • LES MISÉRABLES Danny Cohen
  • LIFE OF PI Claudio Miranda
  • LINCOLN Janusz Kaminski
  • SKYFALL Roger Deakins
EDITING
  • ARGO William Goldenberg
  • DJANGO UNCHAINED Fred Raskin
  • LIFE OF PI Tim Squyres
  • SKYFALL Stuart Baird
  • ZERO DARK THIRTY Dylan Tichenor, William Goldenberg
PRODUCTION DESIGN
  • ANNA KARENINA Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
  • LES MISÉRABLES Eve Stewart, Anna Lynch-Robinson
  • LIFE OF PI David Gropman, Anna Pinnock
  • LINCOLN Rick Carter, Jim Erickson
  • SKYFALL Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock
COSTUME DESIGN
  • ANNA KARENINA Jacqueline Durran
  • GREAT EXPECTATIONS Beatrix Aruna Pasztor
  • LES MISÉRABLES Paco Delgado
  • LINCOLN Joanna Johnston
  • SNOW WHITE AND THE HUNTSMAN Colleen Atwood
MAKE UP & HAIR
  • ANNA KARENINA Ivana Primorac
  • HITCHCOCK Julie Hewett, Martin Samuel, Howard Berger
  • THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY Peter Swords King, Richard Taylor, Rick Findlater
  • LES MISÉRABLES Lisa Westcott
  • LINCOLN Lois Burwell, Kay Georgiou
SOUND
  • DJANGO UNCHAINED Mark Ulano, Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Wylie Stateman
  • THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY Tony Johnson, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick, Brent Burge, Chris Ward
  • LES MISÉRABLES Simon Hayes, Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Jonathan Allen, Lee Walpole, John Warhurst
  • LIFE OF PI Drew Kunin, Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton, Ron Bartlett, D. M. Hemphill
  • SKYFALL Stuart Wilson, Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Per Hallberg, Karen Baker Landers
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
  • THE DARK KNIGHT RISES Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Peter Bebb, Andrew Lockley
  • THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White
  • LIFE OF PI Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer
  • MARVEL AVENGERS ASSEMBLE Nominees TBC
  • PROMETHEUS Richard Stammers, Charley Henley, Trevor Wood, Paul Butterworth
SHORT ANIMATION
  • HERE TO FALL Kris Kelly, Evelyn McGrath
  • I’M FINE THANKS Eamonn O’Neill
  • THE MAKING OF LONGBIRD Will Anderson, Ainslie Henderson
SHORT FILM
  • THE CURSE Fyzal Boulifa, Gavin Humphries
  • GOOD NIGHT Muriel d’Ansembourg, Eva Sigurdardottir
  • SWIMMER Lynne Ramsay, Peter Carlton, Diarmid Scrimshaw
  • TUMULT Johnny Barrington, Rhianna Andrews
  • THE VOORMAN PROBLEM Mark Gill, Baldwin Li
THE EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
  • ELIZABETH OLSEN
  • ANDREA RISEBOROUGH
  • SURAJ SHARMA
  • JUNO TEMPLE
  • ALICIA VIKANDER

Surefire Oscar Nominees


Best Picture-All of them!

Best Director-Affleck, Bigelow, and Lee

Best Actor-Cooper, Jackman, Day-Lewis

Best Actress-Lawrence, Chastain, and Cotillard

Best Supporting Actress-Field, Hathaway Hunt

Best Supporting Actor-Arkin, Seymour Hoffman, and Lee Jones

Of the rest of the nominees many have them have a strong chance, but these awards never line up right away, so prepare to pick a few changes for tomorrow morning, my predictions are coming later today!