Comedy Series Emmy Submissions

So for those who may not know, but odds are that if you read about pop culture you do, everyone submits an episode (s) for the perspective category they are nominated for.  This is this year's comedy acting race, and some analysis on the race (so far).

BEST COMEDY SERIES:
 30 ROCK * Season 6 * NBC
Tape A: "Idiots Are People Two!" & "Idiots Are People Three!"
Tape B: "The Tuxedo Begins" & "St. Patrick's Day"
Tape C: "Meet the Woggels!" & "Murphy Brown Lied to Us"

THE BIG BANG THEORY * Season 5 * CBS
Tape A: "The Hawking Excitation" & "The Countdown Reflection"
Tape B: "The Russian Rocket Reaction" & "The Beta Test Initiation"
Tape C: "The Ornithophobia Diffusion" & "The Shiny Trinket Maneuver"

CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM * Season 8 * HBO
Tape A: "Vow of Silence" & "The Hero"
Tape B: "Palestinian Chicken" & "Car Periscope"
Tape C: "Mister Softee" & "Larry vs. Michael J. Fox"

GIRLS * Season 1 * HBO
Tape A: "Pilot" & "Vagina Panic"
Tape B: "Hannah's Diary" & "Hard Being Easy"
Tape C: "Leave Me Alone" & "She Did"

MODERN FAMILY * Season 3 * ABC
Tape A: "Door to Door" & "Aunt Mommy"
Tape B: "Leap Day" & "Baby on Board"
Tape C: "Punkin' Chunkin'" & "Egg Drop"

VEEP * Season 1 * HBO
Tape A: "Pilot" & "Catherine"
Tape B: "Nicknames" & "Baseball"
Tape C: "Full Disclosure" & "Tears"

Analysis: Comedy series seems locked up, but with these episodes, and recent developments there is always some doubt.  Modern Family has won twice, and the show is favored to win for a third time this year.  I would say that their recent contract disputes, weaker set of episodes, and lack on nominations in the writing category, which they won two years in a row, sets them back.  The biggest spoilers are HBO's Veep, Curb Your Enthusiasm and CBS's The Big Bang Theory.  Curb had an incredible season, and the show is beloved, Veep has a hip factor, and started out strong, while Big Bang harkens back to the traditional sitcom.  Curb is the biggest spoiler, but it feels too late.  Big Bang would make the most sense, because its well liked and popular. Modern Family is the most nominated series, I predict it wins one last year (this one) and is done.  30 Rock may have scored a lot of nominations, but the show is done, and I am shocked Girls made it into this category, but I do not think the average voter will get it.

1-Modern Family
2-Curb Your Enthusiasm
3-The Big Bang Theory
4-Veep
5-30 Rock
6-Girls

BEST COMEDY ACTOR:  
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock ("Live from Studio 6H")
Don Cheadle - House of Lies ("Gods of Dangerous Financial Instruments")
Louis CK - Louie ("Duckling")
Jon Cryer - Two and a Half Men ("Frodo's Headshots")
Larry David - Curb Your Enthusiasm ("Palestinian Chicken")
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory ("The Werewolf Transformation")


Analysis: This race boils down to three men, two playing themselves and one playing a geek.  At the moment my predicted front runner is hip comic Louis C.K.; he is hilarious and heat warming in his episode where he is going overseas to perform for the troops an his two daughters pack a baby duck in his suit case to keep him safe.  David picked one of his funniest episodes ever, where he goes to a Palestinian restaurant because he likes there chicken, one funny thing happens after another.  Parsons is the perennial favorites with two wins under his belt (they love repeat winners).  Parsons episode is solid.  I personally would pick David based on the tapes, but I think he's in third at the moment.  Louis C.K.'s show is more current, and hes a triple nominee, with a great tape.  Just watch out for that threepeat from Parsons!


1-Louis CK
2-Jim Parsons
3-Larry David
4-Alec Baldwin
5-Jon Cryer
6-Don Cheedle

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS:
Zooey Deschanel - New Girl ("Bad in Bed")  
Lena Dunham - Girls ("She Did")
Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie ("Disneyland Sucks")
Tina Fey - 30 Rock ("The Tuxedo Begins")
Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Veep ("Tears")
Melissa McCarthy - Mike and Molly ("The Dress")
Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation ("Win, Lose or Draw")


Seven nominees!  Lots of contenders, but two are out, the F's Fey and Falco.  The two women have their trophies.  Dunham picked a poor tape, I would say she's out.  And then there were four.  McCarthy won on a weak tape last year, but I do not think she will repeat, look for her to take Guest Actress.  Deschanel submitted well, but will the Emmy voters love her quirck enough?  My thoughts are no.  Leaving two women Poehler and and Dreyfus to battle it out.  Both have solid tapes, and are well respected, but look for Dreyfus to win out.  Dreyfus is nominee from a Best Comedy Series nominee this year, while the Emmys snubbed Parks and Recreation.  Will this matter ? Maybe.  Looking at the past winners many of these ladies shows were ignored, especially in recent years, Melissa McCarthy, Toni Collette, Julia Louis Drefus (Old Christine), and Helen Hunt for the last two years of Mad About You.  Tight race and data matters so the edge goes to Dreyfus.


1-Julia Louis Dreyfus
2-Amy Poehler
3- Zooey Deschanel 
4-Melissa McCarthy
5-Lena Dunham
6-Tina Fey
7-Edie Falco

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR:  
Ty Burrell - Modern Family ("Lifetime Supply")
Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family ("Leap Day")
Max Greenfield - New Girl ("Control")
Bill Hader - Saturday Night Live ("Host: Katy Perry")
Ed O'Neill - Modern Family ("Baby on Board")
Eric Stonestreet - Modern Family ("Treehouse")


Analysis: If this were based on tape alone I would pick Max Greenfield, but the truth is that with four nominees the other Modern Family guys help each other out.  My guess is that like The West Wing the show will have every supporting male win.  With that said who stands the best shot to win next for the show?  This year the tapes are proving to be in Jesse Tyler Ferguson's favor.  Each tape seems to help him out while none really help Ed O'Neil.  Eric has a strong tape on his own, and is great in many of the other tapes so look for him as a spoiler.  Burrell's character is beloved, like Stonestreet's because their humor is more laugh out loud than dry so he could spoil as well.  Hader is out!


1-Jessie Tyler Ferguson
2-Ty Burrell
3-Eric Stonestreet
4-Max Greenfield
5-Ed O'Neil
6-Bill Hader 

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  
Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory ("The Shiny Trinket Maneuver")
Julie Bowen - Modern Family ("Go Bullfrogs!")
Kathryn Joosten - Desperate Housewives ("Finishing the Hat")
Merritt Wever - Nurse Jackie ("One-Armed Jacks")
Kristen Wiig - Saturday Night Live ("Host: Mick Jagger")
Sofia Vergara - Modern Family ("Tableau Vivant")


Analysis: Look for three women to dominate this, Vergara, Wiig, and Joosten.  Why?  Vergara has finally submitted an incredible tape, and she steals the show on Bowen's tape as well.  If they go for the best they should pick her.  Why the other two ladies? Sentimentality.  Sure Joosten and Wiig are both talented, but sentiment will play a major role here.  Wiig's swan son on SNL highlights her funniest moments and sends her off with graceful dancing so touching!  Joosten is a favorite among the Academy, and her death could have a major impact on voters.  This happens, but mainly when the performance is so out of this world like Heath Ledger or Peter Finch.


Predictions
1-Kristin Wiig
2-Sofia Vergara
3-Kathryn Joosten
4-Julie Bown
5-Mayim Bialik
6-Merritt Weaver

BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTOR:
Will Arnett - 30 Rock ("Idiots Are People Three!")
Bobby Cannavale - Nurse Jackie ("Disneyland Sucks")
Jimmy Fallon - Saturday Night Live ("Host: Jimmy Fallon")
Michael J. Fox - Curb Your Enthusiasm ("Larry vs. Michael J. Fox")
Jon Hamm - 30 Rock ("Live from Studio 6H")
Greg Kinnear - Modern Family ("Me? Jealous?")


Prediction:Jimmy Fallon vs. Michael J. Fox-This is a nail biter, but I think Fallon will win.

BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTRESS:
Elizabeth Banks - 30 Rock ("The Return of Avery Jessup")
Kathy Bates - Two and a Half Men ("Why We Gave Up Women")
Margaret Cho - 30 Rock ("The Return of Avery Jessup")
Dot-Marie Jones - Glee ("Choke")
Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live ("Host: Melissa McCarthy")
Maya Rudolph - Saturday Night Live ("Host: Maya Rudolph")


Prediction-Dot Marie Jones has a shot this year, but look for Melissa McCarthy to actually make the judges laugh


BEST COMEDY WRITING:Community - Chris McKenna - "Remedial Chaos Theory"
Girls - Lena Dunham - "Pilot"
Louie - Louis CK - "Pregnant"
Parks and Recreation - Amy Poehler - "The Debate"
Parks and Recreation - Michael Schur - "Win, Lose or Draw"


Prediction-They are always the wild card group, and I think this is between Girls and Parks and Recreation, with Girls squeaking out the win for four time nominated Dunham.

BEST COMEDY DIRECTING:Curb Your Enthusiasm - Robert B. Weide - "Palestinian Chicken"
Girls - Lena Dunham - "She Did"
Louie - Louis CK - "Duckling"
New Girl - Jake Kasdan - "Pilot"
Modern Family - Steven Levitan - "Baby on Board"
Modern Family - Jason Winer - "Virgin Territory"  


Prediction: Louie vs. Curb, look for Duckling to steal their hearts and impress them with great direction.