Here's how this shakes out:
Two nominees from last year will most likely be booted from this race, and those are both Glee, and The Office. The Office is out, the show has only won four Emmy Awards, one writing award, one directing, and for Outstanding Comedy Series all different years. The show is a fossil and longer holds any merit, losing credibility, and if the show gets nominated the system is a failure. Emmy voters are smart enough to walk away.
Glee is off the mark, and no longer has the cool factor that drive Emmy voters to include this series. The first season garnered 20 nominations, but lost out to Modern Family. Modern Family dominated season two, and Glee fell further with 12 nominations, and won only two. The show no longer is relevant, and has critically gone even further down hill. If Glee makes it back in I would be shocked.
There are too many new shows, and a few in their later seasons that the Emmy Awards will want to validate, and make themselves relevant. This list includes: Community, Girls, Louie, New Girl, and Veep.
Community has been all over the news, mostly with press about negative things. Dan Harmon and Chevy Chase had a famous fight, with an infamous voicemail. Dan Harmon was forced to step down as EP, and Chevy was almost given the boot. The shows hiatus made people angry and brought back higher ratings for the show. Community is on the low end of this list, but anything is possible. May get a writing and directing nomination, but I doubt it scores in the comedy race.
Girls is probably too hip for these old voters, and while many people will compare this show to Sex and the City the difference is the age thing. Viewers will not connect to this the way they did to Sex and the City. City was about women in their late 30s and 40s who were a bit more relate able, while these characters feel like planet mars to outsiders of this culture. On the flip side the show is a phenomenon, and Dunham is the it girl. My thought is too polarizing and will gain a few other nominations, but not here.
Louie is similar to Curb in that it follows Louis C.K. in the midst of raising his daughters, and trying to become successful as a stand up comic. Louie is also another hip show, and while many think voters will cling to this show (and I will admit it has a shot) I think voters may not find it as funny unless they like his work. I would say this has the second highest chance of scoring a nomination.
If you asked me in the fall which show had the best chance of sealing up the sixth spot I would have said New Girl. The show lost some steam as the season progressed because ratings dipped, and newer shows out shined this more traditional sitcom like series.
One show that I think will steal the sixth spot and proved brighter than any of the others is Veep. Veep is just the kind of show that makes the Academy drool. Dreyfus is a previous Emmy winner and creator Armando Ianucci has this way of structuring the show that makes this high brow comedy with lots of curse words one that I imagine many people will check off on their list. This show has snob appeal, yet makes one of the highest offices so relate able. I think this takes the sixth spot.
Look for Julia Louis-Dreyfus to compete in the most competitive category at this year's Emmy Awards, Lead Actress in a Comedy Series, a category so crowded last year's winner may not be invited back!
Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation
30 Rock
Veep
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin-30 Rock
Louis C.K.-Louie
Jon Cryer-Two and a Half Men
Larry David-Curb Your Enthusiasm
Johnny Galecki-The Big Bang Theory
Jim Parsons-The Big Bang Theory
Lead Actress in Comedy Series
Zooey Deschanel-New Girl
Lena Dunham-Girls
Tina Fey-30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep
Melissa McCarthy-Mike and Molly
Amy Poehler-Parks and Recreation
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Ty Burrell-Modern Family
Jessie Tyler Ferguson-Modern Family
Tony Hale-Veep
Ed O'Neil-Modern Family
Nick Offerman-Parks and Recreation
Eric Stonestreet-Modern Family
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Julie Bowen-Modern Family
Kathryn Joosten-Desperate Housewives
Jane Lynch-Glee
Sofia Vergara-Modern Family
Betty White-Hot in Cleveland
Kristin Wiig-Saturday Night Live
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