Now that the Emmy nominations are out, and the mistakes and triumphs have been laid to bed (almost) here are my initial gut reactions on who will win (should win), before the tapes the shows, and actors have been released.
BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Game of Thrones"
"House of Cards"
I would say that Mad Men, and House of Cards are out, but even the latter has a better shot. Downton could win, it won SAG, the actors are very supportive of this show. I think this is a three way race between Bad, Thrones, and Homeland. Homeland has the fact that it's won on its side, got more acting nominations, and writing and directing nominations. Thrones has the most nominations, including a writing nomination, more acting and a cinematography nomination (which its never received). Breaking Bad has never gotten a writing nomination, but got two nominations this year, and voting will occur while the final part of the last season airs. This is a tough one, but at the moment, my gut goes with Breaking Bad.
Will Win:Breaking Bad
Should Win: Any of the three top contenders, I'd pick Homeland
BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Hugh Bonneville, "Downton Abbey"
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
Jeff Daniels, "The Newsroom"
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"
Damian Lewis, "Homeland"
Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards"
This is the hardest race to predict, Lewis was a bit of a surprise last year, and Kyle Chandler beating John Hamm, was one of the biggest surprises ever. So who takes the prize? Bonneville is the weakest link, but he has more material then last year. Cranston does not have any tape that I can think of, and has won many times before, I think he could win next year. If Hamm submits the season finale he's a contender. Lewis has Q&A, Daniels The Pilot, and Spacey has 3 great episodes. My gut is between newcomers Spacey and Daniels, but could this be Hamm's year? At the moment I am going with Spacey.
Will and Should Win: Kevin Spacey
BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Connie Britton, "Nashville"
Claire Danes, "Homeland"
Michelle Dockery, "Downton Abbey"
Vera Farmiga, "Bates Motel"
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"
Kerry Washington, "Scandal"
Robin Wright, "House of Cards"
7 ladies, another great category, I still am angry the snubbed Marguilles. Moss, Britton, Wright, Dockery, and Farmiga are the long shots of the bunch. Last year's winner Claire Danes is the favorite, but Kerry Washington is a serious threat especially with history on her side; she is the first black actress to be nominated in this category since 1995. I think Danes may lose this one honestly, and while history shouldn't ensure a win Washington is great in the show.
Will Win: Kerry Washington
Should Win: Claire Danes
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jonathan Banks, "Breaking Bad"
Bobby Cannavale, "Boardwalk Empire"
Jim Carter, "Downton Abbey"
Peter Dinklage, "Game of Thrones"
Mandy Patinkin, "Homeland"
Aaron Paul, "Breaking Bad"
I would have only nominated two of these people so predicting this list will be tough. The Emmy Awards like Cannavale, he has an Emmy for Will & Grace, has now been nominated twice for Nurse Jackie, and now enters the major categories. He chews scenery with the best of em, and could win. I would say this is anyone's guess, but I think Mandy Patinkin is the favorite.
Will and Should Win: Mandy Patinkin
BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Morena Baccarin, "Homeland"
Christine Baranski, "The Good Wife"
Emilia Clarke, "Game of Thrones"
Anna Gunn, "Breaking Bad"
Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men"
Maggie Smith, "Downton Abbey"
Most of the time I would say Smith has most awards in the bag, but I do not think she has this one, not even close.Clarke is solid, but I can't see her winning. Hendricks doesn't have many tapes. I could se Baranski winning; she has good tapes and is well like. I think Anna Gunn takes this!
Will and Should Win: Anna Gunn
BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTOR
Dan Bucatinsky, "Scandal"
Michael J. Fox, "The Good Wife"
Rupert Friend, "Homeland"
Harry Hamlin, "Mad Men"
Nathan Lane, "The Good Wife"
Robert Morse, "Mad Men"
Will and Should Win: Nathan Lane
BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTRESS
Linda Cardellini, "Mad Men"
Joan Cusack, "Shameless"
Jane Fonda, "The Newsroom"
Margo Martindale, "The Americans"
Carrie Preston, "The Good Wife"
Diana Rigg, "Game of Thrones"
Will Win: Jane Fonda
Should Win: Carrie Preston
BEST COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory"
Girls is out, too polarizing, unlike Sex and the City, there are ardent haters. I do not think Big Bang has a shot either, same acting nominations, no writing or directing, I think the Academy views this show as too cute, and not "important" enough. Louie and Veep score major bumps, but Veep has no writing or directing nominations, shows of this pedigree rarely win this award without them. Louis C.K. just received 9 nominations today, and his show could win out. I think this is between 30 Rock, and Modern Family. Tough call! Rock has the last two episodes, which are fantastic and both nominated for writing, and one is nominated for directing. Modern Family has only one directing nomination. I am going to go out on a limb with this one.
Will Win: 30 Rock
Should Win: Louie
BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
Jason Bateman, "Arrested Development"
Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"
Louis C.K., "Louie"
Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes"
Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"
Development was majorly snubbed, but Bateman could win if they judge based on tapes, and the Academy could make up for the snub. Baldwin is very well liked, but has had some bad press lately, never prevented him from winning. Louis C.K. was obviously well liked, but comedians rarely win in the acting categories. My money is on C.K. this year.
Will and Should Win: Louis C.K.
BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Laura Dern, "Enlightened"
Lena Dunham, "Girls"
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"
Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"
Tough call, I think Dreyfuss is going to simply repeat, the best way to honor Veep. The rest of the nominees all have a shot, but I think Falco, Dunham, and Dern should all be happy for the nomination. Fey could get tapped for a parting tap, like at SAG. Could this be the year they finally honor Poehler? They do not seem to like her show, so probably not.
Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfuss
Should: Laura Dern
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
Adam Driver, "Girls"
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family"
Bill Hader, "Saturday Night Live"
Tony Hale, "Veep"
Ed O'Neill, "Modern Family"
Last years winner is gone! I am pretty surprised Hale, and Driver made this list, but they are both great. Hader will submit his farewell episode, great episode for him. I think this is where Modern Family continues their winning streak, and with Ty Burell again, although I could see them finally honoring O'Neill.
Will Win: Ty Burrell
Should Win: Adam Driver
BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mayim Bialik, "The Big Bang Theory"
Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"
Anna Chlumsky, "Veep"
Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock"
Jane Lynch, "Glee"
Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family"
Merritt Wever, "Nurse Jackie"
If Jane Lynch wins for this I would be shocked, but they like Glee again for some reason. I could honestly see any of these women winning. Bowen has won two years running, but after a weak season I can't think of a single tape that she can win with. I think this is going to be between Krakowski; she is great in the finale. I do think this will be based on tapes, but this is going to come right now Krakowski is my prediction.
Will Win: Jane Krakowski
Should Win: Anna Chlumsky
BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTOR
Louie C.K., "Saturday Night Live"
Bobby Cannavale, "Nurse Jackie"
Will Forte, "30 Rock"
Nathan Lane, "Modern Family"
Bob Newhart, "The Big Bang Theory"
Justin Timberlake, "Saturday Night Live"
Will and Should Win: Bob Newhart
BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTRESS
Dot-Marie Jones, "Glee"
Melissa Leo, "Louie"
Melissa McCarthy, "Saturday Night Live"
Molly Shannon, "Enlightened"
Elaine Stritch, "30 Rock"
Kristin Wiig, "Saturday Night Live"
Will Win: Kristin Wiig
Should Win: Melissa Leo
BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES
"American Horror Story: Asylum"
"Behind the Candelabra"
"Top of the Lake"
Will and Should Win: Behind the Candelabra
BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch, "Parade's End"
Matt Damon, "Behind the Candelabra"
Michael Douglas, "Behind the Candelabra"
Toby Jones, "The Girl"
Al Pacino, "Phil Spector"
Will Win: Michael Douglas
Should Win: Matt Damon
BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTRESS
Jessica Lange, "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Laura Linney, "The Big C: Hereafter"
Helen Mirren, "Phil Spector"
Elisabeth Moss, "Top of the Lake"
Sigourney Weaver, "Political Animals"
Will and Should Win: Elisabeth Moss
BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTOR
Scott Bakula, "Behind the Candelabra"
James Cromwell, "American Horror Story: Asylum"
John Benjamin Hickey, "The Big C: Hereafter"
Peter Mullan, "Top of the Lake"
Zachary Quinto, "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Will Win: Zachary Quinto
Should Win: Peter Mullan
BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ellen Burstyn, "Political Animals"
Sarah Paulson, "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Charlotte Rampling, "Restless"
Imelda Staunton, "The Girl"
Alfre Woodard, "Steel Magnolias"
Will and Should Win Sarah Paulson