Sunday, September 23, 2012

Emmy Week 2012: Emmy Predictions, What Will/Should Win

Outstanding Drama Series

Breaking Bad
Boardwalk Empire 
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Mad Men

Mad Men has won this award four years running, and if they won tonight they would make history in two ways, the would be the series with the most wins, and the series to do this without any acting winners (unless someone breaks that curse tonight).  Everyone loves Breaking Bad, but is this show too dark to recognized? Possibly.  The real threat to Mad Men's thrown is Downton Abbey, there is the pedigree there that gives this show a great shot.  Tough pick, things are up in the air, but I going out on a ledge and picking Downton Abbey.

Prediction: Downton Abbey
Spoiler(s): Mad Men or Breaking Bad
Should Win: Homeland

Outstanding Comedy Series

The Big Bang Theory
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Modern Family
30 Rock 

This race is a no brainer, Modern Family is the surest bet on Emmy night, look for this threepeat to be one of the only predictable things tonight.

Prediction: Modern Family
Should Win: Girls

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series 
Hugh Bonneville-Downton Abbey
Steve Buscemi-Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston-Breaking Bad 
Michael C. Hall-Dexter
John Hamm-Mad Men
Damien Lewis-Homeland

At first glance this looks like cake walk for Bryan Cranston to pick up a record fourth win in this category.  Last year's winner Kyle Chandler was a surprise, do not count that out, which would favor Lewis, Hamm or even Buscemi who shockingly lost last year.  The problem with this category is that voters love Cranston here, and they check off their ballots.  This category like Lead Actor in a Comedy series love repeats, and I think history will repeat itself.

Prediction: Bryan Cranston
Spoiler: Steve Buscemi
Should Win: Damien Lewis

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin-30 Rock
Don Cheedle-House of Lies 
Jon Cryer-Two and a Half Men
Larry David-Curb Your Enthusiasm
Louis C.K.-Louie
Jim Parsons-The Big Bang Theory 

Are either of the two surliest men C.K. or David going to win?  My guess is that of these two is that Louis C.K. has the bigger chance.  My heart says C.K. wins, but my gut says Parsons wins again, or that Cryer could come out of nowhere again (Kathy Bates did win in the Guest Actress category.)

Prediction: Jim Parsons
Spoiler-Louis C.K
Should Win-Louis C.K.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Kathy Bates-Harry's Law
Glenn Close-Damages
Claire Danes-Homeland
Michelle Dockery-Downton Abbey
Julianna Marguilles-The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss-Mad Men

Claire Danes like Modern Family is the next best thing to a lock; she is beloved by voters, a former winners, and the show is a favorite.  The only spoiler is Kathy Bates who picked up her first win in the Guest Actress category.

Prediction/Should Win-Claire Danes
Spoiler-Kathy Bates

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Zoey Deschanel-The New Girl
Lena Dunham-Girls
Edie Falco-Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey-30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep
Melissa McCarthy-Mike and Molly
Amy Poehler-Parks and Recreation

One of the toughest categories to predict, and I feel and though I should just throw a dart at a board, my gut says Dreyfus will win her second in this category, and her show is a nominee in the Outstanding Comedy Series.  I am going to stick with my gut, rather than over think this category.

Prediction/Should Win-Julia Louis Dreyfus
Spoiler: Anyone!!

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama-Giancarlo Esposito-Breaking Bad
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy-Ty Burrell-Modern Family
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama-Joanne Frogatt-Downton Abbey
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy-Julie Bowen-Modern Family

Outstanding Writing in a Drama Seres-Downton Abbey-Episode 7
Outstanding Writing in a comedy Series-Girls-Pilot
Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series-Homeland-Pilot
Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series-Louie-Duckling

Movie/Mini Series-Hattfields & McCoys
Lead Actor in a Movie/Mini-Series-Kevin Costner-Hattfields & McCoys
Lead Actress in a Mini-Series/Movie-Julianne Moore-Game Change
Supporting Actor in a Movie/Mini-Series-Ed Harris-Game Change
Supporting Actress in a Movie/Mini-Series-Jessica Lange-American Horror Story

Outstanding Reality Series-The Amazing Race
Outstanding Reality Host-Betty White
Outstanding Variety Series-The Daily Show

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