Predicting the Tony Awards! Not Many Sure Bets

Tonight Neil Patrick Harris is back as the host of the Tony Awards, with an opening number from The Book of Mormon, and lots of live performances from this years new musicals and revivals.  The Tony's always put on the best show, and tonight with NPH in toe I think it will be a fun year.  The other reason the show will be great is because unlike most years the award categories are more unpredictable than ever.

Best Musical
Leap of Faith 
Newsies 
Nice Work if you can Get it
Once 

This is the battle of two former movies, Newsies vs. Once.  Both have a great shot at winning.  Newsies is more likely to be a bigger commercial success while Once is the most nominated show of the night (11 nominations).  This reminds of the race between Wicked and Avenue Q, and the smaller show came out on top.  Newsies does not need to win here to make commercial success it has the shows name.  I think Once has more passionate support as well, and squeak out a win.

Prediction: Once
Very Close Second: Newsies

Best Play
Clybourne Park
Other Dessert Cities
Peter and the Starcatcher
Venus in Fur

From what I have heard every one of these plays has its ardent fan base.  Venus looks to be the biggest long shot, while many like it its a long shot. Peter the prequel to Peter Pan could be a massive spoiler, but the main race is between the other two plays.  While Other Dessert Cities has a strong chance, my money is on Clybourne Park a satire about race relations, and 2011 winner of the Pulitzer prize for drama.

Prediction: Clybourne Park
Very Close Second: Other Dessert Cities
Spoiler: Peter and the Starcatcher

Best Musical Revival
Evita
Follies
The Gershwins Porgy and Bess
Jesus Christ Superstar

Another two way horse race, this time between Follies and and Porgy and Bess.  Follies did not win during its original run, nor during its abysmal revival in the early 2000s, but this show had great reviews and was one of the best reviewed shows of the season.  While Porgy and Bess has a shot this is one place it seems Follies will clean up its much deserved trophy of the evening.

Predictions: Follies
Second in Line: Porgy and Bess

Best Revival of a Play 
Death of a Salesman
Gore Vidal's The Best Man 
Master Class
Wit

This is one of the sure bets of the evening, the Mike Nichols helmed versions is poised to take this honor with ease.

Best Actor in a Musical
Danny Burstein-Follies
Jeremy Jordan-Newsies
Steve Kazee-Once
Norm Lewis-The Gershins Porgy and Bess
Ron Raines-Follies

Raines and Lewis should be honored for their nominations.  This is a tight race between the three other men.  Kazee has a shot being in a best musical nominee, but the other two men in this race are the ones to watch.  Jordan was in two shows and this would be a chance for Tony to honor a new young upcoming talent.  Meanwhile Danny is a Broadway Baby with three previous nominations and no wins.  This is a tight race.

Will Win: Jeremy Jordan-Newsies
Very Very Close Second-Danny Burstein
Spoiler Steve Kazee

Best Actor in a Play
James Corden-One Man Two Guvners
Phillip Seymour Hoffman-Death of a Salesman
James Earl Jones-The Best Man
Frank Langella-Man and Boy
John Lithgow-The Columnist

Cordern has a small chance to spoiler, but like in the Best Play category Hoffman moved audiences to tears and reminds the Tony people about the struggles of the working man.  Hoffman is one step closer to that elusice EGOT.

Prediction:Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Spoiler: James Corden

Best Actress in a Musical
Jan Maxwell-Follies
Audra McDonald-The Gershwins Porgy and Bess
Cristin Millioti-Once
Kelli O'Hara-Nice work if you can get it
Laura Osnes-Bonnie and Clyde

McDonald is on her way to becoming part of an elusive club, the 5 winner club, and at a young age this is an incredible feat.  The only spoiler in my mind is Jan Maxwell from Follies who was the best in my book.

Prediction: Audra McDonald
Spoiler: Jan Maxwell

Best Actress in a Play
Nina Arianda-Venus in Fur
Tracie Bennett-End of the Rainbow
Stockard Channing-Other Dessert Cities
Linda Lavin-The Other Lyons
Cynthia Nixon-Wit

Nixon who won this award a few years and she is the one already out of the race while the other four women battle out for the prize.  Logic says Bennett is the winner for her portrayal as Judy Garland just seems bound for glory, but my gut has told me that Arianda has such an ardent fan base, and that she is the hip pick.  Channing and Lavin still have a shot and are spoilers.

Predicition: Nina Arianda
Very Close Second: Tracie Bennett
Spoiler Linda Lavin and Stockard Channing

Other categories
Best Featured Actor in a Play-Christian Borle-Peter and the Starcatcher
Best Featured Actress in a Play-Judith Light-Other Dessert Cities
Best Featured Actor in a Musical-David Allan Grier-The Gershwins Porgy and Bess
Best Featured Actress in a Musical-Judy Kaye-Nice work if you can get it
Best Director (Play)-Mike Nichols-Death of a Salesman
Best Director (Musical)-Jeff Calhoun-Newsies
Best Musical Book-Once
Best Musical Score-Newsies
Best Choreography-Newsies