Monday, December 12, 2011

Screen Actors Guild Award Predictions: Updated with Nominees and My Score

This Wednesday the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) will be announcing their nominees.  SAG has 13 awards telecast, and they honor someone with a lifetime achievement award.  This year SAG will be honoring television and film star Mary Tyler Moore.  The thing I respect about this organization is that they honor people who have done a lot in not just film, but whose careers have included a wide array of both film and television.  The most recent winners were Ernest Borgnine, Betty White, James Garner-all of whom had a lot of roles in film and television.  I am happy for Mary Tyler Moore; she is a treasure, her role in Ordinary People still haunts me.  Here are my predictions for this years nominees.

Film Awards 

Outstanding Performance by the Cast of a Motion Picture
The Artist 
The Help
The Descendants 
Midnight in Paris 
Close Calls: Hugo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Margin Call

With them announcing earlier than the Globes this year this may be trickier.  Four of these five films have impressive casts, with big stars.  I think Bridesmaids will get in because of the sheer fact that many television actors will support their friends while voting (I could be wrong). 5 for 5: This was an easier category to predict.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

George Clooney-The Descendants
Jean Dujardan-The Artist

Michael Fassbender-Shame (Leonardo DiCaprio-J. Edgar)
Gary Oldman-Tinkor Tailor Soldier Spy (Damien Bichir-A Better Life)
Brad Pitt-Moneyball

I am pretty sure I have three right, this is a crowded category with lots of great roles.  I would like to see Michael Shannon up there.  I think Shannon will get the Oscar nod, they way he did for Revolutionary Road.  3 for 5: The lead actor category has three locks: Clooney, Pitt and Dujardan.  DiCaprio looks stronger than people assume.  Demian Bichir came out of nowhere!  I have a feeling the Oscars will keep Leo, and replace Bichir with Michael Shannon.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role 
Glen Close-Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis-The Help
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin 
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn

Streep, Williams, and Davis are locks.  The next two spots are anyone's guess at this moment.  I went with Theron and Close.  Theron is well liked, a past winner and nominee. Update-I think Close is out! Olsen is in! 5 for 5-This could be the five nominees.  I am still not sold on Close.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh-My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks-Drive (Nick Nolte-Warrior)
Ben Kingsley-Hugo (Armie Hammer-J. Edgar)
Christopher Plummer-Beginners 
Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Jonah Hill-Moneyball)

The category of veterans.  I am unsure Von Sydow and Kinsley, but I think the other three are locks.  I do not think the SAG will go for Tree of Life but I could also see Pitt as a double nominee; he is the dark horse.  The Margin Call men Spacey and Irons could sneak in here as well. 2 for 5: This category is a mess!!!!! They snubbed Brooks.  Nick Nolte is looking stronger and stronger.  I do not think Hammer of Hill will make it to the Oscars.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role 
Bernice Bejo-The Artist
Jessica Chastain-The Help 
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer-The Help
Shaileen Woodley-The Descendants (Janet McTeer-Albert Nobbs)

Chastain should get in her, and I think she will get in for The Help, not any of her other films.  Woodley will most likely ride The Descendants train, but she is weak come Oscar time. 4 out 5: Woodley is done; she is not going to be taken seriously.  McTeer made it in here for Albert Nobbs.  Vanessa Redgrave is out too.

I predicted 19 out of 25.  The supporting actor category messed me, and I think it will be an interesting category to see who they nominate, but it looks as though they have Plummer poised to win the award.  I think lead actor is going to be Pitt's to lose.

Television Awards

Let me just say the TV side kept things VERY boring and they are the laziest voters I have ever seen!  They did not honor many new nominees.  I have to yawn here!

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Drama Series 
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
Homeland (Dexter)-They honored the tired old show they always honor from Showtime

4 out of 5

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series 
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Kyle Chandler-Friday Night Lights
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (Patrick J. Adams-Suits)-Never even heard of this show to be honest
Michael C. Hall, Dexter

4 out 5

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series 
Connie Britton-Friday Night Lights (Jessica Lange-American Horror Story)
Margo Martindale-Justified (Kathy Bates-Harry's Law)
Claire Danes, Homeland (Glen Close-Damages)
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Kelly McDonald-Boardwalk Empire (Kyra Sedgwick-The Closer)

1 out 5 (weak)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Comedy Series 
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation (The Office) They stuck with this, not one of the best ensembles anymore.
30 Rock

4 out of 5 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series 
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Steve Carell, The Office
Ed O'Neill, Modern Family (Jon Cryer-Two and a Half Men)-A prize for dealing with Sheen
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (Eric Stonestreet-Modern Family)

3 out of 5 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series 
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly (Betty White-Hot in Cleveland)
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (Edie Falco-Nurse Jackie)
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

3 out of 5

19 out of 30....I expected better of these voters in these categories, but it appears big names matter more.

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