Broadcast Film Critics Awards Nomination Predictions:Updated

In my haste, I forget that the Broadcast Film Critics Awards (BFCA) nominations come out tomorrow.  This award has become a good predictor to not only nominees, but winners at the Academy Awards.  I have only predicted the major awards, but I think Hugo will lead the nominations tomorrow.  My prediction is that Hugo will lead the nominations with 12.


Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball
Midnight in Paris
The Tree of Life
War Horse


9 out of 10: I should have guessed Stephen Daldry's film, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, would start it's march to the Oscars.  Stephen Daldy has directed three other films Billy Elliot, The Hours, and The Reader; he was nominated for all three films, and The Hours and The Reader were Best Picture nominees.  Extremely Loud an replaced Harry Potter in my predictions.


Best Actor 
George Clooney-The Descendants
Jean Dujardin-The Artist 
Michael Fassbender-Shame
Gary Oldman-Tinkor Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt-Moneyball
Michael Shannon-Take Shelter


4 out of 6:  I was sure this critics group would honor great performances like Shannon and Oldman, but I was wrong.  They went with Leonardo DiCaprio and Ryan Gosling instead (for Driver) instead.  My prediction is that come Oscar time these two "pretty boys" will be replaced by Oldman or Shannon.


Best Actress
Glen Close-Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis-The Help
Meryl Streep-The Iron Lady 
Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin 
Charlize Theron-Young Adult
Michelle Williams-My Week with Marilyn


5 out 6: Wow, Close is done (in my opinion).  Without a nomination here I do not see her getting much traction.  I am glad Olsen got the nomination she is hauntingly great!


Best Supporting Actor 
Kenneth Branagh-My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks-Drive
Ben Kingsley-Hugo
Brad Pitt-The Tree of Life 
Christopher Plummer-Beginners
Max Von Sydow-Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close


3 out of 6: My worst category, partly because it's so crowded. Branagh, Brooks and Plummer are locks now.  The other three nominees were Nick Nolte (Warrior), Patton Oswalt (Young Adult) and Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes).  This category is going to be the hardest to predict, and I predict it will change by 2 or 3 people with every award show.


Best Supporting Actress
Bernice Bejo-The Artist
Jessica Chastain-The Tree of Life
Melissa McCarthy-Bridesmaids
Vanessa Redgrave-Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer-The Help
Shaileen Woodley-The Descendants 


4.5 out 6:  I deducted half a point because they honored Chastain for The Help instead of Tree of Life.  I think The Help is her weakest and most unlikable performance (I would change that if I were her), but I think this guarantees her nomination.  Redgrave may not be a safe bet, she was replaced by Carey Mulligan for Shame.


Best Director
Woody Allen-Midnight in Paris
Michael Hazanavicius-The Artist 
Terrence Malick-The Tree of Life
Alexander Payne-The Descendants
Nicholas Winding Refn-Drive
Martin Scorsese-Hugo


4 out of 6: Picking Tree of Life and not Malick is like a kick in the pants, the same goes for Midnight in Paris. BFCA went with two boring choices Daldry for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and Steven Spielberg for War Horse.


Best Adapted Screenplay
The Descendants
Drive
Hugo
Moneyball
Tinkor Tailor Soldier Spy
War Horse 


3 out 5:  Shockingly they did not go for War Horse in this category.  The two films I missed were of course Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and The Help.


Best Original Screenplay
50/50
The Artist 
Beginners
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris 
The Tree of Life 


3 out of 5:  I changed my mind at the last minute!  I was going to pick Young Adult, but put Bridemaids instead.  I was wrong.  I am glad they honored Win Win too, surprised at no Beginners.


Best Ensemble
Carnage
Bridesmaids
The Descendants 
The Help
Hugo
Margin Call 


3 out 5: Something tells me Margin Call is going to be a forgotten film.  How do you not honor the ensemble.  They went with The Artist and The Ides of March (which got only this one nomination).


I was right Hugo was one of of the most nominated films, it received 11 nominations (I was only off by 1).  The Artist also received 11. I got 35.5 out 50.  Not bad for one of the first award shows of the year.


Here is the actual list of nominations 

BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Drive
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – “The Descendants”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “J. Edgar”
Jean Dujardin – “The Artist”
Michael Fassbender – “Shame”
Ryan Gosling – “Drive”
Brad Pitt – “Moneyball”

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis – “The Help”
Elizabeth Olsen – “Martha Marcy May Marlene”
Meryl Streep – “The Iron Lady”
Tilda Swinton – “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
Charlize Theron – “Young Adult”
Michelle Williams – “My Week With Marilyn”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh – “My Week With Marilyn”
Albert Brooks – “Drive”
Nick Nolte – “Warrior”
Patton Oswalt – “Young Adult”
Christopher Plummer – “Beginners”
Andrew Serkis – “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo – “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain – “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy – “Bridesmaids”
Carey Mulligan – “Shame”
Octavia Spencer – “The Help”
Shailene Woodley – “The Descendants”

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Asa Butterfield – “Hugo”
Elle Fanning – “Super 8”
Thomas Horn – “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
Ezra Miller – “We Need to Talk About Kevin”
Saoirse Ronan – “Hanna”
Shailene Woodley – “The Descendants”

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
The Artist
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March

BEST DIRECTOR
Stephen Daldry – “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
Michel Hazanavicius – “The Artist”
Alexander Payne – “The Descendants”
Nicolas Winding Refn – “Drive”
Martin Scorsese – “Hugo”
Steven Spielberg – “War Horse”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“The Artist” – Michel Hazanavicius
“50/50” – Will Reiser
“Midnight in Paris” – Woody Allen
“Win Win” – Screenplay by Tom McCarthy, Story by Tom McCarthy & Joe Tiboni
“Young Adult” – Diablo Cody

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“The Descendants” – Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close” – Eric Roth
“The Help” – Tate Taylor
“Hugo” – John Logan
“Moneyball” – Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, Story by Stan Chervin

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“The Artist” – Guillaume Schiffman
“Drive” – Newton Thomas Sigel
“Hugo” – Robert Richardson
“The Tree of Life” – Emmanuel Lubezki
“War Horse” – Janusz Kaminski

BEST ART DIRECTION
“The Artist” – Production Designer: Laurence Bennett, Art Director: Gregory S. Hooper
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2” – Production Designer: Stuart Craig, Set Decorator: Stephenie McMillan
“Hugo” – Production Designer: Dante Ferretti, Set Decorator: Francesca Lo Schiavo
“The Tree of Life” – Production Designer: Jack Fisk, Art Director: David Crank
“War Horse” – Production Designer: Rick Carter, Set Decorator: Lee Sandales

BEST EDITING
“The Artist” – Michel Hazanavicius and Anne-Sophie Bion
“Drive” – Matthew Newman
“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” – Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
“Hugo” – Thelma Schoonmaker
“War Horse” – Michael Kahn

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“The Artist” – Mark Bridges
“The Help” – Sharen Davis
“Hugo” – Sandy Powell
“Jane Eyre” – Michael O’Connor
“My Week With Marilyn” – Jill Taylor

BEST MAKEUP
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady
J. Edgar
My Week With Marilyn

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
The Tree of Life

BEST SOUND
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Super 8
The Tree of Life
War Horse

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Kung Fu Panda 2
Puss in Boots
Rango

BEST ACTION MOVIE
Drive
Fast Five
Hanna
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8

BEST COMEDY
Bridesmaids
Crazy, Stupid, Love
Horrible Bosses
Midnight in Paris
The Muppets

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
In Darkness
Le Havre
A Separation
The Skin I Live In
Where Do We Go Now

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Buck
Cave of Forgotten Dreams
George Harrison: Living in the Material World
Page One: Inside the New York Times
Project Nim
Undefeated

BEST SONG
“Hello Hello” – performed by Elton John and Lady Gaga/written by Elton John and Bernie Taupin – Gnomeo & Juliet
“Life’s a Happy Song” – performed by Jason Segel, Amy Adams and Walter/written by Bret McKenzie – The Muppets
“The Living Proof” – performed by Mary J. Blige/written by Mary J. Blige, Thomas Newman and Harvey Mason, Jr. – The Help
“Man or Muppet” – performed by Jason Segel and Walter/written by Bret McKenzie – The Muppets
“Pictures in My Head” – performed by Kermit and the Muppets/written by Jeannie Lurie, Aris Archontis and Chen Neeman – The Muppets

BEST SCORE
“The Artist” – Ludovic Bource
“Drive” – Cliff Martinez
“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” – Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
“Hugo” – Howard Shore
“War Horse” – John Williams