Saturday, September 17, 2011

My Emmy Winner Predictions

Tomorrow at 8 pm in the Nokia Theatre Jane Lynch will take the stage as the host of the 64th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards, and here is my list of predictions for tomorrow:

Outstanding Comedy Series

Modern Family

The years most nominated comedy series will repeat as this years winner.  No other shows mounts much of challenge.  Glee or Parks and Recreation have the closest shot, but are off in the distance.  The Big Bang Theory is the highest rated show and got more nominations than ever, but still lacks writing and directing nomination.  NBCs The Office and 30 Rock had their time and are done.

Outstanding Drama Series

Boardwalk Empire

I know many people have stated that Mad Men will repeat for a fourth year (it has the most nominations) but Boardwalk Empire is that new kid on the street, and will win for its first year. The Good Wife had the same number of nominations, but has a lot of support with numerous acting nominations. Dexter, Friday Night Lights, Game of Thrones are either too dark, just happy to be at the show, or just don't have a broad appeal.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Steve Carell-The Office

This is finally the year!  Carell will win for his last and final season.  Jim Parsons could repeat and spoil, but I think his win was a one hit wonder.  Alec Baldwin is out of the game as is Matt LeBlanc and Johnny Galecki whose nominations were the reward.  Louis CK could potentially spoil only if the Emmys decide to be hip like when they honored Ricky Gervais for Extras.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

John Hamm-Mad Men

This is finally the year of Don Draper!  Hamm is the most sympathetic in his episode "The Suitcase" and is brilliant in this episode.  Buscemi is a VERY close second, he won all the other awards, but that has proven not to matter, especially in this category, for example other other nominees, Michael C. Hall and Hugh Laurie have won other accolades but not this award (and they have no shot this year).  Kyle Chandler was lucky to be invited.  Timothy Olyphant is third in this race, and if they love his show could honor him as well.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Laura Linney-The Big C

Linney's episode is great and she is great in it!  I think the Emmys will continue their trend of awarding the ladies of Showtime.  Poehler is in second and if they were basing this award on pure laughs she would win.  Last years winner Edie Falco is out, as is the previous winner Tina Fey.  First time nominees Melissa McCarthy and Martha Plimpton (in this category) could be spoilers because they are well liked, but these are only major nominations for their show, and the nomination is the reward.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Julianna Marguilles-The Good Wife

This a tough category for me to predict.  This race is between Elisabeth Moss and Julianna Marguilles.  I think Marguilles has the edge her tape is amazing.  Moss is so close she is nipping on her heels.  Hargitay had her time, Connie Britton is spectacular, but this is her goodbye gift, and Mireille Enos is strong, but not the best part of her show.  The real spoiler is Kathy Bates for Harry's Law; she is in a David E. Kelley show and they reward his actors frequently, she is also a past Oscar winner (Glen Close and Sally Field most recently)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Ty Burrell-Modern Family

Another close race.  This is between Ty Burrell and Ed O'Neil with Chris Colfer as a spoiler.  Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Eric Stonestreet, and Jon Cryer are not in this race this year.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

John Slattery-Mad Men

This is the year Mad Men wins for acting!  Slattery has his best tape, and is the most like able he has ever been like Hamm.  Look out for both of the The Good Wife men, Alan Cumming and Josh Charles they are solid.  Braugher is out, and so is Peter Dinklage.  Goggins is great (and is finally honored with a nomination) but his tape didn't get hi the trophy.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Jane Lynch-Glee

This award will either go to Lynch or Betty White (Julie Bowen as the spoiler).  Lynch's tape is great, but she did not have much great material this year.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Margo Martindale-Justified

Martindale is brilliant in this show, she submitted well, and has been a hard working character actress for years, I think this is hers for the taking.

Other Winners:

Directing in a Comedy Serie: Modern Family-Halloween-Michael Allan Spiller
Directing in a Drama Series:Boardwalk Empire-Pilot-Martin Scorsese
Writing in a Comedy Series:Modern Family-Caught in the Act-Steve Levitan, and Jeffrey Richman
Writing in a Drama Series:Mad Men-The Suitcase-Matthew Weiner

Miniseries/Movie: Mildred Pierce
Actor in a Miniseries or Movie: Edgar Ramirez-Carlos
Actress in a Miniseries or Movie: Kate Winslet-Mildred Pierce
Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie: Tom Wilkinson-The Kennedys
Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie: Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey
Directing Miniseries/Movie: Toddy Haynes-Mildred Pierce
Writing Miniseries/Movie-Todd Haynes-Mildred Pierce

Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Series: The Daily Show
Outstanding Directing in a Variety, Music or Comedy Series: Saturday Night Live
Outstanding Variety, Music or Comedy Series: The Daily Show

Outstanding Reality Competition Program: Top Chef

No comments: