Sunday, January 29, 2012

Screen Actor's Guild Awards Predictions


Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Artist 
The Descendants
The Help 
Midnight in Paris

Each film has a great ensemble, but this is between The Help and The Artist (weakest nominee going on the point of the award).  The Help should win, but The Artist is on a role with award shows, it has the Globe, the PGA, and the DGA.  I think The Help will still win this, and prove that everyone is not a mindless drone, but The Artist is right on its heels.  The dark dark horse could be Bridesmaids, but a film like that has not won since The Birdcage, when SAG meant less than it does now.

Prediction: The Help
Very Close Second: The Artist
Spoiler: Bridesmaids

Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Leading Role
George Clooney, The Descendants
Demian Bichir, A Better Life
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Will Clooney win a second Oscar in the acting categories?  I would have thought his second would come in directing or writing, but it could happen here.  Clooney is solid in this film , but was much better in Up in the Air.  Many people think he will not win, and The Artist will bring Dujardin along for the ride.  I think he has a shot, but my gut is going with my spoiler Brad Pitt.  If Clooney wanted to I think he would help his friend out, and I think it's possible.

Prediction: George Clooney
Very Close Second: Jean Dujardin
Spoiler: Brad Pitt

Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Leading Role
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

I think Viola Davis is going to win and make this category far more interesting.  I could be way off base here.  Whoever wins tonight has the lead in this race.  I think SAG will go for Davis, but they could also stamp Streep as the winner.  I am doing more gut predicting here.  Williams is a spoiler, but I do think they will pick her, although it would go with the tradition of crowning a young pretty girl.

Prediction: Viola Davis
Very Close Second: Meryl Streep
Spoiler: Michelle Williams

Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Supporting Role
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

This is simply Plummer's to lose, I can't see anyone else winning.

Lock to Win: Plummer
If and only if he loses: Nick Nolte

Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Supporting Role
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

I think like Plummer Spencer has this award sewn up, but Melissa McCarthy could be a spoiler.  I doubt the spoiling will happen, but her performance is different amongst this group and she would have a lot of support with this group.

Prediction: Octavia Spencer
Spoiler: Melissa McCarthy

Outstanding Performance By An Ensemble In A Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife

TV is harder to predict, Dexter is out! That was was easy.  I do not think Game of Thrones has a chance.  This is between the remaining three.  This is Breaking Bad's first time here, and it has a strong chance.  Empire is the returning champ though and they are classic repeat offenders.  Yet then there is the great show The Good Wife which has an incredible ensemble.  This category may be the hardest to predict, but here it goes:

Prediction: Boardwalk Empire (repeat)
Very Close Second: Breaking Bad
Spoiler: The Good Wife

Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Drama Series
Patrick J. Adams, Suits
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire 
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
I had never really heard of Suits (to be honest) and Michael C. Hall is out.  I am glad Chandler is nominated, but I do not see him winning without the ensemble nominated.  I think this will go to Cranston, with Buscemi close behind.
Prediction: Bryan Cranston
Very Close Second: Steve Buscemi
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Drama Series
Kathy Bates, Harry’s Law
Glenn Close, Damages
Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
Julianna Margules, The Good Wife
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer
This race is between two women Lange and Marguilles.  If they vote on name alone then Lange wins, but my gut says its a Marguilles threepeat!
Prediction:  Julianna Marguilles
Very Close Second: Jessica Lange
Outstanding Performance By An Ensemble In A Comedy Series
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family
The Office
Prediction: Modern Family (no contest)

Outstanding Performance By A Male Actor In A Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Steve Carell, The Office
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Baldwin has not lost this award in many many years, but he will for the first time this year.  Carell could win for his send off, they can be sentimental.  I think one of the Modern Family guys will win, and my gut goes with Burrell.
Prediction: Ty Burrell
Second: Steve Carell
Spoiler: Eric Stonstreet
Outstanding Performance By A Female Actor In A Comedy Series
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Betty White, Hot In Cleveland
Tina Fey and Edie Falco are out.  That leaves the Modern Family gals and Ms. White.  White wins for reading the phone these days, but my gut goes they will pick a Modern Family gal, namely Vergara , they love over the top performances.
Prediction: Sofia Vergara
Very Close Second: Betty White
Spoiler: Julie Bowen

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