March Movies to See or Skip!

I have to admit I did not see a single film in February namely because there was not a single film (maybe except Warm Bodies, which seemed worth my time.  Die Hard was supposedly the worst in the franchise history, Identity Thief may be doing great at the box office, but the film just does not look funny.  There were a few glimmers of hope, but nothing special enough.

March unfortunately does not look much better, and some big hits look like they could be big misses. Could March be better, let's hope, anything has to be better than February. 

March 1st

Jack the Giant Slayer 

21 and Over

The Last Exorcism Part II

Stoker

Bryan Singer's Jack and the Giant Slayer has only a few reviews out there, and they are solid so far.  Not sure it's a film I am going to run out and see, but it may be pretty solid.  21 and Over looks like last years Project X a waste of time.  How many exorcism movies can their be? Too many!  Stoker looks creepy, but brilliant, one film which may not get enough attention this year.

March 8th 

Oz the Great and Powerful

This film reminds me of the Burton produced Alice in Wonderland, only from the mind another twisted (in mostly a good way) visionary Sam Raimi.  I love the cast, but this looks like it could take the Oz world into a bland direction, full of miscast folks i.e. James Franco.  

March 15th 

The Call 

The Incredible Burt Wonderstone

Ginger & Rosa

Does Halle Berry even try anymore?  The Call looks awful, and the only way she must get work is based on her looks.  Wonderstone looks weak, Jim Carrey has not had a good film in years.  Ginger & Rosa looks incredible, and I will make sure I get to see this film! Elle Fanning is much superior to her sister.

March 22nd

Olympus has Fallen

Admission

The Croods

The Sapphires

Red Dawn the Korean invasion of the White House, or Olympus has Fallen.  Nice to see Butler do an action film, that's his wheel house, same way it is for someone like Stallone.  This could Air Force One, or Air Farce One.  I love Tina Fey and Paul Rudd but Admission looks contrived  and Paul Weitz last great film was 10 years ago.  The Croods looks like one of those winter animated films I will skip but families will show up in droves.  The Sapphires got some good word or mouth and looks worth  checking out!

March 29th 

G.I. Joe Retaliation 

The Host

The Place Beyond the Pines 

Tyler Perry's Temptation

G.I. Joe tried once will adding Willis, and keeping Tatum save the franchise, financially probably.  The Hose is another crappy love story from Stephanie Meyer with aliens instead of vampires, gag me.  The Place Behind the Pines could be too melodramatic based on the preview, and the honor of movie that looks the worst goes to Tyler Perry's Temptation.

See: Ginger & Rosa, The Sapphires Olympus Has Fallen, Stoker

Skip: 21 and Over, The Call, The Incredible Burt Wonderstone, The Host, and Tyler Perry's Temptation

The Oscars Seth McFarlane Entertained, but the Show Dragged

Everyone was nervous about Seth, and while his opening number started a bit slow, and got off to a bumpy start I think he did a great job as the emcee.  I am going to steal a line from my friend Karl who said "it was the perfect perfect blend of class and crass." The opening bit with Shatner was great, MacFarlane knows how to to bring that hilariously awkward pop culture reference into the mix.  Watching Channing Tatum, and Charlize Theron was magnetic, then see Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Daniel Radcliffe soft shoe was fun as well.

Throughout the show Seth throughout some jokes with edge relating to Lincoln's death (too soon), a Chris Brown/Rihanna joke, and one of the best jokes introducing Christopher Plummer with a Sound of Music joke.  Although Christopher Plummer gets this award shows Grumpy Old Man Award! In contrast opening the show and getting Tommy Lee Jones to laugh was hilarious, maybe expected, but brilliant.

Music was the central focus of the show, and paying tribute to the role music plays in film, and while it was fun to see Catherine Zeta Jones lip sync, Jennifer Hudson steal the night, the Lis Miserables cast sing better than they did in the film (except Russell Crowe), Shirley Bassey's tribute to Bond with Goldfinger, Adele, and Norah Jones singing their perspective Best Song nominees, and Babs paying tribute to the great Marvin Hamlisch. Whew, I got tired just typing that.

I think it was a bit tacky not having all the Best Song nominees performed on the show, have them all performed or none of them, and my money is on none of them.  I love Babs, and Marvin Hamlisch but this post in memoriam was not needed.  While I love movie music this lacked focus.  Oh how can I forget the awkward closing number, just say good night, some of us on the east coast have work in the morning.

Along with songs with no pay, the tribute to the Bond was wasted, and fell flat.  It was cool to see the clips of the different films, but what was the point?  The marketing on this was off the charts, but they did not reunite the Bonds after Shirley Bassey's number.  Having Adele perform later and not be connected to this made no sense.  Damn you Pierce Brosnan for backing out of this!

With the winners/presenters/speeches let's look at this from a Good, Bad, Ugly Perspective

The Good 

Ang Lee winning director (although I would have preferred Zeitlin), but his win was better than one for Spielberg.  Lee's film was a technical marvel and his direction was great.

The speech from Innocente was the best of evening, celebrating art.

Lincoln winning more than just one award for Daniel Day Lewis (Production Design as well)

Silver Linings Playbook only winning one award, and Harvey could not buy them anymore, including a win for DeNiro.

Speeches from Daniel Day Lewis and Jennifer Lawrence were good!  DDL had me tearing up because he seemed really appreciative, then had me in stitches when he talked about his and Meryl's freaky Friday with Margaret Thatcher in Lincoln.  Even though J-Law tripped you could tell just appreciative she was and, it was sweet to wish Emanuelle Riva a Happy Birthday!

Ted and Mark Wahlberg were the only entertaining duo who presented, glad he only did his Ted schtick, loved this!

The Bad 

The Django wins, sorry Waltz is a lead, and that is Quentin's worst screenplay (even worse than Jackie Brown)

Anne Hathaway's speech (and outfit) while her win isn't the worst (although Field or Hunt deserved it more) she had all this time to practice, and prep, but she just never nailed it, and I still am not a huge fan.

Most of the presenters who tried to do something were mediocre, I guess at Oscar if you can't hack it just present

The Ugly 

Zero Dark Thirty winning only one award in the sound category when it was the best film of the year

Les Miserables winning 3 Oscars!

Beasts of the Southern Wild going home empty handed, criminal

In a year with so much upset potential these awards were incredibly predictable, and boring, I got 23 out of 26 right (only missing Production Design, the Sound tie, and Documentary Short)

Paul Rudd and Melissa McCarthy were beyond lame, they will not be hosting anytime soon.

The Cool 

Having Michelle Obama present Best Picture with Jack Nicholson, may be one of the oddest/coolest things I have ever seen.

Ben's sheer genuine appreciation while accepting Best Picture, Grant Heslov is in the not cool category, we realize Argo was directed by Affleck, the Academy knows!!

I did not place Argo's win into any categories, because I like and respect the film, but I am not sure it fits within any of these categories.  

Does the Independent Spirit Still Exist?

Last night the Weinstein Company film Silver Linings Playbook took home four prizes at the Independent Spirit Awards,  Best Picture, Best Director, Lead Actress, and Screenplay.  Now I don't know about you, but I would not define Silver Linings Playbook as an "independent film."  Silver Linings Playbook comes from a well established director,   The production budget for the film was also 21 million dollars.  21 million hardly screams low budget film.

The history of the trophy's symbolic nature proves this award show is a bit different, than the wins from last night.  The original trophy for the film was "presented with acrylic glass pyramids containing suspended shoestrings representing the paltry budgets of independent films. The trophy was modified in 2006 "depicting a bird sitting atop of a pole with the shoestrings from the previous design wrapped around the pole."  The goal of this award show was to honor small budget films, their directors, and the small films, which rarely got attention from either award shows or audiences.  The award catapulted many to much more famous careers. 21 million dollars is hardly a "shoe string budget."

Silver Linings competitor Beasts of the Southern Wild is the best example a film that mainstream audiences have seen, but still fits the category of being an independent film.  The budget for this film was very small, and a few sources I have seen cite it as 1.8 million dollars.  Making any film for this amount of money is next to impossible today.  First time film maker Benh Zeitlin used the "shoe string" mentality to weave the magic of this film, and Forbes magazine cites his model as one of the most innovative ways of putting a film together.

Does it matter that Beasts is Oscar nominee, no, it is one the small films which Oscar has started to embrace.  Over the year's the Independent Spirit Awards have matched up with many films which were Best Picture nominees at the Oscars.  At the bottom is a full list of ISA winners in Best Picture.  The is only one film which won at these awards and then won Best Picture at the Oscars, and thats The Artist.

Yet I have to think/hope/wonder shouldn't this group think independently?  Pick your own winners, do not try and line up with the Oscars.  The one category where this rang through last night was with Best Actor.  John Hawkes won for The Sessions, while competing against Oscar nominee Bradley Cooper.  I am tired of these award show honoring the true independent films in the "othered" categories like Beasts only winning in Cinematography, and films like Safety Not Guaranteed, Perks of Being a Wallflower, and Middle of Nowhere not making a bigger impact.  Those are the true independent films of the year.

Time for Film Independent, who puts on this award show to either own up to their Oscar correlation, and  get out of the tent in afternoon and be corporate.  Otherwise they should embrace the "spirit" of the film they are supposed to root for and be more independent minded.

Here is a list of the Best Feature Winners throughout the shows history
The Artist
Black Swan
Precious
The Wrestler
Juno
Little Miss Sunshine
Brokeback Mountain
Sideways
Lost in Translation
Far From Heaven
Memento
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Election
Gods and Monsters
The Apostle
Fargo
Leaving Las Vegas
Pulp Fiction
Short Cuts
The Player
Rambling Rose
The Grifters
Sex, Lies and Videotape
Stand and Deliver
River’s Edge
Platoon
After Hours

Academy Award Week 2013: The Conclusion, My Predictions

Best Picture 

Argo 

Amour

Beasts of the Southern Wild 

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi 

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

In past years Lincoln would have been the obvious choice, incredible pedigree, and film that feels important (director, screenwriter, composer etc).  Yet this year history is going to be made an a film without a director nomination is going to win for the fourth time in Academy history, and for the first time since 1989.  I think Argo winning is one of the biggest sure things of the night.  If a film was going to spoil, the only one with momentum is Silver Linings Playbook.

Will Win: Argo 

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Spoiler (If any): Silver Linings Playbook

Best Lead Actor 

Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln

Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook

Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix-The Master

Denzel Washington-Flight

I honestly do not have much to say about this category, DDL is the biggest lock for the win of the evening.

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln

Should: Daniel Day-Lewis or Joaquin Phoenix

Best Lead Actress

Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook

Emanuelle Riva-Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis-Beasts of the Southern Wild 

Naomi Watts-The Impossible 

Could be the hardest or one of the easiest categories to predict of the evening.  If you look at the precursor awards they are pretty evenly spread with one actress having the slight edge.  Jennifer Lawrence has the edge with SAG, and the Golden Globe.  SAG is the trump card.  Jessica Chastain won at BFCA, and the Golden Globes, and Emanuelle Riva won at BAFTA.  May the Odds be ever in Jennifer Lawrence favor!  Jennifer Lawrence seems like the safe bet, mainly because she has It girl status, great performance, and Harvey behind her.  Riva is the bigger spoiler, age and admiration for the film could help her.  I also think people are underestimating Chastain, and she has a real shot.  So who will win?  I am going to go with the predictable.

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook

Should Win and Spoiler: Emanuelle Riva-Amour

Spoiler: Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty

Best Supporting Actor 

Alan Arkin

Robert DeNiro-Silver Linings Playbook

Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln 

Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master 

Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained

Please Click Here to see analysis: http://eternalthoughtsofkevinsmind.blogspot.com/2013/02/academy-award-week-2013-best-supporting.html

Will Win: Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained

Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones 

Spoiler: Robert DeNiro-Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams-The Master

Sally Field-Lincoln

Anne Hathaway-Les Miserable

Helen Hunt-The Sessions

Jacki Weaver-Silver Linings Playbook

This win and the win from Daniel Day-Lewis are the biggest sure things of the night!

Will Win: Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables

Best Director

Michael Haneke-Amour

Ang Lee-Life of Pi

David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg-Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild

Please Click Here to See my Analysis http://eternalthoughtsofkevinsmind.blogspot.com/2013/02/academy-award-week-best-director-no.html

Will Win: Ang Lee-Life of Pi

Should Win: Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Souther Wild

Spoiler: David O. Russell

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Long ago it was thought Lincoln had a strong hold on this category, but turn out Lincoln may be running third here.  This is a race between Argo and Silver Linings Playbook.  I think Argo has this because it wont at the WGA, a major victory.  Silver Linings Playbook won this award at BAFTA though to so watch out!

Will Win: Argo 

Should Win: Lincoln

Spoiler: Silver Linings Playbook

Best Original Screenplay 

Amour

Django Unchained

Flight

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Please Click Here to see my Analysis: http://eternalthoughtsofkevinsmind.blogspot.com/2013/02/academy-award-week-2013-best-original.html

Will Win: Django Unchained

Should Win: Moonrise Kingdom

Spoiler: Amour 

The Rest....

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour

Best Animated Feature: Brave

Best Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Production Design: Anna Karenina 

Best Cinematography: Life of Pi 

Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina 

Best Film Editing: Argo

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling-Les Miserables

Best Original Score: Life of Pi

Original Song: Skyfall

Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi

Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi

Best Animated Short: Paperman

Best Documentary Short:  Open Heart

Best Live Action Short: Curfew 

First Annual Underrated Film Awards Winners (2012)

Most Underrated Technical Aspects of Film (Writing, Direction, Editing etc)

Jacqueline West's Costume Design for Argo

Reinhold Heil, Johnny Kilmek, and Tom Tykwer's Original Score for Cloud Atlas
Terrence Davies Direction for The Deep Blue Sea

The Visual Effects Team for The Impossible
Arthur Max's Production Design for Prometheus

Martin McDonagh's Screenplay for Seven Psychopaths 

The Winner is Arthur Max's Production Design for Prometheus

Most Underrated Performances of 2012

Emma Watson-The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Liam Nesson-The Grey

Edith Scob-Holy Motors

Michael Fassbender-Promethues

Seth Rogen-Take this Waltz

Rebel Wilson-Pitch Perfect

The Winner is Emma Watson-The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Most Underrated Films of 2012

21 Jump Street
The Cabin in the Woods

End of Watch 

Middle of Nowhere

The Perks of Being a Wallflower

Safety Not Guaranteed 

Seven Psychopaths 

The Winner is...Middle of Nowhere

Academy Award Week (2013) Best Original Screenplay

Typically the Original Screenplay category has a pretty clear, or there has been a lack of competitive scripts which could compete within this category.  This category tends to honor films based on the following categories

The Unique Wins

What are the unique wins?  In my mind these are somewhat anomalies, and while they may make sense  during the year or in hind sight, there is something truly unique about their wins.

2002-Talk to Her (Hable Con Ella)-Foreign films rarely get a win in major categories outside of Best Foreign Language Film in the "major" categories.  Pedro Almodovar had another nomination in Best Director, but the film was not nominated in the Foreign Language film category.  On the other hand you had 10 time nominee Gangs of New York, the popular Nia Vardalos for My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and a multiple nominee Far from Heaven.

2004-Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind-This could be seen as a consolation prize, but this was a two time nominee with only a nomination for this and Kate Winslet.  Sunshine was up against more typical films like The Aviator, Hotel Rwanda, The Incredibles, and even Vera Drake.  Sunshine's win was somewhat expected in the sense that the film was very respected, but the film does not fit the norm.

2008-Milk-This was not a consolation prize, Penn won Actor (although people may not have known this was going to happen), but rarely does a bio-pic on this level win within this category.

Best Picture Sweep 

The Best Picture and Original Screenplay have only lined up 15 times in Oscars history, which does not bode well for the winners in this category, unless you are a massive Oscar favorite in the Best Picture category.

2005-Crash-At the time of the ceremony I saw this win as a consolation prize, but this ended up going along with the sweep.  It was easy to predict this win, but this one of those rare times when it predicted Best Picture.

2009-The Hurt Locker-The Hurt Locker vs. Avatar in Best Picture, on awards night The Hurt Locker won more than was expected, and this was a surprise as well.  My thought and many other people predicted Inglorious Basterds would win this as a consolation prize.

2010-The King's Speech-Like Hurt Locker this was one of those wins that was fierce battle, and it's competition was Inception.  Speech was not qualified for the WGA, but won at the BFCA, and BAFTA.  With few wins Speech needed this the way Argo needs adapted screenplay to help amass more wins.

The Consolation Prize (I Have to Win Somewhere)

Statistically this is where most of the winners fit.  All of the films (except Almost Famous) were nominated for Best Picture, and a few other awards, but this was the only win, which made sense.

2000-Almost Famous was snubbed in the Best Picture category the Miramax machine's Chocolat.  Almost Famous only received four nominations, but was a respected film from from Jerry Maguire nominee Cameron Crowe; he won to give the film some attention.

2001-Gosford Park-Park had lots of stiff competition from Memento, and The Royal Tenenbaums, but Park was the most "Oscar bait" film.  Park made the most sense as a winner, and it was the only Best Picture nominee.

2003-Lost in Translation, 2006-Little Miss Sunshine, 2007-Juno-All three of these films fit within the quirky comedy category.  Translation had the Copola name, and was solid.  Sunshine and Juno had heart mixed with quirk, which could never be taken seriously anywhere else.  While Arkin won for Sunshine that was not expected at all.

2011-Midnight in Paris-Midnight in Paris was another great Woody film, which never had a shot at Best Picture, but was one of the most respected films of the year.

So who wins this year....And the Nominees Are....

Amour-Michael Haneke

Django Unchained-Quentin Tarantino

Flight-John Gatins

Moonrise Kingdom-Wes Anderson, and Roman Coppola

Zero Dark Thirty-Mark Boal

Moonrise Kingdom and Flight, only have one, and two nominations respectively, they are out.  This is one of the tougher races to predict.  Django has won the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and BFCA, which gives it the best odds.  Django has a lot of respect, but why the Academy would honor one of the weakest screenplays is beyond me.  Zero Dark Thirty won the WGA, but Django was ineligible.  The difference between 2009 and this year is that Django has the edge because in 2009 Hurt Locker won all the awards Django won.  Yet can Amour pull off that unique foreign language film win, it has five other nominations. At the moment my winner prediction is Django, but this may change.

Will Win: Django Unchained

Spoilers: Amour then Zero Dark Thirty

Academy Award Week (2013): Best Supporting Actor....Are you Sure you are in the Right Place?

Throughout the years of Academy Awards performances are placed in acting categories by studios, the options are clearly lead vs. supporting.  Over the years people have bemoaned category fraud, and this year there are two specific cases of that extreme category fraud, Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman in The Master.

Before I look at this year I am going to talk about this category, and category fraud over the years:

2010-Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech has an equal amount of screen time as lead contender and winner Colin Firth.

2008-Robert Downey Jr. was in most of the scenes in Tropic Thunder, but you could argue the "ensemble rule."  Phillip Seymour Hoffman was a central part in Doubt, and was by no means a supporting player.

2007-Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford was in more of the film than Brad Pitt how he was considered a lead is one of the biggest pieces of category fraud.

2005-Jake Gyllenhaal was a co-lead in Brokeback Mountain, the film was about both Ennis and Jack.

These are just a handful of the different elements of category fraud in the last few years, and while there are still several men who should be considered supporting, the true "supporting" players never seem to win.  One could argue that many of the past few winners Christian Bale in The Fighter, and Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men could be considered lead performances.

So why does this happen?  Studios want to pack on the number of nominations, would these men have beat out any of the leads to get a nomination? Probably not meaning films would potentially have less or no nominations meaning some films would have less consideration to be viewed.by less people, think The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. People often also have this notion that you need more acting nominations to be successful.  Think Brokeback Mountain, but for some reason the critics out there have not had the balls to correct this category placement.

Who are the men guilty of this category fraud crime, why the Weinstein Company's Christoph Waltz from Django Unchained, and Phillip Seymour Hoffman (once again) from The Master.  Both of these performances while not the center of their films are part of the central journey.

Django was obviously a story about Django (Jaime Foxx) and his bounty hunter companion Dr. King Shultz (Christoph Waltz), the two were in the majority of the film. At the earliest part of award season Waltz was placed in the Supporting Actor category.  On November 8th the website goldderby.com reported Waltz would be campaigned in the lead category instead.  After the lead race became crowded the Weinstein Company switched Waltz back to supporting. 

Hoffman was guilty of category fraud for another Weinstein film four years ago, and he is back.  This is a simple case of them wanting to get as many nominations for this smaller film as possible.  Like with Doubt all three central characters are nominated, and ironically both have Amy Adams, and Hoffman.  This is not a case for just the Weinstein's, Warner Brothers, Focus Features, FOX are also guilty of this fraud.  Let's focus on this year's nominees and who may win the top prize.

And the nominees are...

Alan Arkin-Argo

Robert DeNiro-Silver Linings Playbook

Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master

Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln

Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained

This may be one of the tougher races to predict.  Phillip Seymour Hoffman took the early lead winning at the BFCA; he also won many critics groups awards.  Waltz gained momentum with a win at the Golden Globes, and BAFTA.  In the middle of Waltz's wins Tommy Lee Jones won SAG.  I think the power of Harvey Weinstein will guide the winner here, and my prediction all along has been Waltz the lead performance that steals the show.  Many are citing that DeNiro has the heart behind his performance and he has not won in years so he has more on his side, but he has not won a single award prior to this.  Maybe a James Coburn type deal?  Jones sour puss could also take the stage if they decide to throw more at Lincoln, but I think Lincoln seems a bit forgotten.  My gut is to go with the lead in supporting actor clothing.

Will Win: Christoph Waltz

Spoilers: Robert DeNiro, and Tommy Lee Jones