Oscar Predictions (2013)-August is Never too Early

What will this year's Oscars look like?  Who will be the major players?  Does Harvey have the magic once again?  All of these are just a few of the questions people are asking now, but with the season getting underway, and heavy hitters like Fruitvale Station, Blue Jasmine, Nebraska, and Inside Llewyn Davis getting good press, there may be a lot of contenders already out there.  Here are my very very early August predictions.

Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Blue Jasmine 
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lee Daniel's The Butler
Nebraska

Best Director
Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
Joel and Ethan Coen-Inside Llewyn Davis
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Lee Daniels-Lee Daniel's The Butler 
David O. Russell- American Hustle

Best Actor 
Bruce Dern- Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor- 12 Years a Slave
Michael B. Jordan-Fruitvale Station
Robert Redford- All Is Lost
Forrest Whitaker-Lee Daniel's The Butler 

Best Actress 
Cate Blanchett- Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock-Gravity
Judi Dench- Philomena
Julia Roberts- August: Osage County
Kate Winslet-Labor Day

Best Supporting Actor 
Josh Brolin- Labor Day
Michael Fassbender- 12 Years a Slave
Harrison Ford-42
John Goodman-Inside Llewyn Davis
Tom Hanks- Saving Mr. Banks

Best Supporting Actress 
Amy Adams- American Hustle/Her
Sally Hawkins- Blue Jasmine
Octavia Spencer-Fruitvale Station
Meryl Streep- August: Osage County
Oprah Winfrey-Lee Daniel's The Butler

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Fruitvale Station
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska

Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
August: Osage County
Before Midnight
Foxcatcher
Labor Day

Does the Independent Spirit Still Exist?

Last night the Weinstein Company film Silver Linings Playbook took home four prizes at the Independent Spirit Awards,  Best Picture, Best Director, Lead Actress, and Screenplay.  Now I don't know about you, but I would not define Silver Linings Playbook as an "independent film."  Silver Linings Playbook comes from a well established director,   The production budget for the film was also 21 million dollars.  21 million hardly screams low budget film.

The history of the trophy's symbolic nature proves this award show is a bit different, than the wins from last night.  The original trophy for the film was "presented with acrylic glass pyramids containing suspended shoestrings representing the paltry budgets of independent films. The trophy was modified in 2006 "depicting a bird sitting atop of a pole with the shoestrings from the previous design wrapped around the pole."  The goal of this award show was to honor small budget films, their directors, and the small films, which rarely got attention from either award shows or audiences.  The award catapulted many to much more famous careers. 21 million dollars is hardly a "shoe string budget."

Silver Linings competitor Beasts of the Southern Wild is the best example a film that mainstream audiences have seen, but still fits the category of being an independent film.  The budget for this film was very small, and a few sources I have seen cite it as 1.8 million dollars.  Making any film for this amount of money is next to impossible today.  First time film maker Benh Zeitlin used the "shoe string" mentality to weave the magic of this film, and Forbes magazine cites his model as one of the most innovative ways of putting a film together.

Does it matter that Beasts is Oscar nominee, no, it is one the small films which Oscar has started to embrace.  Over the year's the Independent Spirit Awards have matched up with many films which were Best Picture nominees at the Oscars.  At the bottom is a full list of ISA winners in Best Picture.  The is only one film which won at these awards and then won Best Picture at the Oscars, and thats The Artist.

Yet I have to think/hope/wonder shouldn't this group think independently?  Pick your own winners, do not try and line up with the Oscars.  The one category where this rang through last night was with Best Actor.  John Hawkes won for The Sessions, while competing against Oscar nominee Bradley Cooper.  I am tired of these award show honoring the true independent films in the "othered" categories like Beasts only winning in Cinematography, and films like Safety Not Guaranteed, Perks of Being a Wallflower, and Middle of Nowhere not making a bigger impact.  Those are the true independent films of the year.

Time for Film Independent, who puts on this award show to either own up to their Oscar correlation, and  get out of the tent in afternoon and be corporate.  Otherwise they should embrace the "spirit" of the film they are supposed to root for and be more independent minded.

Here is a list of the Best Feature Winners throughout the shows history
The Artist
Black Swan
Precious
The Wrestler
Juno
Little Miss Sunshine
Brokeback Mountain
Sideways
Lost in Translation
Far From Heaven
Memento
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Election
Gods and Monsters
The Apostle
Fargo
Leaving Las Vegas
Pulp Fiction
Short Cuts
The Player
Rambling Rose
The Grifters
Sex, Lies and Videotape
Stand and Deliver
River’s Edge
Platoon
After Hours

Academy Award Week 2013: The Conclusion, My Predictions

Best Picture 

Argo 

Amour

Beasts of the Southern Wild 

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi 

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

In past years Lincoln would have been the obvious choice, incredible pedigree, and film that feels important (director, screenwriter, composer etc).  Yet this year history is going to be made an a film without a director nomination is going to win for the fourth time in Academy history, and for the first time since 1989.  I think Argo winning is one of the biggest sure things of the night.  If a film was going to spoil, the only one with momentum is Silver Linings Playbook.

Will Win: Argo 

Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

Spoiler (If any): Silver Linings Playbook

Best Lead Actor 

Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln

Bradley Cooper-Silver Linings Playbook

Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix-The Master

Denzel Washington-Flight

I honestly do not have much to say about this category, DDL is the biggest lock for the win of the evening.

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln

Should: Daniel Day-Lewis or Joaquin Phoenix

Best Lead Actress

Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook

Emanuelle Riva-Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis-Beasts of the Southern Wild 

Naomi Watts-The Impossible 

Could be the hardest or one of the easiest categories to predict of the evening.  If you look at the precursor awards they are pretty evenly spread with one actress having the slight edge.  Jennifer Lawrence has the edge with SAG, and the Golden Globe.  SAG is the trump card.  Jessica Chastain won at BFCA, and the Golden Globes, and Emanuelle Riva won at BAFTA.  May the Odds be ever in Jennifer Lawrence favor!  Jennifer Lawrence seems like the safe bet, mainly because she has It girl status, great performance, and Harvey behind her.  Riva is the bigger spoiler, age and admiration for the film could help her.  I also think people are underestimating Chastain, and she has a real shot.  So who will win?  I am going to go with the predictable.

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook

Should Win and Spoiler: Emanuelle Riva-Amour

Spoiler: Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty

Best Supporting Actor 

Alan Arkin

Robert DeNiro-Silver Linings Playbook

Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln 

Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master 

Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained

Please Click Here to see analysis: http://eternalthoughtsofkevinsmind.blogspot.com/2013/02/academy-award-week-2013-best-supporting.html

Will Win: Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained

Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones 

Spoiler: Robert DeNiro-Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams-The Master

Sally Field-Lincoln

Anne Hathaway-Les Miserable

Helen Hunt-The Sessions

Jacki Weaver-Silver Linings Playbook

This win and the win from Daniel Day-Lewis are the biggest sure things of the night!

Will Win: Anne Hathaway-Les Miserables

Best Director

Michael Haneke-Amour

Ang Lee-Life of Pi

David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook

Steven Spielberg-Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild

Please Click Here to See my Analysis http://eternalthoughtsofkevinsmind.blogspot.com/2013/02/academy-award-week-best-director-no.html

Will Win: Ang Lee-Life of Pi

Should Win: Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Souther Wild

Spoiler: David O. Russell

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Long ago it was thought Lincoln had a strong hold on this category, but turn out Lincoln may be running third here.  This is a race between Argo and Silver Linings Playbook.  I think Argo has this because it wont at the WGA, a major victory.  Silver Linings Playbook won this award at BAFTA though to so watch out!

Will Win: Argo 

Should Win: Lincoln

Spoiler: Silver Linings Playbook

Best Original Screenplay 

Amour

Django Unchained

Flight

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Please Click Here to see my Analysis: http://eternalthoughtsofkevinsmind.blogspot.com/2013/02/academy-award-week-2013-best-original.html

Will Win: Django Unchained

Should Win: Moonrise Kingdom

Spoiler: Amour 

The Rest....

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour

Best Animated Feature: Brave

Best Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Production Design: Anna Karenina 

Best Cinematography: Life of Pi 

Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina 

Best Film Editing: Argo

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling-Les Miserables

Best Original Score: Life of Pi

Original Song: Skyfall

Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi

Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi

Best Animated Short: Paperman

Best Documentary Short:  Open Heart

Best Live Action Short: Curfew 

The Oscar Race (so far) a Video Entry Part 1

The 84th Annual Academy Award Nominations: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly, Surprising, and Seeing into the Future

Today at 8:30 am EST/5:30 PST the Academy Award nominations were announced by Academy Award nominee from last year Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone) Tom Sherak the President of the Academy of Motion Picture Art and Sciences (AMPAS) or the Academy.

The Good

The Tree of Life and 3 nominations-Whether you love it, hate it, or well no matter what you feel, this film deserves respect.  While I myself stated it was a bit self indulgent for about 10 minutes, the film is still amazing.  Tree was largely ignored by many of the guilds, and the globes.  The only group who actually included it were the critics, way to go!  This was the best thing I saw this morning.

Hugo leading the nominations with 11-There is a lot of support for this film and it scored one more nomination than The Artist.  While I respect The Artist, I do not love it, it reminds me of The King's Speech last year (but better).  Scorsese took things in a different direction, and I am proud of his success.

Rooney Mara, Melissa McCarthy, Gary Oldman-These three names may not have been expected, sure they had some love from the Globes and SAG, but they were not locks.  Oldman did not have much of anything.  I have to say I love Mara's performance.  McCarthy is breath of fresh air, even with her leg up in the air.  These two woman could not be more different, and their performances are on completely different spectrum, but I am happy for them both.  Oldman stole Fassbender's spot, which is sad, but he is great in Tinker Tailor.

A Separation and Margin Call in the screenplay categories- The screenwriters know good work, and I glad they picked these films.  This year has not had the strongest screenplays.  The funny thing is that this year's original screenplays were much stronger than the adapted screenplays.

The Bad

No Dragon Score-The exclusion of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo from Best Picture and Director does not bother me.  While the film is solid I would not place it as of the 10 best films of the year.  The film had a lot of strong technical aspects like the cinematography and editing (which it was nominated for), but the score was ignored?  Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross provided one of the best scores of the year, and took home the trophy last year for The Social Network.  How did this fail?

No Swinton, or Fassbender-Swinton is amazing in We Need to Talk About Kevin, and her in over Close is something I would challenge.  While I have not seen Close's performance she looks wooden and unemotional.  Fassbender had four amazing roles this year, but his best work was in Shame.  These are two performances the Academy will be kicking themselves for not nominating in the future.

The Ugly

War Horse and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close-Proof that the new Academy Awards system is a joke!  Before I say anything I have to say I have to say these are the only two Best Picture winners I have not seen.  A friend of mine has seen both and told me War Horse is not bad, it is just one of the best films of the year, and Loud is just not good and overwrought.  I do not want to see Loud at all, I think the film looks manipulative. I am choosing the word manipulative because the film appears to try and control your emotional experience more than in any other film.   I will see these films at some point, and prove myself right.

Drive gets one nomination-Is this a joke?  The Academy has pulled some dumb things, but only giving Drive one nomination in Best Sound Editing, and even snubbing Albert Brooks for Max Von Sydow is a huge mistake.

Take Shelter gets nothing! This film was flawless and has my pick for Best Actor and Supporting Actress this year.  Michael Shannon should have received a nomination, and Jessica Chatain should have been nominated for this film instead.

The Surprising


The Help gets only 4 nominations-  I expected The Help to have 8 nominations.  The nominations I expected but it did not receive were in screenplay, song, editing, and costume design.  The Help has three acting nominations, and a nomination for Best Picture.  This proves that support of this film is waning.   The Help is tied with The Descendants, Midnight in Paris.

Damien Bichir and Max Von Sydow-Even though Bichir had a SAG nomination for Best Actor, I figured that was a fluke.  I am excited to see the film, it looked wonderful.  Von Sydow is a veteran and well respected but received no pre-cursor nominations, I was shocked to see his nomination.

Looking ahead with the nominations announced, and bypassing my own bias, what happens next?  Who wins, will there be any surprises?

Hugo and The Artist appear to have the most support.  If Martin Scorsese wins the DGA, then Hugo will be a real threat.  Hugo has the most nominations this year with 11, and statistically speaking the film with the most nominations wins Best Picture.  For example The King's Speech had the most last year, but this is not always the case.  Many films have won without this statistic like A Beautiful Mind, The Departed and even Slumdog Millionaire (in recent years).  The Artist has ten nominations, and with such strong support for two films there will bound to be smaller win totals for the actual Best Picture winner.  Right now the The Artist is out front.

In the acting categories I think Best Actor is between Clooney Dujardin and Brad Pitt is a spoiler.  The Screen Actor's Guild will clear up this race.  The unknown Bachir and Dujardin may cancel each other out.  It seems as though each of them has a decent base of support but neither of them will take down the Clooney.

I have been predicting Viola Davis to win Best Actress at the Screen Actor's Guild Awards.  The Help received the most nominations, and has a great deal of support.  Many people thought it would be a threat in the Best Picture race.  Today's nominations prove that to not be true.  Where does this leave Viola Davis.  I am putting Davis out ahead slightly; she is in a Best Picture nominee, but look for Streep to provide a lot of challenge.

Today's Best Picture nominations prove that this system is out of touch, and two weak nominees weigh down the fact that great things did happen.  I am not thrilled with this year's nominees, but here's to hoping the Academy picks wisely.