Oscar Roundup 2012: BAFTA, Blimey I Think They've Got it!?

Over the the many years of the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTA) there are two apparent facts, they line up for the most part with Oscar, but they also take care of their own.  What does that mean?  British films, directors, actors etc tend to make it in over the surefire Oscar nominee.  Looking down blow you will see how Oscar and BAFTA line-up in regards to Best Picture, which actors recieved nominations at BAFTA (not at the Oscars), and how this will impact this year's nominees at BAFTA, and the Academy Awards.

In the Best Film/Picture world, over the last 8 years BAFTA has done well.  2004 was  BAFTA's weakest year in recent memory they only matched 2/5, and was the only year without the the Best Picture winner nominated in a long time, which is truly an anomaly.  Of the BAFTA nominees that missed at Oscar time the three were some how affiliated with UK production, showing one of the trends with the way BAFTA and Oscar may not always align, and proving a little bias from the country of origin.  The same can be said with the acting categories.

 BAFTA                                                            Oscar 

The Aviator*	The Aviator
Finding Neverland	Finding Nverland
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind	Million Dollar Baby*
The Motorcycle Diaries	Ray
Vera Drake	Sideways

In 2005 BAFTA picked British film The Constant Gardener over the very American Steven Spielberg's Munich. In 2006 BAFTA went 4/5, picking the British film The Last King of Scotland, over Clint Eastwood's Letter's from Iwo Jima, this was also a sign that Dreamgirls was weaker than predicted. In 2007 (as seen below) BAFTA went 3/5, picking a German film, which had no shot at a Best Picture nomination, and American Gnagster, which was directed by the famed British director Ridley Scott.

 BAFTA                                                            Oscar 

Atonement*	Atonement
No Country for Old Men	No Country for Old Men*
There will be Blood	There will be Blood
American Gangster	Juno
The Lives of Others	Michael Clayton

In 2008, 2009, and 2010, with their five nominees predicted all of the Best Picture nominees.  Unlike the Academy their did not switch to the 10 picture system or the 5-10 picture system.  In 2011 BAFTA only predicted 3 Best Picture nominees, and like within years prior this was based on their tendency to award British or Foreign Language films. Last year's 2011 was the weakest year where the Academy had more than 5 nominees.  In the diagram below it shows that BAFTA only had 3 of the Academy's 9 nominees.  Tinker Tailor was a UK film, and well liked by their Academy, while Drive's nomination was just something proving they sometimes have better taste than us Yanks

BAFTA                                                                     Oscar 

The Help	The Help
The Descendants	The Descendants
The Artist*	The Artist*
Drive	Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy	The Tree of Life
	Midnight in Paris
	Moneyball
	War Horse
	Hugo

In the acting categories their are often many famous Brits who make the cut at BAFTA, but are left in the lurch come Oscar time.  Here is a list by category:

Best Actor in a Leading Role (6)

Ralph Fiennes-The Constant Gardener (2005)

Daniel Craig-Casino Royale (2006)

Richard Griffiths-The History Boys (2006)

Dev Patel-Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

Andy Serkis-Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll (2009)

Michael Fassbender-Shame (2011

Best Actress in a Leading Role (7)

Kate Winslet-Finding Neverland (2004)

Judi Dench-Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005)

Keira Knightly-Atonement (2007)

Kristin Scott Thomas-I've Loved You So Long (2008)

Kate Winslet-Revolutionary Road (2008)

Saoirse Ronan-The Lovely Bones (2009)

Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role (11)

Phil Davis-Vera Drake (2004)

James McAvoy-The Last King of Scotland (2006)

Leslie Phillips-Venus (2006)

Michael Sheen-The Queen (2006)

Brendan Gleeson-In Bruges (2008)

Christian McKay-Me and Orson Welles (2009)

Alfred Molina-An Education (2009)

Andrew Garfield-The Social Network (2010)

Peter Postlewaite-The Town (2010)

Jim Boradbent-The Iron Lady (2011)

Kenneth Brannaugh-My Week with Marilyn (2011)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role (16) 

Heather Craney-Vera Drake (2004)

Julie Christie-Finding Neverland (2004)

Brenda Blethyn-Pride and Prejudice (2005)

Toni Collette-Little Miss Sunshine (2006)-Aussie

Emily Blunt-The Devil Wears Prada (2006)

Frances de la Tour-The History Boys (2006)

Samantha Morton-Control (2007)

Kelly McDonald-No Country for Old Men (2007)

Frieda Pinto-Slumndog Millionaire (2008)

Tilda Swinton-Burn After Reading (2008)

Ann-Marie Duff-Nowhere Boy (2009)

Kristin Scott Thomas-Nowhere Boy (2009)

Miranda Richardson-Made in Dagenham (2010)

Lesley Manville-Another Year (2010)

Carey Mulligan-Drive (2011)

Judi Dench-My Week with Marilyn (2011)

Of the the BAFTA nominees over the last 8 years 40 of them have been Brits who have not gone on to be nominated at the Academy Awards.  This only counts the Brits who were not nominated, but about 1/4 of the BAFTA nominees over the last 8 years were not nominated at the Oscars giving nominees a 3/4 chance, which are pretty could odds.

So who gets nominated and how will this impact the Academy Awards?  Given the non-consistent statistics and the BAFTAs honoring their own states men and women so regularly look for a different list of nominees, which may or may not look like my predictions below.  I tried to use the the above stats to help guide my predictions, but this is a massive shot in the dark! Listed below are my predictions:

Best Film 

Argo 

Lincoln 

 Les Miserables

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

alt: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Daniel Craig-Skyfall

Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln

Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables

Anthony Hopkins-Hitchcock

Joaquin Phoenix-The Master

Alt: Ewen McGregor-The Impossible

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Marion Cotillard-Rust and Bone

Judi Dench-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Helen Mirren-Hitchcock

Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty

Naomi Watts-The Impossible

Alt: Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actor in a Supporting Role 

Alan Arkin-Argo

Javier Bardem-Skyfall

Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master

Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln

Eddie Redmayne-Les Miserables

Alt: Tom Wilkinson-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Judi Dench-Skyfall

Anne Hathway-Les Miserables 

Sally Field-Lincoln

Nicole Kidman-The Paperboy

Maggie Smith-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Alt: Samantha Barks-Les Miserables

Best Director 

Ben Affleck-Argo

Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty

Sam Mendes-Skyfall

Tom Hooper-Les Miserables

Steven Spielberg-Lincoln

Alt: John Madden-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Skyfall Brilliantly Explores the Vulnerabilities of James Bond and asks the Ever Important Question, is he Still Relevant?

Skyfall (4 out 5 Stars)

Directed by Sam Mendes (American Beauty, Revolutionary Road)

Written by Neal Purvis (Casino Royale), Robert Wade (Casino Royale). John Logan (Hugo)

Starring: Daniel Craig, Judi Dench, and Javier Bardem

Six years ago Daniel Craig took up the post after Pierce Brosnan's version of Bond.  Brosnan was like Connery; he was cool, and sexy.  Craig fit all of the standards, but took being Bond to a whole new level; he kicked ass like no other Bond before.  The question that has been on most Bond fans minds is why is Bond more like Jason Bourne than the Queen's number one spy?

The Bourne Identity and Die Another Day (the last Pierce Brosnan Bond film) were released the same year 2002.  Comparing the two films, the action, and the evolution of a post 9/11 action hero producers seem to go back to the drawing board with the Bond franchise.  The new Bond Daniel Craig was more rugged, and muscular, battling opponents with that hand to hand combat used in the Bourne franchise.  Bond is by no means copying the Bourne franchise, but changing things up, and continuing the make the character relevant in today's world.  Although the the new film address the the old fashioned MI-6, and an ever changing society.

Skyfall starts the way most of the recent Bond films do, with an incredible action sequence, that leads into the title sequence and theme song for a film.  At the beginning James and Eve (a field agent) are chasing two men who have stolen the hard drive with the identities of all the MI-6 agents. The bad guy gets away while Bond is knocked down for the count.  Bond has the opportunity to walk away, but when an attack MI-6 happens he enters back into the arena to do battle the ultimate bad guy trying to take down both M (Judi Dench) and MI-6.

Casino Royale was a game changer, and showed Bond as a human with emotions, through the loss of the woman he loved.  Quantum of Solace showed his need for revenge, although the film dropped the ball.  Skyfall looks challenges Bond's relevance, and gives audiences a window into his past even further.  The villain Silva (Javier Bardem) starts to make M, and her agency look bad.  Silva's plan involves humiliating M, and making her pay for her past crimes.  Along with paying for her past sins, the entire agencies relevancy is questioned by the government, and beaurocrat Gareth Mallory (Ralph Fiennes) helps M to try and maintain the agencies relevancy.

Screenwriters Neal Purvis and Robert Wade are no strangers to this franchise, this is their fifth film of the 23 Bond films.  They are joined by John Logan, and together these three men take you through the journey of Bond new and old.  Using the different characters, England, and exotic locations they have blended the focus of Bond well, and told a story that is action packed, compelling, and that leaves you questioning the evolution of society.

One of the brilliant aspects of this film is the sense of a world changing, but that this change is causing more chaos than good.  The post 9/11 world where the terrorist runs rampant, and is beyond the simple bald man stroking a cat, the villain has to be smoked out the old fashioned way.  How is the James Bond character relevant, or is he?  This franchise poses the question that was established in Casino Royale.  Bond has to become a new man, even though he may not be ready or even up to the challenges of the the people he will have to face.  Craig tackles this role better than ever in this film, not only showing that he can kick ass, but continuing to show the evolution the character started in this "reboot."

The challenge of the old guard vs. the new guard in the battle of Silva vs. M is another fascinating aspect of this story.  Bardem's Silva is clearly an old school evil genius, but with the twist of modern technology.  The villain is brilliantly constructed, and Bardem proves even playing a villain again is not the same old hat.  Bardem ass layers to this role even challenging the concept that Bond is purely a ladies man as he slowly unbuttons his shirt.

While Silva represents the new school M represents the old guard; she is the old fashioned gal who read poetry at the hearing when she should be running from the room in fear of Silva.  M stoic, and while the franchise has always had her waiting in the wings, or as the kidnapped she finally steps up to take on one of the most aspects of her job as a leader.  Dench is brilliant in this film, and has some truly heartbreaking moments.

Bond has always been seen as an interesting genre film throughout the years with a simple formula, but this chapter of the franchise has changed things for the better.  In this film director Sam Mendes and cinematographer Roger Deakins create imagery so gorgeous, you will get lost.  This is one of the best shot films of the year, from the simplest moments when James is trying to track down a spy in a Shanghai hotel, where the colors and music help build some of the greatest tension.  There are of course the action packed shots like the opening sequence where James battles it out on a moving train traveling through England.  These men have worked together twice (Revolutionary Road and Jarhead), but have achieved visual mastery in this Bond film.

Throughout this film Bond does not bag as many babes, he even flirts back with a guy.  Bond loses his ability  to be that put together gentleman we know him to be, but what a treat to get to watch this character unhinged, and try and find his place in today's society while being the best secret agent.  The story and direction tell audiences who Bond was and where he needs to go to matter in the global society, brilliant!

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is Entertaining, but at the end Feels like you Checked out too Late

The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (3 out of 5 Stars)

Directed by John Madden (Shakespeare in Love, Proof, The Debt)

Written by Ol Parker (Imagine Me & You) 

Starring : Judi Dench, Bill Nighy, Tom Wilkinson, Dev Patel, and Maggie Smith

Imagine a place in beautiful India where the elderly can go to find peace and relaxation for the remainder of their lives.  The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is far from the luxury in its advertisement.  The story centers on a group of elderly individuals who is looking to escape/leave behind some of the baggage they have unintentionally accumulated at the end of their lives.  

Evelyn's (Dench) husband kept secrets about their financial status leaving her strapped. Doug Ainslee (Nighy) and his wife Jean Ainslee (Penelope Wilton) have invested poorly in their daughters internet company.  Madge (Celia Imrie) has grown tired of living off her children and wants another rich husband.  Graham (Wilkinson) lived in India many years ago and has returned to find a long lost love and the passion India brought to his life.  Norman (Roman Pickup) wants youthful passion.  Murial (Smith) needs a hip replacement, and India provides her with the quickest opportunity to get the surgery.  Together this group along with the hotels manager Sonny (Patel) come together and find peace as they find their place in this foreign country at their age.

John Madden directs this all star cast, and creates a beautifully shot film full of great imagery, which helps speak the films central story.  The story is more about exploring the unknown elements of this foreign environment, and how stepping outside of your comfort zone forces a person to grow and develop at any age.  Parker's script aides in this process and creates some beautifully heartfelt stories, with some witty humorous moments.  The script also creates some problems for the film by focusing on too many characters and stories, which sometimes appears daunting for Parker to tackle.  With too many characters the film sometimes loses focus and over extends your presence as a guest into this dilapidated hotel. 

Even though the script is a bit long, the performances of a few actors bring back the heart and character of this story.  The standouts were Dench, Wilkinson, and Smith.  Dench is the narrator of the groups evolution and journey; she finds her place realizing she tackle working, loving, and finding the core of what it means to grow, and find ones self for the first time in her life.  Wilkinson acting is almost effortless,but he always challenges himself to get to the depth of a character.  As Graham Wilkinson battles his own fears and trepidation by returning to a country and a former lover whom he feels he has wronged, but on this journey he finally comes to peace with himself.  Yet within most films Maggie Smith is the scene-stealer; she is funny, touching, and shows so much depth in a woman who fears change the most.

The film is is entertaining, but at the end feels like you checked out too late, and Madden and Parker drown the message with sap.  The film feels prolonged and even though there are several enjoyable performances, and we get to see the beauty of India, the story suffers from a lack of focus.