Oscar Roundup 2012: BAFTA, Blimey I Think They've Got it!?

Over the the many years of the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTA) there are two apparent facts, they line up for the most part with Oscar, but they also take care of their own.  What does that mean?  British films, directors, actors etc tend to make it in over the surefire Oscar nominee.  Looking down blow you will see how Oscar and BAFTA line-up in regards to Best Picture, which actors recieved nominations at BAFTA (not at the Oscars), and how this will impact this year's nominees at BAFTA, and the Academy Awards.

In the Best Film/Picture world, over the last 8 years BAFTA has done well.  2004 was  BAFTA's weakest year in recent memory they only matched 2/5, and was the only year without the the Best Picture winner nominated in a long time, which is truly an anomaly.  Of the BAFTA nominees that missed at Oscar time the three were some how affiliated with UK production, showing one of the trends with the way BAFTA and Oscar may not always align, and proving a little bias from the country of origin.  The same can be said with the acting categories.

 BAFTA                                                            Oscar 

The Aviator*	The Aviator
Finding Neverland	Finding Nverland
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind	Million Dollar Baby*
The Motorcycle Diaries	Ray
Vera Drake	Sideways

In 2005 BAFTA picked British film The Constant Gardener over the very American Steven Spielberg's Munich. In 2006 BAFTA went 4/5, picking the British film The Last King of Scotland, over Clint Eastwood's Letter's from Iwo Jima, this was also a sign that Dreamgirls was weaker than predicted. In 2007 (as seen below) BAFTA went 3/5, picking a German film, which had no shot at a Best Picture nomination, and American Gnagster, which was directed by the famed British director Ridley Scott.

 BAFTA                                                            Oscar 

Atonement*	Atonement
No Country for Old Men	No Country for Old Men*
There will be Blood	There will be Blood
American Gangster	Juno
The Lives of Others	Michael Clayton

In 2008, 2009, and 2010, with their five nominees predicted all of the Best Picture nominees.  Unlike the Academy their did not switch to the 10 picture system or the 5-10 picture system.  In 2011 BAFTA only predicted 3 Best Picture nominees, and like within years prior this was based on their tendency to award British or Foreign Language films. Last year's 2011 was the weakest year where the Academy had more than 5 nominees.  In the diagram below it shows that BAFTA only had 3 of the Academy's 9 nominees.  Tinker Tailor was a UK film, and well liked by their Academy, while Drive's nomination was just something proving they sometimes have better taste than us Yanks

BAFTA                                                                     Oscar 

The Help	The Help
The Descendants	The Descendants
The Artist*	The Artist*
Drive	Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy	The Tree of Life
	Midnight in Paris
	Moneyball
	War Horse
	Hugo

In the acting categories their are often many famous Brits who make the cut at BAFTA, but are left in the lurch come Oscar time.  Here is a list by category:

Best Actor in a Leading Role (6)

Ralph Fiennes-The Constant Gardener (2005)

Daniel Craig-Casino Royale (2006)

Richard Griffiths-The History Boys (2006)

Dev Patel-Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

Andy Serkis-Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll (2009)

Michael Fassbender-Shame (2011

Best Actress in a Leading Role (7)

Kate Winslet-Finding Neverland (2004)

Judi Dench-Mrs. Henderson Presents (2005)

Keira Knightly-Atonement (2007)

Kristin Scott Thomas-I've Loved You So Long (2008)

Kate Winslet-Revolutionary Road (2008)

Saoirse Ronan-The Lovely Bones (2009)

Tilda Swinton-We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role (11)

Phil Davis-Vera Drake (2004)

James McAvoy-The Last King of Scotland (2006)

Leslie Phillips-Venus (2006)

Michael Sheen-The Queen (2006)

Brendan Gleeson-In Bruges (2008)

Christian McKay-Me and Orson Welles (2009)

Alfred Molina-An Education (2009)

Andrew Garfield-The Social Network (2010)

Peter Postlewaite-The Town (2010)

Jim Boradbent-The Iron Lady (2011)

Kenneth Brannaugh-My Week with Marilyn (2011)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role (16) 

Heather Craney-Vera Drake (2004)

Julie Christie-Finding Neverland (2004)

Brenda Blethyn-Pride and Prejudice (2005)

Toni Collette-Little Miss Sunshine (2006)-Aussie

Emily Blunt-The Devil Wears Prada (2006)

Frances de la Tour-The History Boys (2006)

Samantha Morton-Control (2007)

Kelly McDonald-No Country for Old Men (2007)

Frieda Pinto-Slumndog Millionaire (2008)

Tilda Swinton-Burn After Reading (2008)

Ann-Marie Duff-Nowhere Boy (2009)

Kristin Scott Thomas-Nowhere Boy (2009)

Miranda Richardson-Made in Dagenham (2010)

Lesley Manville-Another Year (2010)

Carey Mulligan-Drive (2011)

Judi Dench-My Week with Marilyn (2011)

Of the the BAFTA nominees over the last 8 years 40 of them have been Brits who have not gone on to be nominated at the Academy Awards.  This only counts the Brits who were not nominated, but about 1/4 of the BAFTA nominees over the last 8 years were not nominated at the Oscars giving nominees a 3/4 chance, which are pretty could odds.

So who gets nominated and how will this impact the Academy Awards?  Given the non-consistent statistics and the BAFTAs honoring their own states men and women so regularly look for a different list of nominees, which may or may not look like my predictions below.  I tried to use the the above stats to help guide my predictions, but this is a massive shot in the dark! Listed below are my predictions:

Best Film 

Argo 

Lincoln 

 Les Miserables

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

alt: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Daniel Craig-Skyfall

Daniel Day-Lewis-Lincoln

Hugh Jackman-Les Miserables

Anthony Hopkins-Hitchcock

Joaquin Phoenix-The Master

Alt: Ewen McGregor-The Impossible

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Marion Cotillard-Rust and Bone

Judi Dench-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Helen Mirren-Hitchcock

Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty

Naomi Watts-The Impossible

Alt: Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook

Best Actor in a Supporting Role 

Alan Arkin-Argo

Javier Bardem-Skyfall

Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master

Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln

Eddie Redmayne-Les Miserables

Alt: Tom Wilkinson-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Judi Dench-Skyfall

Anne Hathway-Les Miserables 

Sally Field-Lincoln

Nicole Kidman-The Paperboy

Maggie Smith-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Alt: Samantha Barks-Les Miserables

Best Director 

Ben Affleck-Argo

Kathryn Bigelow-Zero Dark Thirty

Sam Mendes-Skyfall

Tom Hooper-Les Miserables

Steven Spielberg-Lincoln

Alt: John Madden-The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

BAFTA Award Nominations Highlight The Artist, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and Hugo

Today the British Academy of Film Television Arts (BAFTA) announced their nominations.  BAFTA is the UK's version of the Academy Awards. These awards typically help give a good perspective on the Academy Awards.  


British films/actors typically are always given nominations, and these nominations do not always follow to the Oscars, like Judi Dench's nomination for My Week with Marilyn, which is a throw away nomination.  Meanwhile BAFTA also picks some pretty great surprises with Brit Lynne Ramsey nominated for Best Director for We Need to Talk About Kevin.


Two films received a major boost here, Drive, and Tinker Tailor  Soldier Spy.  Spy has the second most nominations with 11 including Best Picture.  Meanwhile Drive garnered 4 nominations, including the Best Picture race too.


The Artist has solidified its front runner status with a total of 12 nominations.  Meanwhile The Descendants which won at the Globes only received 3 nominations setting this film back a bit.  The other big surprise in the world of frontrunners is that Hugo received 9 nominations and no Best Picture nomination.  Hugo is still a serious threat but this weakens its chances. At the middle ground My Week with Marilyn (a British film) received 6 nominations The Help had 5, and War Horse had 5 nominations.


This award show tends to have an impact or helps to predict the winners, it can also help predict some surprise nominations because many of the members of the Academy are British.  Here is the complete list of nominations:

BEST FILM

• THE ARTIST – Thomas Langmann
• THE DESCENDANTS – Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
• DRIVE – Marc Platt, Adam Siegel
• THE HELP – Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Robyn Slovo

DIRECTOR

• THE ARTIST – Michel Hazanavicius
• DRIVE Nicolas – Winding Refn
• HUGO – Martin Scorsese
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Tomas Alfredson
• WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN – Lynne Ramsay

LEADING ACTOR

• BRAD PITT – Moneyball
• GARY OLDMAN – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
• GEORGE CLOONEY – The Descendants
• JEAN DUJARDIN – The Artist
• MICHAEL FASSBENDER – Shame

LEADING ACTRESS

• BÉRÉNICE BEJO The Artist – Film
• MERYL STREEP – The Iron Lady
• MICHELLE WILLIAMS – My Week with Marilyn
• TILDA SWINTON – We Need to Talk About Kevin
• VIOLA DAVIS – The Help

SUPPORTING ACTOR

• CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER – Beginners
• JIM BROADBENT – The Iron Lady
• JONAH HILL – Moneyball
• KENNETH BRANAGH – My Week with Marilyn
• PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN – The Ides of March

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• CAREY MULLIGAN – Drive
• JESSICA CHASTAIN – The Help
• JUDI DENCH – My Week with Marilyn
• MELISSA MCCARTHY – Bridesmaids
• OCTAVIA SPENCER – The Help

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM

• MY WEEK WITH MARILYN – Simon Curtis, David Parfitt, Harvey Weinstein, Adrian Hodges
• SENNA – Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Manish Pandey
• SHAME – Steve McQueen, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Abi Morgan
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – _Tomas Alfredson, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Robyn Slovo, Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan
• WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN – Lynne Ramsay, Luc Roeg, Jennifer Fox, Robert Salerno, Rory Stewart Kinnear

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER

• ATTACK THE BLOCK – Joe Cornish (Director/Writer)
• BLACK POND – Will Sharpe (Director/Writer), Tom Kingsley (Director), Sarah Brocklehurst (Producer)
• CORIOLANUS – Ralph Fiennes (Director)
• SUBMARINE – Richard Ayoade (Director/Writer)
• TYRANNOSAUR – Paddy Considine (Director), Diarmid Scrimshaw (Producer)

DOCUMENTARY

• GEORGE HARRISON: LIVING IN THE MATERIAL WORLD – Martin Scorsese
• PROJECT NIM – James Marsh, Simon Chinn
• SENNA – Asif Kapadia

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• THE ARTIST – Michel Hazanavicius
• BRIDESMAIDS – Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig
• THE GUARD – John Michael McDonagh
• THE IRON LADY – Abi Morgan
• MIDNIGHT IN PARIS – Woody Allen

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• THE DESCENDANTS – Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
• THE HELP – Tate Taylor
• THE IDES OF MARCH – George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon
• MONEYBALL – Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

• INCENDIES – Denis Villeneuve, Luc Déry, Kim McGraw
• PINA – Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel
• POTICHE – François Ozon, Eric Altmayer, Nicolas Altmayer
• A SEPARATION – Asghar Farhadi
• THE SKIN I LIVE IN – Pedro Almodóvar, Agustin Almodóvar

ANIMATED FILM

• HE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN: THE SECRET OF THE UNICORN – Steven Spielberg
• ARTHUR CHRISTMAS – Sarah Smith
• RANGO – Gore Verbinski

ORIGINAL MUSIC

• THE ARTIST – Ludovic Bource
• THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
• HUGO Howard – Shore
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Alberto Iglesias
• WAR HORSE – John Williams

CINEMATOGRAPHY

• THE ARTIST – Guillaume Schiffman
• THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO – Jeff Cronenweth
• HUGO – Robert Richardson
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Hoyte van Hoytema
• WAR HORSE – Janusz Kaminski

EDITING

• THE ARTIST – Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius
• DRIVE – Mat Newman
• HUGO – Thelma Schoonmaker
• SENNA – Gregers Sall, Chris King
• TINKER TAILOR SOLIDER – SPY Dino Jonsater

PRODUCTION DESIGN

• THE ARTIST – Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould
• HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan
• HUGO – Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana MacDonald
• WAR HORSE – Rick Carter, Lee Sandales

COSTUME DESIGN

• THE ARTIST – Mark Bridges
• HUGO – Sandy Powell
• JANE EYRE – Michael O’Connor
• MY WEEK WITH MARILYN – Jill Taylor
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – Jacqueline Durran

SOUND

• THE ARTIST – Nadine Muse, Gérard Lamps, Michael Krikorian
• HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – James Mather, Stuart Wilson, Stuart Hilliker, Mike Dowson, Adam Scrivener
• HUGO – Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty, Tom Fleischman, John Midgley
• TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY – John Casali, Howard Bargroff, Doug Cooper, Stephen Griffiths, Andy Shelley
• WAR HORSE – Stuart Wilson, Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Richard Hymns

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS

• THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN: THE SECRET OF THE UNICORN – Joe Letteri
• HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – Tim Burke, John Richardson, Greg Butler, David Vickery
• HUGO – Rob Legato, Ben Grossman, Joss Williams
• RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES – Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White
• WAR HORSE – Ben Morris, Neil Corbould

MAKE UP & HAIR

• THE ARTIST – Julie Hewett, Cydney Cornell
• HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS – PART 2 – Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin
• HUGO Morag – Ross, Jan Archibald
• THE IRON LADY – Marese Langan
• MY WEEK WITH MARILYN – Jenny Shircore

SHORT ANIMATION

• ABUELAS – Afarin Eghbal, Kasia Malipan, Francesca Gardiner
• BOBBY YEAH – Robert Morgan
• A MORNING STROLL – Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe

SHORT FILM

• CHALK – Martina Amati, Gavin Emerson, James Bolton, Ilaria Bernardini
• MWANSA THE GREAT – Rungano Nyoni, Gabriel Gauchet
• ONLY SOUND REMAINS – Arash Ashtiani, Anshu Poddar
• PITCH BLACK HEIST – John Maclean, Gerardine O’Flynn
• TWO AND TWO – Babak Anvari, Kit Fraser, Gavin Cullen

ORANGE WEDNESDAYS RISING STAR AWARD

• ADAM DEACON
• CHRIS HEMSWORTH
• TOM HIDDLESTON
• CHRIS O’DOWD
• EDDIE REDMAYNE