What will this year's Oscars look like? Who will be the major players? Does Harvey have the magic once again? All of these are just a few of the questions people are asking now, but with the season getting underway, and heavy hitters like Fruitvale Station, Blue Jasmine, Nebraska, and Inside Llewyn Davis getting good press, there may be a lot of contenders already out there. Here are my very very early August predictions. Best Picture 12 Years a Slave American Hustle August: Osage County Blue Jasmine Fruitvale Station Gravity Inside Llewyn Davis Lee Daniel's The Butler Nebraska
Best Director Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station Joel and Ethan Coen-Inside Llewyn Davis Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity Lee Daniels-Lee Daniel's The Butler David O. Russell- American Hustle Best Actor Bruce Dern- Nebraska Chiwetel Ejiofor- 12 Years a Slave Michael B. Jordan-Fruitvale Station Robert Redford- All Is Lost Forrest Whitaker-Lee Daniel's The Butler
Best Actress Cate Blanchett- Blue Jasmine Sandra Bullock-Gravity Judi Dench- Philomena Julia Roberts- August: Osage County Kate Winslet-Labor Day
Best Supporting Actor Josh Brolin- Labor Day Michael Fassbender- 12 Years a Slave Harrison Ford-42 John Goodman-Inside Llewyn Davis Tom Hanks- Saving Mr. Banks Best Supporting Actress Amy Adams- American Hustle/Her Sally Hawkins- Blue Jasmine Octavia Spencer-Fruitvale Station Meryl Streep- August: Osage County Oprah Winfrey-Lee Daniel's The Butler
Best Original Screenplay American Hustle Blue Jasmine Fruitvale Station Inside Llewyn Davis Nebraska Best Adapted Screenplay 12 Years a Slave August: Osage County Before Midnight Foxcatcher Labor Day
Starring: Michael B. Jordan, Melonie Diaz, and Octavia Spencer
There have recently been many discussions about the role race play with regard to the arrest, death for people of color, especially black young men. Most of these conversations have come from the Trayvon Martin death, trial, and verdict. This one case has recently represented the way in which black people are treated by the justice system. The socially constructed paranoia of race, has intersected with crime, and there are two realities, within this paradigm. The first is centered on privilege and the lack of opportunity for poorer people, predominantly poorer people of color to escape their societal confines. The second is based on the stereotypes, in which men of color particularly black men are seen as antagonists. Fruitvale Station explores both.
On January 1st 2010, Oscar Grant was shot and killed in the Fruitvale Station BART train stop in Oakland California. The film opens with the real cell phone footage taken from numerous passengers on the train. After watching the footage we see Oscar (Jordan) in bed with his young girl friend Sophina (Diaz) at the beginning of what is the last day of his life.
Throughout this last day there are glimpses of the good and flawed nature of Oscar. Oscar is a young father who loves his daughter Tatiana; he is a loving son shopping for his mother Wanda's birthday, which is that day, and he is trying to turn over a new leaf, and no longer smoke and deal drugs. There are flashbacks to Oscars time in prison, and the challenges for his mother and family. There are also glimpses of anger, and his temper. First time director/writer Ryan Coogler has created a well balanced, a heartfelt character study of a young man stuck in a position trying to do the best while struggling with all of the bad around him.
Some people are going to argue this film is one sided, but I think this a great representation of the way in which society keeps people down, and unfortunately we have to view this through the death of a young man. Coogler's first time direction and writing, with feature films, has proven to be an incredibly successful, and impactful film. Coogler knows how to emphasize the good, and flawed aspects of Oscar well. The way he uses the real time text messaging helps emphasize the emotional level of the communication, and sadness for this person. Coogler knows how to give you hope, when you know there is none.You want Oscar to succeed especially after running into the man with his pregnant wife, there is hope for work. Coogler also knows how to hit you where it hurts especially in the final scenes while the cops wrestle Oscar to the ground. Coogler hits every emotion, and creates a brilliant character study.
This study of young Oscar could not be possible, without the brilliant performance from from Michael B. Jordan. Jordan is such a natural in this role; he embodies every aspect of young Osc (nickname), all the way down to his smile. Jordan played the young drug dealer Wallace in the television series The Wire, and based on an interview at Sundance, Coogler stated that the role was tailor made for Jordan. Jordan conveys the balance between have that dark edge, and being that love able guy brilliantly. Jordan conveys this best while his mother Wanda visits him in prison. You can't help but feel the depth in this moment.
One of the most tragic things about the story within this film is that Oscar died almost exactly on his mother's birthday. Octavia Spencer has shed even the minute comedic shades of her role in The Help, and past acting experiences to channel the depth and love of Wanda. Wanda is a loving mother who wants to do the best for her son; she wants him to succeed, which is the general tone of this film.
Station is about a young flawed man, who you want to see succeed; he tries hard throughout this film film, to be the best he can be for his mother, girlfriend, and daughter, but he never gets the opportunity, which is one of the greatest aspects of this tragedy. Fruitvale Station is a raw emotional journey that provides an broad perspective on a young man with prospects who never got to live to meet his potential.
June was an interesting month. Man of Steel did better than Superman Returns, which will help launch DC comic series, but the film was more Michael Bay than quality series reboot.
The most successful films of June have been This is the End, Monster's University, and I predict The Heat will fall into this group. End is a success because of its cost and percentage drop off each week. Monster's is outdoing other Pixar films. Heat is an R rated film which out did a major Rolan Emmerich film (White House Down).
How does July look, pretty boring, beyond a few films that could be plain fun!
July 4th
The Long Ranger (July 2nd) which cost a lot of money, and is from the brain of Verbinski and Bay looks like it could top White House Down as a massive flop. I have not heard anyone clamoring to see this film, and it just looks plain awful.
Despicable Me (July 2nd) is not going to re-invent the wheel, the story is going to be cute and hilarious I expect nothing less, and the minions are just great.
The Way Way Back (Limited) is a film I have already seen (Review here: http://eternalthoughtsofkevinsmind.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-way-way-back-is-heartfelt-coming-of.html). Jim Rash and Nat Faxon have constructed something beautiful, funny, and entertaining, go see it!
July 12th
Pacific Rim comes from the brilliant mind of Guillermo Del Torro, and looks like it's massive visual effects could make other films look like child's play. I am excited, but cautiously, as to to not build up the high too much.
Grown Ups 2 is missing Rob Schneider, which my friend John and I noticed while at the movies last evening. This will not drastically alter the quality of the movie, but this movie could be in a lot of trouble these stars are losing steam, and I am shocked this got a sequel.
Fruitvale Station was a smash at Sundance, look out for writer/director Coogler to make a big splash, and Michael B. Jordan to impress many. This could be a major competitor for the Oscars.
July 19th
Red 2, was a surprising sequel, the first was well like by critics, but did not make a lot of money. I thought the first was a bit boring, and did not laugh as much as I should have, Mirren was the star, not surprising.
R.I.P.D. looks like it could be fun, but is Ryan Reynolds a jinx for films like this? This film looks like it could be a lot of fun, the premise is kind of cool. Reynolds and Bridges look to be a great team, and this graphic novel turned film could be a success.
Turbo also stars Ryan Reynolds as the voice of a snail turned motor racer? I am not going to waste time on this cheap premise. Animated films have been lazy this year, and this film is proof.
The Conjuring is another attempt at horror films trying to be a landmark, or the next Exorcist, or Amityville Horror. This has a great cast, and comes from director James Wan (Saw), it could be good, but I am holding out that this is going to be too novelty.
Girl Most Likely stars Kristin Wiig, and looks like it could be fun, but the Icona Pop song over the trailer is just lame. I think this is going to be a big miss, it looks too quirky for its own good. I love Wiig, the cast, and the directors Sherri Springer Berman and Robert Pulcinni directed American Splendor, but they also did The Nanny Diaries, conundrum.
Only God Forgives bring Nicolas Winding Refn back together with Ryan Gosling for another go around, their first being Drive. This was shown at Cannes and the film received a lot less love than Drive, in fact it got pretty awful reviews. Refn style as a director is interesting, this could be one the critics are too harsh on, or they could be giving a "danger Will Robinson."
July 26th
The Wolverine has the worst marketing, and a lot to live up to, in a bad way. Origins was seen as a one of the worst Marvel films, even worse than Last Stand, this could smell trouble for Old Man Logan. Back to the marketing, people are not even aware the film is being released, this is one of those films that just may be a failure without even getting a fighting chance.
The To Do Listis this year's Easy A/Pitch Perfect. This film looks hilarious, and stars the indie star on the rise, Aubrey Plaza. Plaza is great on Parks and Recreation, and i have no doubt after Safety not Guaranteed she can carry this film.
Blue Jasmine, is Woody Allen's latest flick, and after his disastrous adventure in Rome Jasmine shows the darker humor, and could hearken back to more old school Woody. Blanchett, and Hawkins are two great actresses, and I am excited to see what they can do within this film.
What will this year's Oscars look like? Who will be the major players? Does Harvey have the magic once again? All of these are just a few of the questions people are asking now, but with the season getting underway, and heavy hitters like Fruitvale Station, Blue Jasmine, Nebraska, and Inside Llewyn Davis getting good press, there may be a lot of contenders already out there. Here are my very very early August predictions.
