12 Years a Slave, Lee Daniel's The Butler, and August: Osage County, and Dallas Buyer's Club lead SAG Film Nominations

Before I even publish the television nominees (which matter), the film nominees are a big deal, and prove something far more interesting, the Oscar race is on!

I think the Supporting Actor race is once again the most interesting, I am not entirely certain Gandolfinni will score an Oscar nomination, but I predicted his nomination here.  This category was probably filled with more "surprises" than any other Tom Hanks, and Bradley Cooper the bigger stars snubbed for Barkhad Adbi in Captain Phillips and Daniel Bruhl in Rush.  Abdi has the Oscar nomination.

I went 5 for 5 in Supporting Actress I knew they would buy Julia Robert category fraud, her celebrity also helped her out like Nicole Kidman's in The Paperboy last year.  The other four nominees are locks in this category watch out for that elusive fifth person to knock Robert out, maybe Octavia Spencer.

In a surprise move Jennifer Lawrence was the only cast member to nominated from American Hustle, which is surprising because the film has so many actors, and this is where most of the support for the film would come come from, but as stated above no Cooper,  and no Amy Adams in Lead Actress.  The lead actress race looks locked up with five veterans, Streep, Bullock, Blanchett, Dench, and Thompson.

The Best Actor thud heard round the world is no Robert Redford in All is Lost, Tom O'Neil from goldderby.com is going to go crazy.  Redford hosts Sundance, but is kind an outside, whereas Whitaker and Hanks are pretty present, and two of the more popular films of the season, their nominations make sense.

Who predicted Dallas Buyers Club getting a nomination in Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture? I will buy you a shot, this was not on anyone's list, just proving the film has legs, and could sneak into the Best Picture race.  The rest of the nominees in this category were predictable, with 12 years a Slave leading the pack with 4 nominations.  August: Osage County and Lee Daniel's The Butler received and Dallas Buyer's Club all received 3 nominations while American Hustle has 2.

You may be asking where is The Wolf of Wall Street, Her, and some other late surging films?  Wolf did screen for as many members like Django Unchained last year, which did not get nominated at SAG, but then went on to score 5 nominations and 2 wins at the Oscars.  Look for films like Her, and Wolf to still show up at the Oscars.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Dallas Buyers Club
Lee Daniel's The Butler

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Lead Role
Bruce Dern-Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyer's Club
Forrest Whitaker-Lee Daniel's The Butler

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Lead Role
Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock-Gravity
Judi Dench-Philomena
Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks
Meryl Streep-August: Osage County

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi-Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl-Rush
Michael Fassbender-12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini-Enough Said
Jared Leto-Dallas Buyer's Club

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Lawrence-American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts-August: Osage County
June Squibb-Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey-Lee Daniel's The Butler

Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Film Predictions

The first "major" film nominations are announced tomorrow.  In years past the Golden Globes always announced their nominees first, but this year the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards are being announced first.  This award is a bit different because the "Best Picture" is Outstanding Performance by a Cast in Motion Picture.  Here are my predictions below:

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniel's The Butler
Saving Mr. Banks

Beyond these five three other ensembles have a decent shot of showing up here: Blue Jasmine (Midnight in Paris was nominated here), Nebraska (the last two Alexander Payne films have made the cut), and The Wolf of Wall Street (Scorsese casts have done well here).  My 6th place would go to Blue Jasmine mainly because of the mix of film and television actors in the cast, then Nebraska then Wolf.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Lead Role
Bruce Dern-Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyer's Club
Robert Redford-All is Lost
Forrest Whitaker-Lee Daniel's The Butler

This was a tough call, I think the 5th spot is between Whitaker and Hanks.  Both have a strong fan base, Hanks as a producer/actor, Whitaker as a director/actor.  I think this is where you will see support for The Butler start to swell up.  Too close to call.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Lead Role
Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock-Gravity
Judi Dench-Philomena
Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks
Meryl Streep-August: Osage County

I am torn on whether Meryl can get a nomination once again, or if there is fatigue.  I think Amy Adams may be a strong spoiler.  I also think this will be a year for veteran winners in this category.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Bradley Cooper-American Hustle
Michael Fassbender-12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini-Enough Said
Tom Hanks-Saving Mr. Banks
Jared Leto-Dallas Buyer's Club

The toughest category to completely predict because beyond Leto, Fassbender, and Hanks I feel like I am grasping at thing air.  I think Gandolfini will make it into the race here, SAG is sentimental look at Jerry Orbach (although that was television), but Gandolfini was in both television and film regularly.  I think Cooper is vulnerable because he is a lead, but category fraud is in their MO, and American Hustle will be a big nominee tomorrow.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Jennifer Lawrence-American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts-August: Osage County
June Squibb-Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey-Lee Daniel's The Butler

Another tough call, I think Squibb and Roberts are the weaker links here, but they make sense.  SAG nominees always seem cohesive to me, and they will honor a few nominees as stragglers, like Nicole Kidman, Kidman got nominated here mainly because of her name.  The same will help Roberts, along with her talent.

At the end the big winners from this day of nominations will be films who have either been no shows with the critics, Lee Daniel's The Butler, and Saving Mr. Banks, August: Osage County.  These three films will/should score 3 nominations a piece.  American Hustle will also get 3, maybe four if Amy Adams can crack Female Actor.  12 Years a Slave will have four.  I can see Hustle and Slave in a tie for the most nominations, do not be surprised if that is the headline tomorrow.

The State of the Race 2013: Best Picture Before the Globes, and Guilds lay the Hammer Down!

It was a week ago today that the first critics group announced there winners, and to the surprise of many American Hustle, which has not been seen by audiences yet took home the prize at the New York Film Critics Circle.  Many bloggers cried cried foul at this choice, and Best Screenplay (except for the Lawrence win).  I was one of of the bloggers, the film is great, entertaining one of David O. Russell's better films, but not the best of the year.  I think Lawrence is over rated in the film, but I will not bore you my rant.  Since this group has announced their winners, American Hustle has disappeared, and not shown up at any other critics group, interesting, but a non-factor.

At the moment 12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen (Best Director), Chiwetel Ejiofor (Best Actor), and Lupita Nyong'o (Best Supporting Actress) have won the most awards from all the critics groups.  Cate Blanchett has only lost at the National Board of Review, and Jared Leto is the front runner in Best Supporting Actor.  These winners look like the predicted Oscar winners at the moment, so will anything change with the Globes and Guild Awards?

The film that has gained the most attention from awards with critics groups is the Spike Jonez film Her.  Her has two Best Picture wins, a Best Director win, and 2 Best Screenplay wins under its belt.  In an ideal world this film would be launched as major player into the award show "derby."

If you read or go anywhere near goldderby.com editor Daniel Montgomery had a great point stating "Sadly, Her is probably a non-starter. It's an outstanding film telling an unusual kind of love story, and winning with NBR and L.A. critics gives it a better-than-expected shot at major nominations, but if "The Social Network" went over the academy's head, the sentient operating systems in "Her" probably won't fare any better. This is the same academy that last year could barely figure out how to vote with a computer, let alone fall in love with one."

Her is like Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, critical darling wins tons of awards, but only shows up in one or two categories. At the moment it looks like a contender, and it could be, based on the critics groups, but look for the Globes and Guilds to change the game.  If I were a betting man, this will get Best Original Screenplay, and a Best Original Score Nomination, maybe Director.

Nebraska has made a strong showing in the acting races, Bruce Dern has won two Best Actor trophies, June Squibb has a Best Supporting Actress win, and Will Forte has a Best Supporting Actor win as well.  While its not a critics group Nebraska also had the second most nominations from the Independent Spirit Awards (ISA). Nebraska has grown a strong pair of legs, and could turn into a solid contender in many categories.  While Nebraska was always on solid ground because of Alexander Payne, and its reception at Cannes, the recent wins, and nominations have pushed the film as a stronger contender for nominations.

Where does American Hustle stand?  Hustle showed up to one critics group and disappeared as I stated above, but that means nothing.  Critics groups typically set things in motion rather than guarantee the win for a candidate.  At this moment I would argue American Hustle, and Gravity are in the best positions.  Both have won a major critics award, and will do well in the next couple of weeks.  American Hustle is going to score big at the Screen Actors Guild Awards-probably three nominations, and the Golden Globes will go nuts for this film as well, and the fact that its placed in Comedy can't hurt.  While some will argue, this is about bad men, I argue it has the one thing the last few best pictures have had, laughter.

2012-Argo was a taught thriller, but John Goodman and Alan Arkin made everyone laugh

2011-The Artist was about the rise and fall of a silent film star, but was a comedy and funny too

2010-The King's Speech-Sure this was a drama to the core, but there were some witty moments, there had to be it's a British film

We are in a period where Academy  voters seem to want to laugh, at least a little, mix that in with some classic period drama moments, and you have American Hustle.  The film will do well at the box office as well, probably over 100 million, which will help get even more nominations.

With a large number of critics groups out there, although there are many still to go the relevance of these groups is to build a buzz.  American Hustle, Nebraska and Her have surely gained the most buzz from the groups, namely because they have not been seen by mass audiences.  Will these films capitalize, or are they destined to stay film beloved by critics and not the Academy? 

Gravity, and Her Top the L.A. Film Critics Association Awards (Among Many Ties)

Today with Boston Society of Film Critics, the New York Online Film Critics Association, and L.A. Film Critics Association (LAFCA) announcing their winners, there is an aura of split decisions.  Today Boston and New York picked 12 Years a Slave, but L.A. deemed Best Picture a tie between Gravity and Her.  Beyond the New York (non-online critics) who picked American Hustle these films have been dominating forces with numerous wins for Nebraska, and Inside Llewyn Davis in acting and technical categories.  The lack of consensus proves this year has a lot of quality films, and this could be one of the most interesting award seasons to date.

As stated above the LAFCA deemed Best Picture a tie between Gravity and Her.  Gravity took home four prizes including Best Picture, Best Director for Alfonso Cuaron, Best Editing, and Best Cinematography.  Her won two prizes, Best Picture, and Best Production Design, the film was a runner up in three other categories.

"It's a tie" seemed to be a repetitive pattern throughout the live tweeting of these winners.  There was a tie in the Best Actress category between Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine, and Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color.  There was also a tie in the Best Supporting Actor category between James Franco, Spring Breakers, and Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club.  Once again Blanchett and Leto stick out as the front runners of the award season in the acting categories.

Based on the voting for Best Actor I think its safe to say there are four locks McConaughey, Redford, Dern, and Ejiofor.  I think Tom Hanks is vulnerable for Captain Phillips, and there are many actors who could swoop in to take his spot.  Yet do these awards matter?  The films that were most helped by these critics awards were American Hustle (although forgotten by the rest) and Her, these awards get their names out their and cement motion for them to potentially make waves with the Academy.  

On another note props to the great Megan Ellison for winning the New Generation prize; she deserves it!

• Best Picture: Gravity and Her (tie)
• Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity; runner-up: Spike Jonze, Her
• Best Actor: Bruce Dern, Nebraska; runner-up: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
• Best Actress:  Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine, and Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color (tie)
• Best Supporting Actor:  James Franco, Spring Breakers, and Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club (tie)
• Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave; runner-up: June Squibb, Nebraska
• Best Screenplay: Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke,Before Midnight; runner-up: Spike Jonze, Her
• Best Foreign-Language Film: Blue Is the Warmest Color; runner-up: The Great Beauty
• Best Feature Animation: Ernest & Celestine; runner-up: The Wind Rises
• Best Documentary: Stories We Tell; runner-up: The Act of Killing
• Best Music Score: T Bone Burnett, Inside Llewyn Davis; runner-up: Arcade Fire and Owen Pallett, Her
• Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity; Runner-up, Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
• Best Editing: Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger, Gravity; Shane Carruth and David Lowery, Upstream Color
• Best Production Design: K.K. Barrett, Her; Runner-up: Jess Gonchor, Inside Llewyn Davis
• Douglas Edwards Independent/Experimental Film/Video Award:
• Cabinets Of Wonder: Films and a Performance by Charlotte Pryce
• The NEW GENERATION prize: Megan Ellison.

12 Years a Slave Leads Boston Society of Film Critics Winners, with Wolf of Wall Street as the consistent Runner-Up (like Boston Online Critics)

12 Years a Slave took home three prizes at the Boston Society of Film Critics (BSFC) today, winning Picture, Director for Steve McQueen, and Best Actor for Chiwetel Ejiofor.  The other big winner was Enough Said, which won Best Screenplay, and James Gandolfini won Supporting Actor for the film.    The other most note able fact about the BSFC is that The Wolf of Wall Street made a lot of waves as the runner-up in many categories.  Cate Blanchett also continued her dominance at the critics group; she and Jared Leto have been continuously the two names present between winners, and runner-ups.

Boston Globe critic Ty Burr stated that many, including himself were not able to see a screening of Wall Street, but believe it could have done better, beating Slave even for Best Picture if it had been seen by more.

• Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave; runner-up: The Wolf of Wall Street
• Best Director: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave: runner-up: Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
• Best Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave: runner-up: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
• Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine: Judi Dench in Philomena
• Best Supporting Actor: James Gandolfini, Enough Said; Runner-up: TIE! Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips, and Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
• Best Supporting Actress: June Squibb, Nebraska; Runner-up: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
• Best Screenplay: Enough Said; runner-up: Wolf of Wall Street
• Best Documentary:  The Act Of Killing; runner-up: Blackfish
• Best Animated Feature: The Wind Rises; runner-up: Frozen (near tie)
• Best New Filmmaker: Ryan Coogler for Fruitvale Station; runner-up: Josh Oppenheimer Act Of Killing
• Best Cinematography: Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki; runner-up: The Grandmaster
• Best Editing: Rush; runner up: Wolf of Wall Street
• Best Use of Music in a Film: Inside Llewyn Davis; runner-up: Nebraska

12 Years a Slave Sweeps the Boston Online Film Critics Awards

There are some years, the same films/performers show up time and time again at the critics awards, but
 based on the tremendous amount of great films this year it looks like the critics groups may all in somewhat different directions.

At the moment to only repeat winners are Steve McQueen, Cate Blanchett, and Jared Leto.  These are names that could repeat all awards season, but look for the rest of the winners to have a vary diverse array of winners.  12 Years won 6 awards with this group.

Here is the List of full winners: (via awardsdaily.com )

BEST PICTURE:
12 YEARS A SLAVE

BEST DIRECTOR:
Steve McQueen, 12 YEARS A SLAVE

BEST ACTOR:
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 YEARS A SLAVE

BEST ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, BLUE JASMINE

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Jared Leto, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 YEARS A SLAVE

BEST SCREENPLAY:
BEFORE MIDNIGHT

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR

BEST DOCUMENTARY:
THE ACT OF KILLING

BEST ANIMATED FILM:
THE WIND RISES and FROZEN (tie)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS

BEST EDITING:
12 YEARS A SLAVE

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
12 YEARS A SLAVE

THE TEN BEST FILMS OF THE YEAR:
12 YEARS A SLAVE
INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS
THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
GRAVITY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT
THE SPECTACULAR NOW
BLUE IS THE WARMEST COLOR
SPRING BREAKERS
THE WORLD’S END
FRUITVALE STATION