State of the Oscar Race 2013: Which of the Many Best Actor Candidates Make the Cut?

Yesterday's Independent Spirit Award Nominations proved one fact, there are so many great performances from male leads this year that there had to be six nominees.  The six nominees are Bruce Dern for Nebraska, Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave, Oscar Isaacs for Inside Llewyn Davis, Michael B. Jordan for Fruitvale Station, Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club, and Robert Redford for All is Lost.

Looking at this list of six most folks, including myself would go wow, this would be a great line-up for Oscar, and they and I would be right.  There is just one or well a few minor problems, and they include: Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips, Forrest Whitaker for Lee Daniels' The Butler, Christian Bale in Out of the Furnace or American Hustle, Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street or even The Great Gatsby, and the bigger long shots Idris Elba for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Joaquin Phoenix for Her, and Ben Stiller for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.  That is 15 possible candidates, and astounding.

Let's look at Independent Spirit Award Nominees past track record, meaning the last 5 years, or even 10 before that the amount of crossover between minimal.

2012

Only Bradley Cooper was nominated for both Oscar and and the Independent Spirit Award (ISA), but he did not win either John Hawkes who was a strong contender to be nominated, but missed out because of Joaquin Phoenix.  Hawkes won the Spirit Award.  Of the five nominees Cooper and Hawkes were the only strong contenders.

2011

Jean Dujardin won the ISA and the Oscar for Best Actor for The Artist, this rarely happens, but could happen again this year. Dujardin and Demian Bichir were the only two nominated for the ISA, and Oscar.  The only other nominee for the ISA who had a possibility of being nominated was Ryan Gosling for Driver, but the Academy appeared to hate this film.

2010

James Franco was the only person nominated for ISA, and Oscar of the five nominees; he won the ISA, but lost Oscar to Colin Firth.  None of the other four contenders were ever "serious" contenders for Oscar.

2009

Jeff Bridges won the Oscar and the ISA for Crazy Heart.  The only other person nominated for both ISA and Oscar was Colin Firth for A Single Man.  None of the other three men were "serious" contenders.

2008

If you want to find a year similar to to 2013, where ISA, and the Oscars line-up was 2008.  4 of the 5 nominees were nominated at both, and they were Sean Penn in Milk (who won the Oscar) Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler (won the ISA), Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker, and Richard Jenkins for The Visitor.  I could see a similar situation to this happening this year, 4 of the five nominees come from this line-up, while two are snubbed.

Let's look at this year's ISA nominees:

Locks:
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Robert Redford-All is Lost
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club

Ejiofor and Redford are the two top contenders at the moment, but watch out for Matthew McConaughey his performance in Dallas Buyers Club is the thing Oscar performances are made of!

Near Lock:
Bruce Dern-Nebraska

Dern is almost the next closest thing as a lock in this category, with his buddies like Nicholson and his daughter Laura Dern championing him, he can/will be a strong contender to not only be an Oscar nominee, but a surprise winner.

Longshots:
Oscar Isaacs-Inside Llewyn Davis
Michael B. Jordan-Fruitvale Station

Isaacs and Jordan are the newcomers of this group, they have critically acclaimed performances, but breaking into this category as relative new comers is going to be tough.

Who takes the fifth spot of the non-ISA contenders?

Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips-The film just made 100 million and he is getting rave reviews for his performance.  The thing working against him is that people may just nominate him in supporting for Saving Mr. Banks.

Forrest Whitaker-Lee Daniels' The Butler-The film is going to better with Oscar voters than critics, and with Weinstein Company behind the film I can't imagine it not getting more than one acting nomination  Whitaker has won before, is the movie out of sight out of mind?

Christian Bale-Out of the Furnace or American Hustle-If he was going to get nominated my money would be on Hustle, but in this tough year his performance and weight gain may be overlooked.

Leonardo DiCaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street or The Great Gatsby-Wolf has not been seen by anyone, and DiCaprio is always a dark horse especially in a Scorsese film.  Gatsby is only a contender in the technical categories.

At the moment my prediction for Best Actor is:
Bruce Dern-Nebraska

Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club

Robert Redford-All is Lost

Anything is possible in this category, but I only see one of these men losing out, if any.  The truth of the matter is that Oscar should take a note from the ISA nominees, and have 6 nominated performances.

Ryan Coogler's Fruitvale Station is an Emotional Story about a Young Man's Final Hours

Fruitvale Station (4 1/2 out of 5 Stars)

Directed and Written by: Ryan Coogler

Starring: Michael B. Jordan, Melonie Diaz, and Octavia Spencer

There have recently been many discussions about the role race play with regard to the arrest, death for people of color, especially black young men.  Most of these conversations have come from the Trayvon Martin death, trial, and verdict.  This one case has recently represented the way in which black people are treated by the justice system.  The socially constructed paranoia of race, has intersected with crime, and there are two realities, within this paradigm.  The first is centered on privilege and the lack of opportunity for poorer people, predominantly poorer people of color to escape their societal confines.  The second is based on the stereotypes, in which men of color particularly black men are seen as antagonists.  Fruitvale Station explores both. 

On January 1st 2010, Oscar Grant was shot and killed in the Fruitvale Station BART train stop in Oakland California.  The film opens with the real cell phone footage taken from numerous passengers on the train.  After watching the footage we see Oscar (Jordan) in bed with his young girl friend Sophina (Diaz) at the beginning of what is the last day of his life.  

Throughout this last day there are glimpses of the good and flawed nature of Oscar.  Oscar is a young father who loves his daughter Tatiana; he is a loving son shopping for his mother Wanda's birthday, which is that day, and he is trying to turn over a new leaf, and no longer smoke and deal drugs.  There are flashbacks to Oscars time in prison, and the challenges for his mother and family.  There are also glimpses of anger, and his temper.  First time director/writer Ryan Coogler has created a well balanced, a heartfelt character study of a young man stuck in a position trying to do the best while struggling with all of the bad around him.

Some people are going to argue this film is one sided, but I think this a great representation of the way in which society keeps people down, and unfortunately we have to view this through the death of a young man.  Coogler's first time direction and writing, with feature films, has proven to be an incredibly successful, and impactful film.  Coogler knows how to emphasize the good, and flawed aspects of Oscar well.  The way he uses the real time text messaging helps emphasize the emotional level of the communication, and sadness for this person.  Coogler knows how to give you hope, when you know there is none.You want Oscar to succeed especially after running into the man with his pregnant wife, there is hope for work. Coogler also knows how to hit you where it hurts especially in the final scenes while the cops wrestle Oscar to the ground.  Coogler hits every emotion, and creates a brilliant character study.

This study of young Oscar could not be possible, without the brilliant performance from from Michael B. Jordan.  Jordan is such a natural in this role; he embodies every aspect of young Osc (nickname), all the way down to his smile.  Jordan played the young drug dealer Wallace in the television series The Wire, and based on an interview at Sundance, Coogler stated that the role was tailor made for Jordan.  Jordan conveys the balance between have that dark edge, and being that love able guy brilliantly. Jordan conveys this best while his mother Wanda visits him in prison.  You can't help but feel the depth in this moment.

One of the most tragic things about the story within this film is that Oscar died almost exactly on his mother's birthday.  Octavia Spencer has shed even the minute comedic shades of her role in The Help, and past acting experiences to channel the depth and love of Wanda.  Wanda is a loving mother who wants to do the best for her son; she wants him to succeed, which is the general tone of this film.  

Station is about a young flawed man, who you want to see succeed; he tries hard throughout this film film, to be the best he can be for his mother, girlfriend, and daughter, but he never gets the opportunity, which is one of the greatest aspects of this tragedy.  Fruitvale Station is a raw emotional journey that provides an broad perspective on a young man with prospects who never got to live to meet his potential.