Based on this change, voters still seem to judge this based on the make-up, although I am bit shocked Les Miserables won last year, I guess that buzzed head of Anne Hathaway's wooed voters. The film with a Best Picture tends to win over voters in categories like this, and Visual Effects. This was one of the only categories The Curious Case of Benjamin won which had 13 nominations, it also had wins in Art Direction, and Visual Effects.
I decided to look at Makeup/Hair Styling this year because I still think the Academy is focused mainly on the makeup factor, you can see this with the snub of American Hustle, which was widely regarded as a shoe-in nominee because of all the crazy wigs, and hairstyles, but was snubbed. I am honestly shocked 12 Years a Slave or Lee Daniel's The Butler did not make this category their makeup transformations, and lashings were so realistic, and well done.
So who are this year's nominees?
Bad Grandpa-Stephen Prouty
Dallas Buyers Club-Adruitha Lee, and Robin Mathews
The Long Ranger-Joel Harlow, Gloria Pasqua-Casny
Bad Grandpa received a nomination because of the transformation of Johnny Knoxville into the central character of well, Bad Grandpa. This makeup is solid work, but was a the surprise nominee of the bunch.
Dallas Buyers Club has made headlines recently citing the fact that the makeup work itself only cost 250 dollars, which is an amazing feat, the work is actually well done, and even the hair styling in this film blends a unique variety of work.
The Lone Ranger has the the honor of being a Razzie and Oscar nominee, the transformation of Johnny Depp into Tonto, and other makeup, and hair styling is probably some of the best work of the year.
Who Will Win/Should Win
The Best Picture winner, nominee has not always won this award, Titanic, Forrest Gump, Shakespeare in Love all lost this award. They also lost this award to films that focused heavily on makeup, Men in Black, Ed Wood, and Elizabeth respectively.
As this award has changed to be about makeup and hair styling there is one film, which stands out, and thats Dallas Buyers Club, but do not underestimate The Lone Ranger simply because its a Razzie nominee. How the Grinch Stole Christmas won this award. At the end of the day it looks like an easy win for Dallas Buyers Club.
Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club
Spoiler: The Lone Ranger
If I had a vote: Dallas Buyers Club