State of the Oscar Race 2013: Which of the Many Best Actor Candidates Make the Cut?

Yesterday's Independent Spirit Award Nominations proved one fact, there are so many great performances from male leads this year that there had to be six nominees.  The six nominees are Bruce Dern for Nebraska, Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave, Oscar Isaacs for Inside Llewyn Davis, Michael B. Jordan for Fruitvale Station, Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club, and Robert Redford for All is Lost.

Looking at this list of six most folks, including myself would go wow, this would be a great line-up for Oscar, and they and I would be right.  There is just one or well a few minor problems, and they include: Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips, Forrest Whitaker for Lee Daniels' The Butler, Christian Bale in Out of the Furnace or American Hustle, Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street or even The Great Gatsby, and the bigger long shots Idris Elba for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Joaquin Phoenix for Her, and Ben Stiller for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.  That is 15 possible candidates, and astounding.

Let's look at Independent Spirit Award Nominees past track record, meaning the last 5 years, or even 10 before that the amount of crossover between minimal.

2012

Only Bradley Cooper was nominated for both Oscar and and the Independent Spirit Award (ISA), but he did not win either John Hawkes who was a strong contender to be nominated, but missed out because of Joaquin Phoenix.  Hawkes won the Spirit Award.  Of the five nominees Cooper and Hawkes were the only strong contenders.

2011

Jean Dujardin won the ISA and the Oscar for Best Actor for The Artist, this rarely happens, but could happen again this year. Dujardin and Demian Bichir were the only two nominated for the ISA, and Oscar.  The only other nominee for the ISA who had a possibility of being nominated was Ryan Gosling for Driver, but the Academy appeared to hate this film.

2010

James Franco was the only person nominated for ISA, and Oscar of the five nominees; he won the ISA, but lost Oscar to Colin Firth.  None of the other four contenders were ever "serious" contenders for Oscar.

2009

Jeff Bridges won the Oscar and the ISA for Crazy Heart.  The only other person nominated for both ISA and Oscar was Colin Firth for A Single Man.  None of the other three men were "serious" contenders.

2008

If you want to find a year similar to to 2013, where ISA, and the Oscars line-up was 2008.  4 of the 5 nominees were nominated at both, and they were Sean Penn in Milk (who won the Oscar) Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler (won the ISA), Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker, and Richard Jenkins for The Visitor.  I could see a similar situation to this happening this year, 4 of the five nominees come from this line-up, while two are snubbed.

Let's look at this year's ISA nominees:

Locks:
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave
Robert Redford-All is Lost
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club

Ejiofor and Redford are the two top contenders at the moment, but watch out for Matthew McConaughey his performance in Dallas Buyers Club is the thing Oscar performances are made of!

Near Lock:
Bruce Dern-Nebraska

Dern is almost the next closest thing as a lock in this category, with his buddies like Nicholson and his daughter Laura Dern championing him, he can/will be a strong contender to not only be an Oscar nominee, but a surprise winner.

Longshots:
Oscar Isaacs-Inside Llewyn Davis
Michael B. Jordan-Fruitvale Station

Isaacs and Jordan are the newcomers of this group, they have critically acclaimed performances, but breaking into this category as relative new comers is going to be tough.

Who takes the fifth spot of the non-ISA contenders?

Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips-The film just made 100 million and he is getting rave reviews for his performance.  The thing working against him is that people may just nominate him in supporting for Saving Mr. Banks.

Forrest Whitaker-Lee Daniels' The Butler-The film is going to better with Oscar voters than critics, and with Weinstein Company behind the film I can't imagine it not getting more than one acting nomination  Whitaker has won before, is the movie out of sight out of mind?

Christian Bale-Out of the Furnace or American Hustle-If he was going to get nominated my money would be on Hustle, but in this tough year his performance and weight gain may be overlooked.

Leonardo DiCaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street or The Great Gatsby-Wolf has not been seen by anyone, and DiCaprio is always a dark horse especially in a Scorsese film.  Gatsby is only a contender in the technical categories.

At the moment my prediction for Best Actor is:
Bruce Dern-Nebraska

Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club

Robert Redford-All is Lost

Anything is possible in this category, but I only see one of these men losing out, if any.  The truth of the matter is that Oscar should take a note from the ISA nominees, and have 6 nominated performances.

Pretty Boys and Oscar: Where Have all the Hot Men Gone?

Throughout the many years I have followed the Oscars and become an award show junky, there has been one fact that was evident, Oscar is not a huge fan of the "pretty boys."  Who are the pretty boys you ask?  Well you could also define these "pretty boys" as the attractive leading men of their time.  Throughout the year men like Cary Grant, Robert Redford,  Tom Cruise, Brad Pitt,  (and many more) would fit into this category.

Throughout the years award show expert Tom O'Neil (from goldderby.com) has cited this to be a fact, that for some reason the Oscar voters do not crown the heart throbs.  Tom has a point, and while I have never been in 100 percent agreement with the theory, the proof is in the pudding.  I am going to use the men listed  above to talk about their history with Oscar.

Cary Grant was seen as a heart throb, the leading man of his time; he not only did films like Philadelphia Story, but did some other great dramatic films like Charade, Notorious, and North by Northwest.  Grant was nominated for two Academy Awards in the Lead Actor Category, and the films were Penny Serenade (1942) and None but the Lonely Heart (1945).  Grant did not win for either film, but he did an Honorary Oscar in 1970 four years after his last credited role.

Perhaps Grant is the first example of some of the reasons the "heart throb" is never taken seriously.  Cary Grant reminds me of a modern day George Clooney he is charming and suave, and a lot of his work takes on blended comedic/dramatic elements.  Comedy is rarely honored at the Oscars.  Grant is the only one on this specific list who would fit that mold.  The other reason Grant missed out on nominations for some of his most famous works like North by Northwest, Notorious, and Charade, was because throughout the years there has been a bias against genre films.  The Academy has gotten better with this but grant could or should have been nominated for one of these films, if not them then Philadelphia Story where two of his co-stars were nominated and one of them one.

The perfect modern example of the "pretty boy" is Brad Pitt.  Pitt hit the silver screen in 1991 with a small role in Thelma and Louise, the role focused on his good looks, and focused on Pitt as a sex symbol.  This status continued, and Pitt was known as the celebrity straight men would consider s

Let's look at Grant's co-star Jimmy Stewart who wont the Oscar for Philadelphia Story.  Stewart never was seen as a "looker" he was tall skinny bean pole who was a great leading man, but was never considered to the ladies or man's choice in regards to looks.  While many may look at Grant today and think the same thing; he was in fact one of the "studs" of his time.

Let's transition from the end of Cary Grant's career when he was older and won his Honorary Academy Award to one of the major "heart throbs" of the late 60s, 70s, and early 80s. Robert Redford.  Redford was in numerous films popular and well received films during this time Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969), The Way We Were (1973), The Sting (1973), Three Days at the Condor (1975), All the President's Men (1976), The Natural (1984), and Out of Africa (1985).

Throughout his years as an Actor Redford was only nominated once for acting Oscar for The Sting.  Of the films that received Oscar nominations (beyond The Sting) most of his female co-stars received nominations while Redford did not, Barbara Streisand (The Way We Were), Jane Alexander (All the President's Men), Glenn Close (The Natural), and Meryl Streep (Out of Africa).  You have to think that as the lead in these films Redford deserved some recognition for his acting, but he was never honored in this field.

I can already hear the dissension from folk saying "But wait didn't Robert Redford win an Oscar in 1980  Directing Ordinary People?  The answer is yes, but this started a trend where the Academy Awards loved to honor those actors who stepped behind the camera rather than showing off their pretty face on screen all the time.  Warren Beatty (who was also another heart throb) fit this model just won year later winning Best Director for Reds (1981).  Redford's leading man looks proved that he could never be taken seriously in front of the camera, but only behind the scenes.

After Redford the next example of a "pretty boy" was the young, and talented Tom Cruise.  Cruise not only made great quality films, but set the example of a box office super star.  Cruise has not only had major box office success with films like Top Gun, and the Mission Impossible series, but has been nominated for three acting Oscars.  Cruises has two Best Actor nominations for Born on the Fourth of July (1989), and Jerry Maguire (1996), and Supporting Actor nomination for Magnolia (1999).  While Cruise never had a shot for his first two nominations; he lost to two of the best working actors today Daniel Day-Lewis in My Left Foot (1989), and Geoffrey Rush in Shine (1996). Cruise had his best shot to win for Magnolia; he was the favorite with many critics wins, and a win at the Golden Globes, but eventually lost to Michael Caine in The Cider House Rules.

Cruise is started the de-glam of the pretty boy, which helped nab more acting trophies.  Born on the Fourth of July is a great example, where he transforms himself from an optimistic youth to an angry Vietnam War veteran in a wheel chair.  Magnolia also showed a different side to Cruise proving he has the chops to pull off darker material.  Throughout the years Cruise has gained attention from these "de-glam" roles, like his role as the fat movie producer in Tropic Thunder.  Cruise is a solid modern day example of the Academy still never taking the pretty boy seriously, especially with his loss for Magnolia, Cruise may have to wait until much later in his career, the way his co-star Paul Newman (another good example of his looks preventing him from a win) won for Color of Money.

Brad Pitt is the best example of the modern day heart throb.  Pitt's first major role on the silver screen was in 1991's Thelma and Louise.  While Pitt's role was small, the film focused on his ripped body, getting women and men to consider him as an object of affection.  Pitt would forever be known as sex symbol, getting even straight men to consider going to bed with him.  While over the years Pitt has proven himself more than a pretty face getting some great dramatic and comedic roles, and proving he has true talent.

Like Cruise Pitt has only been nominated for three acting trophies at the Oscars, one Supporting Actor Oscar nomination, and two Lead Actor Oscar nominations.  Pitt's first nomination came in 1995 for the film 12 Monkeys (Best Supporting Actor); he took away all the frills of his looks and "de-glammed" for this role.  Like with Cruise Pitt won the Golden Globe for this film but lost the Oscar to Kevin Spacey. Pitt's Lead Actor Oscar nominations came much later in his acting career, first in 2009 for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and then in 2012 for Moneyball.  The majority of his award show attention from the Oscars has come as he has aged and reached his late 40s.

These four examples are just the icing on the cake, there is Leonardo DiCaprio who was snubbed for Titanic (1997) while co-star Kate Winslet was nominated, Ryan Gosling snubbed for both Driver and The Ides of March (2012), and many more.  These are two current working actors who have recieved Oscar nominations, but have never been honored.  Are their looks to blame?  Ar Oscar voters jealous?  These men have turned in some great performances, but none have them have made it to the Oscar podium for an acting win.

George Clooney is one of the rare cases of "heart throbs" who have won Oscars for an acting performance.  Clooney did not however win in the Lead Actor Category he won for his "supporting "de-glammed" performance in Syriana.  Clooney was also nominated in two other categories this year Best Director (he was up against Ang Lee), and Best Original Screenplay (he was up against Crash-the eventual Best Picture winner).  Academy voters knew they needed to honor him so they picked the least competitive category.

This year's Best Actor race will provide the opportunity for two men who fit within this category to be nominated Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), and Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook).  At the moment neither stands a chance of beating the method acting of Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln.  Maybe being a "pretty boy" is enough, but these men deserve their due, and should not have to wait until their looks fade, the way many actors have to wait.