Jumping the Shark Part 4: A New Hope.... to Improve

This part of of my "jumping the shark" entry is going to be a little different.  In the past I called for the end of shows, which had moved past their prime in more ways than one.  Most of the shows in parts one, two, and three have been cancelled, or on the road to ending.  My goal with this entry is to push hope that these few shows will bounce back, and achieve greatness once again.  I am not calling for these shows to cancelled, I am just challenging them to think about their current state, and the direction they are heading.  Be mindful of of spoiler midfield!

Community (2009-Present)-NBC  Dan Harmon is back! I removed this show from a previous list, because there is hope with Harmon back that this show will climb out of the abyss from the wreckage of the fourth season to be the show that it once was.  If I were Harmon I would make the fourth season part of one of the alternate time lines, or something more clever.  Dan Harmon was the genius behind the show, and when NBC canned him I was nervous.  The cast stated that in productions things were feeling and looking the same even without Harmon, but a true fan can see this show has lost something, the fire which made it the wittiest, independent show on television.  The plots are still outlandish, and there are still elements of the original Community, but the show has lost its edge.  The new show runners pulled a Britta, but with Harmon back I have hope this show can be better.

Update: Guess what NBC, bringing Dan Harmon made this show better, who would have thought that the creative mind behind the show, would have done that, sarcasm intended!  From GI Jeff to MeowMeowBeenz, and getting rid of Pierce this show is back, and better than the previous season.  6 seasons and a movie!

Downton Abbey (2010-Present)-PBS/BBC-Season one, or series one was epic, and great.  Series two was solid, but not as great.  Series three was depressing, and just did not hold my interest the way the show has in the past.  The fourth series/season is currently playing in the UK, but it will air starting on January 5th in the States.  My hope is that the show will be able to capture the magic even with Matthew gone.  The love story of Matthew and Mary was what made season three watchable.  These two characters had finally gotten together, but at the end of the third season Matthew dies.  My hope is that the show captures the evolving era well, and the way it influences the traditions/societal norms of the residents of Downton Abbey.

Update: Oh wait, what's that I just barely woke up after watching the most boring season of this show. The only character who even made it worth watching was Jim Carter's Mr Carson.  Raping Anna was pointless.  Julian Fellowes with Robert Altman is drowning in his lack of creativity.  Time to end things, there is no hope.

Girls (2012-Present)-HBO-Season two ended on odd, but interesting note.  Hannah is her own worst enemy; she wants to be a writer, but can't get there.  I know people find this show, and the characters vapid, but I look at it as an interesting sociological study on my generation.  With that said I can see this show faltering, and not lasting long, its niche.  My hope is that is that Lena Dunham continue to use her unique voice, but to not let it over power that natural occurrences within the series.

Update: Season 3 was great, and the finale showed Hannah growing in more ways than ever before.  Hannah reminds me of my Caitlin on many levels, Caitlin is a much better person though.  Should the show have ended here?  I often think shows should end while on top, and this show redeemed itself.  While the show got better I wonder if it should have ended this season.

Homeland (2011-Present)-Showtime One word, Dana. Enough already.  Fans of the show tell you they hate a character, and you give audiences more of her?  I am baffled on this one, fans of a show do not always know best, but in this instance they are correct.  While some of you may think I am as crazy as Carrie for putting this show on the list, there is something that has happened to this show post the episode entitled "Q&A" which have pushed this show on a slight downward spiral in quality.  The acting is great, and Mandy Patinkin is killing it; he is the reason I watch this show now.  I have faith in the show runners, that there is always a plan but the third episode of season entitled "Tower of David" was a clunker, a boring way to tie Carrie and Brody's story together.  A show can not always maintain a high level of quality, and I will stick by this show, but at the moment I am just holding out hope that the creative minds behind this show will push in the right direction.  Now Carrie is pregnant?  How did this not come out while she was being treated?

Update: Season 3 was a creative fail, but Brody is dead, does that mean things will get better? Probably not.  I like that this show can start from a fresh place in season 4, but is one more season enough for this show?  Probably, my prediction it ends at 5 or 6.

Mad Men (2007-Present)-AMC- Season 6 of Mad Men tackled the fall of Don Draper, as he became a shell of himself, losing touch with his suave nature, and becoming unable to hide who he truly has been all his life, Dick Whitfield.  The show also tackled the different civil rights movement well.  Beyond these things characters like Joan, and Peggy felt wasted.  The show felt more lost than usual, the writing less punchy.  The show seemed to spiral in the sense that it just felt like it went nowhere for most people.  I know I am not alone in the feeling that this last season of Mad Men was off.  Mad Men has one two part season left, much like Breaking Bad.  I hope Mad Men can end on top like Breaking Bad did.

No updates for Mad Men, still waiting for the premiere, which airs April 13th.  Critics were allowed to see the first episode only and the reactions have been mixed.  I have heard the general tone is good character development, no plot development.  Which is the shows biggest critique recently.  Only time will tell, but there are only 7 episodes, which could be tricky for this show.

Argo Wins Best Ensemble at SAG, Downton Abbey and Modern Family win on Television Side

Tonight Argo stepped even closer to a Best Picture win at the Academy Awards.  Argo has now won Best Picture at the Broadcast Film Critics Association, Golden Globes, Producer's Guild Awards, and here.  At this very moment I can feel many film critics and Oscar pundits switching their Lincoln Best Picture win to Argo.  One of the most intriguing things to me is if Argo wins Best Picture who wins Best Director?  I will be theorizing that one for a while.

In the other film categories Lincoln picked up two trophies one for Best Lead Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), and one for Supporting Actor (Tommy Lee Jones).  Day-Lewis has the Best Actor prize in the bag, and Tommy Lee Jones has a strong shot at the Best Supporting Actor award, but he was not there to accept, so look for missing Christoph Waltz to be a spoiler.

Jennifer Lawrence made the Best Actress category more interesting tonight beating Jessica Chastain, this puts Lawrence out front, but never count out any surprises although with Harvey Weinstein behind her campaign she has the best chance.  Anne Hathaway further proved that her dream she dreamt will come true winning Best Supporting Actress, and I like that she thanked her Dark Knight cast; she gave a much better speech.

On the television side the Comedy Winners remained as stale as day old bread.  Alec Baldwin and Tina Fey whom I love won for Best Actor and Actress, and obviously it was as a parting gift for their great work on 30 Rock.  Modern Family also won for a third year in a row, and while I love their ensemble there are so many other great ensembles out there.  I guess I am just glad Betty White did not win this year or else they would have been the exact same winners as last year.  Baldwin and Modern Family have won together for the last three years, sloppy!

In the mini-series or movie category rubber stamped winner Kevin Costner and Julianne Moore won.  Costner was not present, but neither were any of his competition.  I think this is the first time in all my years of watching award shows where not a single nominee in a category has shown up.

The drama categories finally shook things up for the television world.  Best Actor went to Bryan Cranston he beat out front runner Damien Lewis.  Claire Danes was not nominated last year, but won Best Actress last year.  Downton Abbey won Best Ensemble, and I loved watching the actress who plays Mrs. Hughes accept for the cast; she was too precious.

One of the highlights of the evening was watching Dick Van Dyke get his lifetime achievement award. In watching his film reel, and hearing beautiful but brief acceptance of the award it was a great moment in one of the more boring award shows.

Golden Globe Predictions: Television

Best Drama
Boardwalk Empire
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Homeland
The Newsroom

Homeland has the most buzz, and while it did not win last year, nor did it make a big splash last year, but the Golden Globes are all about the buzz, and Homeland has the best shot at winning.  Downton is the biggest spoiler.

Will Win and Should: Homeland
Spoiler: Downton Abbey

Best Drama Actor
Steve Buscemi-Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston-Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels-The Newsroom
John Hamm-Mad Men
Damien Lewis-Homeland

Lewis scored big at Emmy Awards, and he should score an easy win here.  Daniels could spoil as the new kid on the block

Will and Should Win: Damien Lewis-Homeland
Spoiler-Jeff Daniels-The Newsroom

Best Drama Actress
Connie Britton-Nashville
Glenn Close-Damages
Claire Danes-Homeland
Michelle Dockery-Downton Abbey
Julianna Marguilles-The Good Wife

Another Homeland vs. Downton race, Dockery is the best chance as a spoiler against Danes, but look for Danes to win with ease.

Will and Should Win: Claire Danes-Homeland
Spoiler-Michelle Dockery-Downton Abbey

Best Comedy/Musical Series
The Big Bang Theory
Episodes
Girls
Modern Family
Smash

The Globes love musicals, but this is Smash's only nomination.  They have shown Modern Family a lot of love, but I think last year was the last.  Girls is the hot new show and will win.

Will and Should Win-Girls
Spoiler-Modern Family

Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical
Alec Baldwin-30 Rock
Louis C.K.-Louie
Don Cheedle-House of Lies
Matt LeBlanc-Episodes
Jim Parsons-The Big Bang Theory

LeBlance has taken this taken this trophy before, and could repeat, but my money is on the hit comedian Louis C.K.

Will and Should: Louis C.K.-Louie
Spoiler-Matt LeBlanc-Episodes

Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy
Zooey Deschanel-New Girl
Lena Dunham-Girls
Tina Fey-30 Rock
Julia Louis Drefuss-Veep
Amy Poehler-Parks and Recreation

One of the tougher television categories to predict, but much like Sex and the City, I think Dunham is going to be the reigning queen of this award because of her hip new show.  Look for host Amy Poehler to be a spoiler.

Will and Should Win-Lena Dunham
Spoiler-Amy Poehler-Parks and Recreation

Best Mini-Series or Movie-Game Change
Best Actor in a Mini-Series or Television Movie-Kevin Costner-Hattfield's & McCoys
Best Actress in a Mini-Series or Television Movie-Julianne Moore-Game Change
Best Supporting Actor in a Television Drama, Comedy/Musical, Mini-Series or Movie-Ed Harris-Game Change
Best Supporting Actress in a Television Drama, Comedy/Musical, Mini-Series or Movie-Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey

Modern Family, Homeland, and Downton Abbey Lead the Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) Nominations

The Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) Television nominations typically dishearten me, namely because of the way they combine categories, and nominate much more reptatively than other award shows (even the Emmy Awards).  Sentimentality often wins out, and to me that makes no sense.

This year's drama nominations are pretty solid, while they always miss the peripheral shows and performances, these nominees make sense.  Homeland and Downton Abbey lead the pack with 3 nominations each.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

Boardwalk Empire

Breaking Bad

Downton Abbey

Homeland

Mad Men

This was a predictable, but great set of nominees, SAG always know what they are doing with the drama nominees.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
STEVE BUSCEMI / Enoch “Nucky” Thompson – “BOARDWALK EMPIRE” (HBO)
BRYAN CRANSTON / Walter White – “BREAKING BAD” (AMC)
JEFF DANIELS / Will McAvoy – “THE NEWSROOM” (HBO)
JON HAMM / Don Draper – “MAD MEN” (AMC)
DAMIAN LEWIS / Nicholas Brody – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)

The Newsroom scored a nomination! Proving the show has respect (so greatful to that).  I was somewhat surprised Peter Dinklage did not grab a nomination, but otherwise these were solid but predictable nominees.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
CLAIRE DANES / Carrie Mathison – “HOMELAND” (Showtime)
MICHELLE DOCKERY / Lady Mary Crawley – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)
JESSICA LANGE / Sister Jude – “AMERICAN HORROR STORY: ASYLUM” (FX)
JULIANNA MARGULIES / Alicia Florrick – “THE GOOD WIFE” (CBS)
MAGGIE SMITH / Violet, Dowager Countess of Grantham – “DOWNTON ABBEY” (PBS)

Downton Abbey took two spots!  Way to to go to Michelle Dockery for besting the likes of Glenn Close; she was the surprise nominee in this bunch.

As usual the comedy nominations are an incredible disappointment.  Modern Family has the most nominations with 4, closely followed by 30 Rock with 3.   

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

30 Rock

The Big Bang Theory 

Glee 

Modern Family

Nurse Jackie 

The Office 

Glee, 30 Rock Nurse Jack, and The Office, over Veep, Parks and Recreation, New Girl, Happy Endings, and The Middle?  30 Rock and The Office were pick because it's there last season, but come on these shows are past their prime.  Glee's nomination is the biggest joke, they misuse their ensemble episode after episode.  Modern Family will win this award once again.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
ALEC BALDWIN / Jack Donaghy – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
TY BURRELL / Phil Dunphy – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
LOUIS C.K. / Louie – “LOUIE” (FX)
JIM PARSONS / Sheldon Cooper – “THE BIG BANG THEORY” (CBS)
ERIC STONESTREET / Cameron Tucker – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)

Glad Louis C.K. finally made this list; he is the only new nominee, the rest have been to the rodeo before, and if Alec Baldwin wins again I may throw my television out the window.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
EDIE FALCO / Jackie Peyton – “NURSE JACKIE” (Showtime)
TINA FEY / Liz Lemon – “30 ROCK” (NBC)
AMY POEHLER / Leslie Knope – “PARKS AND RECREATION” (NBC)
SOFIA VERGARA / Gloria Delgado-Pritchett – “MODERN FAMILY” (ABC)
BETTY WHITE / Elka Ostrovsky – “HOT IN CLEVELAND” (TV Land)

Glad Poehler made the cut, surprised Falco is here, she and the show do not fit the usual pattern of nominees.  I can't believe more people were not predicting White after she won last year.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

KEVIN COSTNER / “Devil Anse” Hatfield – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS” (History)
WOODY HARRELSON / Steve Schmidt – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
ED HARRIS / John McCain – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
CLIVE OWEN / Ernest Hemingway – “HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN“ (HBO)
BILL PAXTON / Randall McCoy – “HATFIELDS & McCOYS” (History)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
NICOLE KIDMAN / Martha Gellhorn – “HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN” (HBO)
JULIANNE MOORE / Sarah Palin – “GAME CHANGE” (HBO)
CHARLOTTE RAMPLING / Eva Delectorskaya – “RESTLESS” (Sundance Channel)
SIGOURNEY WEAVER / Elaine Barrish Hammond – “POLITICAL ANIMALS” (USA)
ALFRE WOODARD / Ouiser – “STEEL MAGNOLIAS” (Lifetime)

Emmy Award's Drama Series Submissions (2011-2012)

I posted the Comedy Series submissions over a week ago, but the drama categories have not fully released their episodes.  I am tired on waiting to hear what Mad Men has submitted in the Drama series category, so here I go with my thoughts/predictions at this moment.

Best Drama Series

BOARDWALK EMPIRE * Season 2 * HBO  
Tape A: "21" & "Ourselves Alone"
Tape B: "Peg of Old" & "Two Boats and a Lifeguard"
Tape C: "Under God's Power She Flourishes" & "To the Lost"

BREAKING BAD * Season 4 * AMC
Tape A: "Box Cutter" & "Salud"
Tape B: "Problem Dog" & "Crawl Space"
Tape C: "End Times" & "Face Off"

DOWNTON ABBEY * Season 2 * PBS
Tape A: "Episode 1"
Tape B: "Episode 6"
Tape C: "Episode 7"

GAME OF THRONES * Season 2 * HBO
Tape A: "What is Dead May Never Die" & "Garden of Bones"
Tape B: "The Old Gods and the New" & "A Man Without Honor"
Tape C: "Blackwater" & "Valar Morghulis"

HOMELAND * Season 1 * SHOWTIME
Tape A: "Pilot" & "Grace"
Tape B: "The Good Soldier" & "The Weekend"
Tape C: "Marine One"

MAD MEN * Season 5 * AMC 
Tape A: "Signal 30" & "Far Away Places"
Tape B: "At the Codfish Ball" & "The Other Woman"
Tape C: "Commissions and Fees" & "The Phantom"

I grew tired of waiting for Mad Men's tape submissions, but this four time winner is in the game no matter what they submit.  While I agree Mad Men is the most accessible of the shows  I do not think it will become the most winning show of all time after an underwhelming season.  Breaking Bad is currently airing, and the episodes are on fire, Mad Men used to have this during the Emmy voting, and it help them incredibly.  I think Breaking Bad or Downton will take the crown.  Downton is an an incredibly impressive show, and feels so important, the same way Mad Men does.  This is a tight three way.
UPDATE: Mad Men submitted incredibly well!!  They truly have a great shot at breaking the record and winning their fifth trophy in this category.

1-Downton Abbey
2-Mad Men
3-Breaking Bad
4-Homeland
5-Boardwalk Empire
6-Game of Thrones

BEST DRAMA ACTOR: 
Hugh Bonneville - Downton Abbey ("Episode 7")
Steve Buscemi - Boardwalk Empire ("Two Boats and a Lifeguard")
Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad ("Crawl Space")
Michael C. Hall - Dexter ("Nebraska")
Jon Hamm - Mad Men ("The Other Woman")
Damian Lewis - Homeland ("Marine One")

Cranston for the fourpeat with a great episode, and no Kelsey Grammer I think he has this one locked up again.  Damien Lewis could be a spoiler; he has a great tape, and could carry the popularity of one of the few shows in their first year to be successful.  The rest of the men have outside shots, last year's winner Kyle Chandler was a shock, although his tape was great and won the writing award. Everyone but Hall has a shot because he submitted the worst episode of Dexter EVER!

1-Bryan Cranston
2-Damien Lewis
3-Steve Buscemi
4-John Hamm
5-Hugh Bonneville
6-Michael C. Hall

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS:
Kathy Bates - Harry's Law ("Onward and Upward")
Glenn Close - Damages ("I've Done Way Too Much For This Girl")
Claire Danes - Homeland ("The Vest")
Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey ("Episode 7")
Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife ("Parenting Made Easy")
Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men ("The Other Woman")

I think Danes submission is a weak one, and she has always been the favorite to win this award this past year, in my opinion.  Look out for David E. Kelley's Emmy machine to potentially steal Kathy Bates her first ever Emmy.  Kelley produces Emmy magic for his stars, but her show was cancelled, which can work against her.  The only other threat to Danes is Marguilles, but this is not her year.

1-Claire Danes
2-Kathy Bates
3-Julianne Marguilles
4-Glen Close-Damages
5-Elisabeth Moss
6-Michelle Dockery

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Jim Carter - Downton Abbey ("Episode 2")
Brendan Coyle - Downton Abbey ("Episode 7")
Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones ("Blackwater")
Giancarlo Esposito - Breaking Bad ("Hermanos")
Jared Harris - Mad Men ("Commissions and Fees")
Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad ("End Times")

A fight between the Breaking Bad guys and Jared Harris.  Of the tapes I would say Aaron Paul has the best tape, one interesting statistic stands in his way, no person has repeated a win in this category in 16 years!  Do the voters know this, probably not as well award show gurus.  Esposito was the talk of the season and he has a great tape as well, so I think he has a better shot than Paul, but there is one other factor, Jared Harris.  Harris is a first time nominee for the show, and has a much better story line than John Slattery ever had.  It would be ironic if Harris were the shows first win because he is no longer with the show.  

1-Giancarlo Esposito
2-Jared Harris
3-Aaron Paul
4-Brendan Coyle
5-Peter Dinklage
6-Jim Carter

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Christine Baranski - The Good Wife ("Alienation of Affection")
Joanne Froggatt - Downton Abbey ("Episode 7")
Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad ("Cornered")
Christina Hendricks - Mad Men ("The Other Woman")
Archie Panjabi - The Good Wife ("The Dream Team")
Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey ("Episode 1")

After watching the tapes (which help) look at Margo Martindale's win this race is down to two women.  Joanne Froggatt, and Christina Hendricks.  Factor in the other anomalies of this category like Blythe Danner winning two years in a row, and Diane Wiest winning, and you have to throw in Maggie Smith, and Christine Baranski.  How do the dice shake up?  Will Hendricks score Mad Men's first win?  This is one of the tougher categories on the drama side to predict, with so many variant factors.  Smith is great, and she did win last year I could see this counting against her; she also never shows up, which does not effect things most of the time, but watching Froggatt's excitment she will be campaigning. Hendricks has one of the best tapes she has ever had.  Right now my gut and heart is going with Hendricks, but Froggatt and Smith (by name) are nipping at her heals.

1-Christina Hendricks
2-Joannne Froggatt
3-Maggie Smith
4-Christine Baranski
5-Anna Gunn
6-Archie Panjabi

BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTOR:
Dylan Baker - The Good Wife ("Marthas and Caitlins")
Jeremy Davies - Justified ("Coalition")
Ben Feldman - Mad Men ("Dark Shadows")
Michael J. Fox - The Good Wife ("Parenting Made Easy")
Mark Margolis - Breaking Bad ("Face Off")
Jason Ritter - Parenthood ("Politics")

The Good Wife men will square off in the battle of who will win this award, my money is on Michael J. Fox, I think he will win here (Fallon in Guest Comedy).  Look out for Dylan Baker he is nipping on his heals, and Mark Margolis could be a spoiler.

Prediction: Michael J. Fox-The Good Wife

BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTRESS:
Joan Cusack - Shameless ("Can I Have a Mother")
Loretta Devine - Grey's Anatomy ("If Only You Were Lonely")
Julia Ormond - Mad Men ("The Phantom")
Martha Plimpton - The Good Wife ("The Dream Team")
Jean Smart - Harry's Law ("The Rematch")
Uma Thurman - Smash ("Tech")

Patricia Clarkson is the only actress who has won this award for playing the same character, and her win came 4 years a part from each other.  Can Loretta Devine break this pattern; she has a great shot.  Truth be told as a Good Wife junkie I would love to see Plimpton and Fox win together, but that won't happen.  David E, Kelley is an Emmy machine so look for Jean Smart another Emmy favorite to be a strong possibility, in fact I am predicting her at the moment.  

Prediction: Jean Smart-Harry's Law

BEST DRAMA SERIES DIRECTING
Tim Van Patten, "Boardwalk Empire" - "To the Lost"
Vince Gilligan, "Breaking Bad" - "Face Off"
Brian Percival, "Downton Abbey" - "Episode 7"
Michael Cuesta, "Homeland" - "Pilot"
Phil Abraham, "Mad Men" - "The Other Woman"

Despite the fact that "Blackwater" from Game of Thrones was snubbed, I think that this is a fight between Vince Gilligan's "Face Off" and the Homeland "Pilot."  Mad Men has shockingly never won this category, but this is not going to be their year here.  I think I am going to give the slight edge to Breaking Bad, but watch out for Homeland, this is a tight race.

Prediction-Breaking Bad "Face Off"

BEST DRAMA SERIES WRITING
Julian Fellowes, "Downton Abbey" - "Episode 7"
Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon, and Gideon Raff, "Homeland" - "Pilot"
Semi Chellas and Matthew Weiner, "Mad Men" - "The Other Woman"
Andre Jacquemetton and Maria Jacquemetton, "Mad Men" - "Commissions and Fees"
Semi Chellas and Matthew Weiner, "Mad Men" - "Far Away Places"

Mad Men had won this award for its first three seasons, but lost last year for one of their best written episodes ever, The Suitcase.  "The Other Woman" has the best shot here the help them reclaim this category, but I think Fellowes will claim the writing category again this year in the drama series race.

Prediction-Downton Abbey "Episode 7" 

2012 Drama Emmy Nomination Predictions

This year there will be a lot of transition within the major drama and comedy categories.  Predicting all of the nominees in each category is going to be as hard as it was a few years ago when the Emmy's went to the panel system, and they had some out of left field nominees.

In the drama categories not many shows within their first year will contend, the biggest contender is Homeland, and it should grab a nomination in Outstanding Drama Series, and have three acting nominations, Mandy Patinkin may be left out.

Downton Abbey is new to this category, but was an Emmy winner in the mini-series/movie category over the most nominated series Mildred Pierce.  My favorite Emmy expert Tom O'Neil has the best logic for why this film will get into the drama category, it will satisfy the snob vote.  Plus there is history that works like this do incredibly well, from Upstairs/Downstairs to Cranford.

One show that may finally disappear from these categories all together is Dexter.  Michael C. Hall and the team from this show were picked out of habit last year.  No disrespect to the fine people who work on this show, but Dexter lost it's edge after they killed Julie Benz.

With new shows being added to the game,  and old shows like Justified and Sons of Anarchy having great seasons the Emmy voters have a tough call on their hands within this category.  Will these F/X gems make the cut?  Maybe Justified, but doubtful.

One of the most interesting points this year is how basic cable/major networks will far come nominations time.  The only major network show that has a chance at a Best Drama nomination is The Good Wife.  The show had a strong season (even in it's third), but was it enough in this competitive race?  The show has always grabbed 12 nominations or so, and is a major favorite within the acting branch.  Can Wife take out one of the two HBO series Boardwalk Empire or Game of Thrones?

In the battle of Boardwalk verses Thrones, after thinking about it time and time again, I have to give the edge to Boardwalk.  Boardwalk won the most creative arts Emmys ever last year with seven, but only took home one on awards night for obvious favorite Martin Scorsese, in the drama directing category.  The show had the most nominations 17, but will Boardwalk end up like Six Feet Under in season three, dead on arrival?  Thrones is a genre show, and if you are not a fan of the show understanding the lore is quite difficult, the same way understanding Lost was difficult.  Lost did not earn an Emmy nomination for Outstanding Drama Series during its second year.  Thrones was nipping at the heals of Boardwalk last year with 13 nominations, but only won one Emmy at the creative arts Emmys (which is should have won more), and Outstanding Supporting Actor for Peter Dinklage.

With all these what if scenarios the real question is who ends up being nominated this year, so here is my best guess.

Best Drama Series
Breaking Bad
Boardwalk Empire
Downton Abbey
The Good Wife
Homeland
Mad Men

Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Steve Buscemi-Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston-Breaking Bad
Kelsey Grammer-Boss
John Hamm-Mad Men
Damien Lewis-Homeland
Timothy Olyphant-Justified

Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Kathy Bates-Harry's Law
Glen Close-Damages
Claire Danes-Homeland
Julianna Marguilles-The Good Wife
Elizabeth McGovern-Downton Abbey
Elisabeth Moss-Mad Men

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Alan Cumming-The Good Wife
Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones
Giancarlo Esposito-Breaking Bad
Neil McDonough-Justified
Aaron Paul-Breaking Bad
John Slattery-Mad Men

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Christine Baranski-The Good Wife
Christina Hendricks-Mad Men
Anna Gunn-Breaking Bad
Kelly McDonald-Boardwalk Empire
Archie Panjabi-The Good Wife
Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey

I am only going to predict the main five, the rest are usually more off the wall, and I am predicting today because I will be at a retreat until Thursday morning so I will miss out on my last minute predictions, but this is what I think at the moment.  Game of Thrones could make it into the best drama race, and there are a lot of variables while predicting this. Most nominations will go to Mad Men again, but their total will be lower. What do you think?

Dream Ballot: Outstanding Drama Series

Finally the main even is here!  All of the other drama series categories have built up to this, the dream nominees for Outstanding Drama Series.  This year most of the shows are in their second season, there were few first year shows that lived up to the hype.  Most of the shows in their first year fell flat, which is unusual.  This just proves that shows are maintaining strong quality throughout the years as opposed to failing to deliver quality television. (Next up is the comedy categories).


Breaking Bad (AMC)-Like a good wine this show gets better with age.  Like throughout most of the other seasons there is an incredible buildup, and show runner and series creator Vince Gilligan continues to push things to a constant build up.  In season four Gus's story line was working towards its peak and the showdown between and Walt and Gus came to a head.  Gus was a brilliant creation; he started out as this simple restaurant manager/drug dealer, in the same way Walt was school teacher/drug deal and manufacturer.  The tension between Walt and Gus was at a high and this drove the drama.  The shows rich intense feeling mixed with the gripping "war on drugs" vs. battle over drug territory and family struggles makes this easily one of the best drama series of all time.

Downton Abbey (PBS/BBC) Season two shows a war torn Europe during World War I, and the way the family, and the servants lives changes a result of having to deal with everything.  The show has this mystical quality that moves time forward quicker than most shows, and doesn't mice words only creates a show with a terrific family dynamic, and also talks about issues of their time.  Julian Fellows who created the show which was originally considered a mini-series has grown into a phenomena.  Losing Mr. Bates for a time was heartbreaking.  Watching Mary actually fall in love was beautiful (even if it is her relative), and watching Maggie Smith in anything brightens my day. 

Game of Thrones (HBO)-The episode entitled "Blackwater" is enough to make this show a nominee this year.  While the second season was just under the level of quality for the first season the show still continues to deliver week after week making the battle for the iron throne a must watch event.  The series does not use major star power, but rather the story of these different families battling for power, and uses this compelling narrative to hook you in week after week.  Characters like Tyrion Lannister played by Emmy winner Peter Dinklage command the screen with great acting and indelible wit.  The show has also created some of the best female characters I have ever seen from young Arya Stark who fights onward as a young girl to no longer be deemed a lady but wants to be a warrior to Cersei Lannister the Lady Macbeth type female.  This show is brilliantly run/written by creators David Bennioff and D.B. Weiss, on a side note HBO get over the GW head on a stick thing it was a joke.

The Good Wife (CBS)- The only network television series that comes close to making this list is The Good Wife.  The show has one of the best casts on television and utilizes their guest stars better than any show I have seen in recent history.  This season our heroine Alicia Florick stepped out from her husbands shadow, and worked on her for a change; she bucked her normal careful behavior and finally owned up to her feelings  for her boss and partner at her law firm Will Gardner.  The relationship eventually faded but Will had his own things to deal with, and was under grand jury investigation and almost lost his license to bar license.  The show is consistently the one of the best I watch, and they never become heavy handed while incorporating their procedural aspect into the story lines of their characters.  Creators Michelle and Robert King should be proud they have the best network television drama.

Homeland (Showtime)- The only series in its first year to rise above the rest and fit into this category. Every episode of Homeland had me on the edge of my seat, and built the tension masterfully.  Claire Danes and Damien Lewis are one of the most dynamic/tragic duos to grace the small screen.  Their game of cat and mouse in the shadow of the world of intelligence investigation, terrorism, and and the general fear in today's society is hard to hate. The show fires on all cyllinders, there was a not an episode where you can sit on your laurels, something is always happening, and writing and direction help to make this one of the best shows of the year.  The supporting cast including Many Patinkin, and Morena Baccarin also shine as they are part of the worlds of the lead characters and have to struggle with dark and twisted destinies.

Mad Men (AMC)-The advertising agency was missing from television for about 18 months, and faithful viewers were excited to see everyone back in action.  After five seasons the shows quality has dipped, but even with the quality dipping ever so slightly it's still must see television, and one of the best shows.  Don was married to Meghan (one of the shows most hated characters, ever), Peggy was fighting back more, Roger was taking revelatory  LSD trips, Pete got punched in the face and slept with Rory Gilmore, Lane played with the companies money to a dangerous level, and the star of the season Joan Harris fought back with her husband who returned home from war, and sold her body to become a partner at the firm.  Doesn't sound boring, it wasn't, but this year the show took an evolutionary path, and made new steps in many directions.  The show stands on solid ground, and I am ready for it to be back already.

Dream Emmy Ballot: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

This past week I announced my dream nominees for Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series, and now on to the leading ladies.  This year provided some beautifully brilliant moments for women in drama.  From a CIA operative with bipolar disorder to a young lady of noble blood attempting to find her place in 1910s society, all the way to being the matriarch of a motorcycle gang.  Here are my dream nominees for the Emmy awards.

Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison in Homeland-Danes has always been one of the most dependable actress working.  From My So Called Life to her film work to this present day series she commands any screen.  In Homeland Danes goes 0 to 60 in moment.  Carrie is a CIA operative with bipolar disorder bent on proving a soldier who has returned home is an operative for Al-Queda.  Danes intensity masked with vulnerability is sheer brilliance and one of the strongest leading performances in years.

Michelle Dockery as Lady Mary Crawley in Downton Abbey-Lady Mary Crawley is one brash lady; she is more than just a woman of noble blood, she is a woman who breaks societal norms of the time and looks to want to find love rather than convenience.  Mary will fall in love one minute and within the next shoot herself in the foot by challenging the patriarchal authority of the man who feels she is stronger than the man.  Watching her is a beautiful case study in brash behavior and wonderful acting.

Julianna Marguilles as Alicia Florek in The Good Wife-After 3 years as the housewife turned lawyer Mrs. Florek still continues to storm the gates, and is one of the best female characters on television.  Marguilles handled a betrayal from her best friend, breaking the rules and choosing her own path by seeing Will, and insecurities about her career path and a challenging junior associate.  Marguilles still breaths fire into this role, and takes this character to different levels.

Elisabeth Moss as Peggy Olsen in Mad Men-Peggy has become one of the strongest female characters, and is a brilliant case study in character development.  Together Matthew Weiner and Moss have helped her grow from a study in a silence voice in the 60s to a woman who challenges the man, literally.  This season Peggy bucked familial tradition moving in with her long time boyfriend, and walked away from Don, and advertising agency.  No person has ever made Don Draper baulk, but Peggy, and I give full credit to Moss.

Emmy Rossum as Fiona Gallagher in Shameless-Rossum has certainly grown into her own as an actress; she started with the music of the night in Phantom of the Opera, now she is wrangling her brothers and sisters as a pseudo parental figure.  Rossum did not make my list last year, but this season she more than toppled the other actresses in this category.  Rossum is one of the best parts of this terrific ensemble, and she holds nothing back.

Katey Sagal as Gemma Teller Morrow in Sons of Anarchy-While season three hit some skids in road, the show and Sagal was on full cylinders this season.  Sagal is a wonderful actress, and while the show is about group of men in a motorcycle gang Gemma's matriarch position often becomes one of the most central characters within the series.  Gemma is a fighter and within this season she proved that even as the show progresses she is still one badass character.

Downton Abbey is Becoming a Cultural Phenomenon!

Last night while look at my Tivo suggestions it had Thursday's episode of The View and I figured I would give the hot topics section a watch.  I could not make it through the first five minutes, ironically only because of Joy.  I watched their interview with Viola Davis, which was interesting, but their interviews sometimes lack something.  After the interview the interviewed one of the stars for Masterpiece Theatre Presents Downton Abbey.  During the segment they talked with Michelle Dockery about the show as a cultural phenomenon in the States, and their own obsession. 

I do not know what this segment did to me, but I stopped in the middle ran to my computer and added Downton Abbey to my instant queue on Netflix and watched the first episode right away!  My friend Keith  has been telling me to watch for months, and I trust his judgment most of the time (but he does hate Singin in the Rain). After one episode I am hooked.

Why is the show becoming a cultural phenomenon, is good question.  The shows popularity has picked up on the backend of winning Emmy Awards over HBO's Mildred Pierce.  Pierce was the most nominated film at the Emmy awards, and it lost the Best Mini-Series/Movie, Best Writing, Best Directing, and Best Supporting Actress-Maggie Smith to Downton Abbey.  People were turning into Downton prior to this, but this spurred more interest.  There has been a lot of great publicity for this show but it entrance into being a cultural phenomenon was solidified this past Saturday when Saturday Night Live's only funny sketch parodied a Spike commercial for this show.  Why did this show that was meant to be a mini-series become so successful?

The premise of the show also centers around preserving a families legacy, love, class struggles, and there is treachery abound.  Julian Fellows who wrote the wonderfully brilliant film Gosford Park, is the creative mind behind this show.  The show feels similar to Gosford Park, but Executive Producer/Writer Fellows has created a wodnerfully rich new world filled with interesting characters.  All of these elements combined create an excellent television experience the show just breaks the traditional mold for popular American TV shows because its set in England in the early 1910s, it actually starts and the first episode takes place right after the Titanic sinks.

The US Anglophile mentality has long been a part of film, and their have been elements that have crept into television, but this show becoming a major player on PBS makes sense, and will help them out with gaining great amounts of funding.  I would not be surprised if that spawns of series on HBO or Showtime, and that this television experience promulgates many networks even beyond the major pay calber networks to create shows similar to this one.  I am excited to breeze through the first 7 episodes of the first part of this series, and watch as the Grantham family works to save Downton, as the servants of the house work to play their own games, and the best part will be watching Maggie Smith make wonderfully sarcastic comments.