Emmy Week (2013): Time to Liven Up Outstanding Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards. Can Louis C.K. Save the Day?

For the past 6 years 2 shows have won Outstanding Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards, 30 Rock and  Modern Family.  From 1999 until 2006 only one show repeated their victory and that show was Everybody Loves Raymond.  Between 1999 and 2006 shows like Ally McBeal, Friends, Will & Grace, Sex and the City, Arrested Development, and The Office each took their turn at the podium.  Each of these shows won in a year with critical support, they were the best seasons of their shows history, and deservedly.  The only win I would argue against was Everybody Loves Raymond's repeat, which should have been a repeat win for Arrested Development, or even Desperate Housewives.

As stated above 30 Rock and Modern Family have dominated these categories for six years, and this could be the seventh, this award winner has gotten stale like back to the days of Frasier's 5-peat in the mid to late nineties.  The big question of the week is can comedian Louis C.K. come in and save the day making this category a bit more interesting?

Ove the years only a few shows have repeated in this category, Frasier has the most wins at 5.  There are three shows tied with four wins: All in the Family, Cheers, and The Dick Van Dyke Show.  Four shows have three wins: 30 Rock, The Mary Tyler Moore Show, Modern Family, and Taxi.  Seven shows have 2 wins: Everybody Loves Raymond, Get Smart, The Golden Girls, I Love Lucy, The Jack Benny Show, Murphy Brown, and The Phil Silvers Show.

Of the 65 years only 20 years have had repeat winners, which is pretty great at creating variety in this category, but we are in a drought.  Both Modern Family and 30 Rock are heavy front runners this year, but there is one upstart who could change it all, and that's Louis C.K. for Louie.

Over the years shows like Louie rarely win in the series category, but do score nominations.  Curb Your Enthusiasm is obviously the closest show to compare.  Curb  has been nominated for 39 Emmy Awards, but only won 2, only one non technical award for Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series.  Louie has just tied Curb's record of two wins, one for writing last year, and one for Outstanding Guest Actress in a Comedy Series.  C.K. himself has been nominated all three the show has been on the air for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series, but this is the first year the show has been nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series.  Can Louis C.K. do what Larry David, the creator of Seinfeld from an HBO series could never do with Curb, win?

Louis C.K. is nominated for nine Emmy Awards this year, and the answer is maybe.  Is there Modern Family fatigue?  The show was nominated for fewer awards this year, and one of their cast members was snubbed for the first time since the first season.  The show also has no writing nominations.  Can 30 Rock swing back for the purpose of sentimentality?  The show won it's first Emmy in 3 years Outstanding Casting, which is fairly rare for a show in its last season.  The only problem is that only two shows have won for their final seasons, and they are Everybody Loves Raymond and Barney Miller.  30 Rock may win win an acting and writing or directing, but not series.

Does this open the door for Louie?  Why not The Big Bang Theory, the most watched show comedy on television?  Bang has no writing or directing nominations, along with some of the other major technical awards that signal a win here.  Girls is too polarizing and has lost its sheen, and while Veep has the clout it did not score a writing or directing nomination in a show where those factors are the most important.

My gut says Modern Family will keep the snooze fest of this category alive, but I am going to go out on a limb, and predict that Louie will shake things up, and pull out a surprise victory in this category.

Emmy Predictions (Nomination Day)

Now that the Emmy nominations are out, and the mistakes and triumphs have been laid to bed (almost) here are my initial gut reactions on who will win (should win), before the tapes the shows, and actors have been released.

BEST DRAMA SERIES
"Breaking Bad"
"Downton Abbey"
"Game of Thrones"
"Homeland"
"House of Cards"
"Mad Men"

I would say that Mad Men, and House of Cards are out, but even the latter has a better shot.  Downton could win, it won SAG, the actors are very supportive of this show.  I think this is a three way race between Bad, Thrones, and Homeland.  Homeland has the fact that it's won on its side, got more acting nominations, and writing and directing nominations.  Thrones has the most nominations, including a writing nomination, more acting and a cinematography nomination (which its never received).  Breaking Bad has never gotten a writing nomination, but got two nominations this year, and voting will occur while the final part of the last season airs.  This is a tough one, but at the moment, my gut goes with Breaking Bad.

Will Win:Breaking Bad
Should Win: Any of the three top contenders, I'd pick Homeland

BEST DRAMA ACTOR
Hugh Bonneville, "Downton Abbey"
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
Jeff Daniels, "The Newsroom"
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"
Damian Lewis, "Homeland"
Kevin Spacey, "House of Cards"

This is the hardest race to predict, Lewis was a bit of a surprise last year, and Kyle Chandler beating John Hamm, was one of the biggest surprises ever.  So who takes the prize?  Bonneville is the weakest link, but he has more material then last year.  Cranston does not have any tape that I can think of, and has won many times before, I think he could win next year.  If Hamm submits the season finale he's a contender.  Lewis has Q&A, Daniels The Pilot, and Spacey has 3 great episodes.  My gut is between newcomers Spacey and Daniels, but could this be Hamm's year?  At the moment I am going with Spacey.

Will and Should Win: Kevin Spacey

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS
Connie Britton, "Nashville"
Claire Danes, "Homeland"
Michelle Dockery, "Downton Abbey"
Vera Farmiga, "Bates Motel"
Elisabeth Moss, "Mad Men"
Kerry Washington, "Scandal"
Robin Wright, "House of Cards"

7 ladies, another great category, I still am angry the snubbed Marguilles.  Moss, Britton, Wright, Dockery, and Farmiga are the long shots of the bunch.  Last year's winner Claire Danes is the favorite, but Kerry Washington is a serious threat especially with history on her side; she is the first black actress to be nominated in this category since 1995.  I think Danes may lose this one honestly, and while history shouldn't ensure a win Washington is great in the show.

Will Win: Kerry Washington
Should Win: Claire Danes

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jonathan Banks, "Breaking Bad" 
Bobby Cannavale, "Boardwalk Empire" 
Jim Carter, "Downton Abbey" 
Peter Dinklage, "Game of Thrones" 
Mandy Patinkin, "Homeland" 
Aaron Paul, "Breaking Bad"

I would have only nominated two of these people so predicting this list will be tough.  The Emmy Awards like Cannavale, he has an Emmy for Will & Grace, has now been nominated twice for Nurse Jackie, and now enters the major categories.  He chews scenery with the best of em, and could win.  I would say this is anyone's guess, but I think Mandy Patinkin is the favorite.

Will and Should Win: Mandy Patinkin

BEST DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Morena Baccarin, "Homeland" 
Christine Baranski, "The Good Wife"
Emilia Clarke, "Game of Thrones" 
Anna Gunn, "Breaking Bad"
Christina Hendricks, "Mad Men" 
Maggie Smith, "Downton Abbey" 

Most of the time I would say Smith has most awards in the bag, but I do not think she has this one, not even close.Clarke is solid, but I can't see her winning.  Hendricks doesn't have many tapes.  I could se Baranski winning; she has good tapes and is well like.  I think Anna Gunn takes this!

Will and Should Win: Anna Gunn

BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTOR
Dan Bucatinsky, "Scandal" 
Michael J. Fox, "The Good Wife" 
Rupert Friend, "Homeland" 
Harry Hamlin, "Mad Men"
Nathan Lane, "The Good Wife" 
Robert Morse, "Mad Men"

Will and Should Win: Nathan Lane 

BEST DRAMA GUEST ACTRESS
Linda Cardellini, "Mad Men" 
Joan Cusack, "Shameless" 
Jane Fonda, "The Newsroom" 
Margo Martindale, "The Americans"
Carrie Preston, "The Good Wife" 
Diana Rigg, "Game of Thrones" 

Will Win: Jane Fonda
Should Win: Carrie Preston

BEST COMEDY SERIES
"The Big Bang Theory"
"Girls"
"Louie"
"Modern Family"
"30 Rock"
"Veep"

Girls is out, too polarizing, unlike Sex and the City, there are ardent haters.  I do not think Big Bang has a shot either, same acting nominations, no writing or directing, I think the Academy views this show as too cute, and not "important" enough.  Louie and Veep score major bumps, but Veep has no writing or directing nominations, shows of this pedigree rarely win this award without them.  Louis C.K. just received 9 nominations today, and his show could win out.  I think this is between 30 Rock, and Modern Family.  Tough call! Rock has the last two episodes, which are fantastic and both nominated for writing, and one is nominated for directing.  Modern Family has only one directing nomination.  I am going to go out on a limb with this one.

Will Win: 30 Rock
Should Win: Louie

BEST COMEDY ACTOR
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
Jason Bateman, "Arrested Development"
Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"
Louis C.K., "Louie"
Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes"
Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory"

Development was majorly snubbed, but Bateman could win if they judge based on tapes, and the Academy could make up for the snub.  Baldwin is very well liked, but has had some bad press lately, never prevented him from winning.  Louis C.K. was obviously well liked, but comedians rarely win in the acting categories.  My money is on C.K. this year.

Will and Should Win: Louis C.K.

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS
Laura Dern, "Enlightened"
Lena Dunham, "Girls"
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"
Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"

Tough call, I think Dreyfuss is going to simply repeat, the best way to honor Veep.  The rest of the nominees all have a shot, but I think Falco, Dunham, and Dern should all be happy for the nomination. Fey could get tapped for a parting tap, like at SAG.  Could this be the year they finally honor Poehler?  They do not seem to like her show, so probably not.

Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfuss
Should: Laura Dern

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ty Burrell, "Modern Family"
Adam Driver, "Girls"
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, "Modern Family"
Bill Hader, "Saturday Night Live"
Tony Hale, "Veep"  
Ed O'Neill, "Modern Family"

Last years winner is gone! I am pretty surprised Hale, and Driver made this list, but they are both great.  Hader will submit his farewell episode, great episode for him.  I think this is where Modern Family continues their winning streak, and with Ty Burell again, although I could see them finally honoring O'Neill.

Will Win: Ty Burrell
Should Win: Adam Driver 

BEST COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mayim Bialik, "The Big Bang Theory"
Julie Bowen, "Modern Family"
Anna Chlumsky, "Veep"
Jane Krakowski, "30 Rock"
Jane Lynch, "Glee"
Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family"
Merritt Wever, "Nurse Jackie"

If Jane Lynch wins for this I would be shocked, but they like Glee again for some reason.  I could honestly see any of these women winning.  Bowen has won two years running, but after a weak season I can't think of a single tape that she can win with.  I think this is going to be between Krakowski; she is great in the finale.  I do think this will be based on tapes, but this is going to come right now Krakowski is my prediction.

Will Win: Jane Krakowski
Should Win: Anna Chlumsky

BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTOR
Louie C.K., "Saturday Night Live" 
Bobby Cannavale, "Nurse Jackie" 
Will Forte, "30 Rock" 
Nathan Lane, "Modern Family" 
Bob Newhart, "The Big Bang Theory"
Justin Timberlake, "Saturday Night Live"

Will and Should Win: Bob Newhart

BEST COMEDY GUEST ACTRESS
Dot-Marie Jones, "Glee" 
Melissa Leo, "Louie" 
Melissa McCarthy, "Saturday Night Live" 
Molly Shannon, "Enlightened"
Elaine Stritch, "30 Rock"
Kristin Wiig, "Saturday Night Live" 

Will Win: Kristin Wiig
Should Win: Melissa Leo 

BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES
"American Horror Story: Asylum"
"Behind the Candelabra"
"The Bible"
"Phil Spector"
"Political Animals"
"Top of the Lake"

Will and Should Win: Behind the Candelabra

BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch, "Parade's End" 
Matt Damon, "Behind the Candelabra" 
Michael Douglas, "Behind the Candelabra" 
Toby Jones, "The Girl" 
Al Pacino, "Phil Spector"

Will Win: Michael Douglas
Should Win: Matt Damon

BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES ACTRESS
Jessica Lange, "American Horror Story: Asylum" 
Laura Linney, "The Big C: Hereafter" 
Helen Mirren, "Phil Spector"
Elisabeth Moss, "Top of the Lake" 
Sigourney Weaver, "Political Animals"

Will and Should Win: Elisabeth Moss

BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTOR
Scott Bakula, "Behind the Candelabra" 
James Cromwell, "American Horror Story: Asylum" 
John Benjamin Hickey, "The Big C: Hereafter" 
Peter Mullan, "Top of the Lake" 
Zachary Quinto, "American Horror Story: Asylum" 

Will Win: Zachary Quinto
Should Win: Peter Mullan

BEST TV MOVIE/MINISERIES SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ellen Burstyn, "Political Animals" 
Sarah Paulson, "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Charlotte Rampling, "Restless" 
Imelda Staunton, "The Girl" 
Alfre Woodard, "Steel Magnolias" 

Will and Should Win Sarah Paulson

The 65th Emmy Award Nominations are a Snooze, while Drama Pushes the Envelope with more Game of Thrones, and Netflix Series House of Cards, the Comedy line-up looks and feels Stale than my Bagel this Morning

No Julianna Marguilles for The Good Wife?  Jane Lynch is back for her barely there performances in Glee?  Downton Abbey beats out fresh series like The Americans, and The Newsroom?  Arrested Development, basically snubbed across the board?  To quote Steel Magnolias, "Are you high?"

With those questions posed and my rant over (for the time being) the 65th Annual Primetime Emmy Nominations, had some good, House of Cards scored 9 nominations, including drama series, but leaving Corey Stoll out of Supporting Actor is baffling.  I am happy to see Kerry Washington in the mix for Scandal, and with seven nomination in Drama Lead Actress there is proof that there are so many great dramatic roles for women its hard to narrow down.  With that said I love Connie Britton, and Nashville is fun, but her getting in over Marguilles is a joke.

On the other hand there are signs voters paid attention, just a little, Jonathan Banks, Emilia Clarke, more writing nominations for Breaking Bad, no writing or directing nominations for Mad Men.  I know Down makes it in because older voters are gaga for this show, but it was not that great this past season, and I am a fan.

Now to the Comedy nominees (and I took it easy on drama).  First and foremost props to upping the ante for shows like Louie and Veep, that's the best thing you Academy did in the comedy categories this year.  Louie and Veep received comedy series nominations along with a few acting nominations, the only surprise is that Veep was once again shut out of writing and directing, when that is the shows bread and butter.

Hey Academy, have you heard of this show called New Girl?  It received several major nominations last year, and it you dropped it faster than a clingy partner.  New Girl had it's best season, and you did not even nominate any of its actors, one of the biggest mistakes.

When Jason Bateman's name was announced, my excitement was peaked.  Then comedy series was announced, and no Arrested Development, I shrugged it off assuming there would be a Jessica Walter or Will Arnett nomination to help ease the pain,  but no dice.  I understand this wasn't everything people wanted, but the show was still good, and these performances still were funny, this makes no sense.

Going into the the night American Horror Story: Asylum has 17 nominations (but will lose to Behind the Candelabra), Game of Thrones has 16 nominations, the most for a drama series, 30 Rock leads the Comedy  nominees with 13 nominations, and Modern Family close behind with 12 nominations.  Louis C.K. also set a record for 9 Emmy nominations for one performer.

This set of nominations is a mixed bag, some great things happened like Netflix doing well with House of Cards, Kerry Washington getting in, Veep, and Louie doing well, and some things were just plain lazy, like Glee nominations, and other shows which were just check marked for the name.  I am going to stick with the Television Critics Awards (TCA) nominations and winners from now on if the Emmy Awards remain lazy.

Best Drama
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men

Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Hugh Bonnevile-Downton Abbey
Bryan Cranston-Breaking Bad
Jeff Daniels-The Newsroom
Jon Hamm-Mad Men
Damien Lewis-Homeland
Kevin Spacey-House of Cards

Best Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Connie Britton-Nashville
Claire Daines-Homeland
Michelle Dockery-Downton Abbey
Vera Farmiga-Bate's Motel
Elisbaeth Moss-Mad Men
Kerry Washington-Scandal
Robin Wright-House of Cards

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jonathan Banks-Breaking Bad
Bobby Cannavale-Boardwalk Empire
Jim Carter-Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones
Aaron Paul-Breaking Bad
Mandy Patinkin-Homeland

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Morena Baccarin-Homeland
Christina Baranski-The Good Wife
Emilia Clarke-Game of Thrones
Anna Gunn-Breaking Bad
Christina Hendricks-Mad Men
Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey

Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Dan Bucatinsky-Scandal
Michael J. Fox-The Good Wife
Rupert Friend-Homeland
Nathan Lane-The Good Wife
Robert Morse-Mad Men
Harry Hamlin-Mad Men

Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Linda Cardellini-Mad Men
Joan Cusack-Shaneless
Jane Fonda-The Newsroom
Margo Martindale-The Americans
Carrie Preston-The Good Wife
Diana Rigg-Game of Thrones

Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series
Breaking Bad-Dead Freight
Breaking Bad-Say My Name
Downton Abbey-Episode 4
Game of Thrones-The Rains of Castamere
Homeland-Q&A

Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series
Boardwalk Empire-Margate Sands-
Breaking Bad-Gliding Over All
Downton Abbey-Episode 4
Homeland-Q&A-
House of Cards-Chapter One

Best Comedy Series
30 Rock
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Louie
Modern Family
Veep

Best Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Alec Baldwin-30 Rock

Jason Bateman-Arrested Development

Louis C.K.-Louie

Don Cheedle-House of Lies 

Matt LeBlanc-Episodes 

Jim Parsons-The Big Bang Theory 

Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Laura Dern-Enlightened 

Lena Dunham-Girls 

Edie Falco-Nurse Jackie 

Tina Fey-30 Rock 

Julia Louis-Dreyfus-Veep

Amy Poehler-Parks and Recreation

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Ty Burrell-Modern Family
Jessie Tyler Fergeuson-Modern Family
Adam Driver-Girls
Tony Hale-Veep
Bill Hader-Saturday Night Live
Ed O'Neil-Modern Family

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Mayim Bialik-The Big Bang Theory

Julie Bowen-Modern Family

Anna Chlumsky-Veep

Jane Krakowski-30 Rock

Jane Lynch-Glee 

Sofia Vergara-Modern Family

Merritt Wever-Nurse Jackie

Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Bobby Cannavale-Nurse Jackie
Louis C.K.-Saturday Night Live
Will Forte-30 Rock
Bob Newhart-The Big Bang Theory
Nathan Lane-Modern Family
Justin Timberlake-Saturday Night Live

Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Dot-Marie Jones-Glee
Melissa Leo-Louie
Melissa McCarthy-Saturday Night Live 

Molly Shannon-Enlightened
Elaine Stritch-30 Rock
Kristin Wiig-Saturday Night Live

Directing in a Comedy Series
Girls-On All Fours-Lena Dunham
Glee-Diva-Paris Barclay
Louie-New Year's Eve-Louis C.K.
Modern Family-Arrested-Gail Mancuso
30 Rock-Hogcock/Last Lunch-Beth McCarthy Miller

Writing in a Comedy Series
Episodes-Episdoe 209-David Crane and Jeffrey Klarik
Louie-Daddy's Girlfriend (Part One)-Louis C.K.
The Office-Finale-Greg Daniels
30 Rock-Hogcock-Robert Carlock and Jack Burditt
30 Rock-Last Lunch-Tina Fey and Tracey Wigfield

Best Mini-Series/Movie

American Horror Story: Asylum

Behind the Candelabra 

The Bible

Phil Spector

Political Animals

Top of the Lake 

Lead Actor in a Mini Series/Movie 

Benedict Cumberbatch

Matt Damon-Behind the Candelabra

Douglas-Behind the Candelabra

Tobey Jones-The Girl

Al Pacino-Phil Spector 

Lead Actress in a Mini-Series/Movie

Jessica Lange-American Horror Story: Asylum

Laura Linney-The Big C: Hereafter

Helen Mirren-Phil Spector 

Elisabeth Moss-Top of the Lake 

Sigourney Weaver-Political Animals

Supporting Actor in a Mini-Series/Movie
Scot Bakula-Behind the Cadelabra
James Cromwell-American Horror Story: Asylum
John Benjamin Hickey-The Big C: Hereafter
Zachary Quinto-American Horror Story: Asylum
Tom Mullen-Top of the Lake

Supporting Actress in a Mini-Series/Movie
Ellen Burstyn-Political Animals
Sarah Paulson-American Horror Story: Asylum
Charlotte Rampling-Restless
Imelda Staunton-The Girl
Alfre Woodard-Steel Magnolias

Reality Series 

The Amazing Race 

Dancing with the Stars 

Project Runway

So You Think You Can Dance

Top Chef

The Voice 

 Reality Show Host

Tom Bergeron-Danicing with the Stars

Anthony Bourdain-The Taste 

Cat Deely-So You Think You Can Dance 

Heidi Klum and Tim Gunn-Project Runway

Ryan Seacrest-American Idol

Betty White-Off Their Rockers

Best Variety Series

The Colbert Report

The Daily Show 

Late Show with Jimmy Kimmel

Late Night with Jimmy Fallon

Real Time with Bill Maher

Saturday Night Live