I will start by saying that Golden Globes can be predictable and they can throw some curve balls, last year Kate Winslet winning for Steve Jobs (and the screenplay winning) were two good examples from last year. Another good example was Julian Schnabel winning Best Director for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, this happened to be during the writer's strike, but if it were televised I believe this could have pushed the film even further. The film went on to score 4 Oscar nominations.
Tonight could propel Hacksaw Ridge (watch out for Gibson in Director or Garfield in Drama Actor). I could also see Hell or High Water winning screenplay, Arrival winning Score. The Globes love to spread the wealth in many ways, remember Birdman lost Best/Musical Comedy to Grand Budapest Hotel but won Best Screenplay and Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy.
Best Film (Drama)
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Lion
My money is on Moonlight winning here, I think the film will win more than one award. I think Manchester by the sea is second here.
Will Win: Moonlight
Spoiler: Manchester by the Sea
Best Film Comedy/Musical
20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street
La La Land could make a clean sweep but even Chicago did not do that here back in 2002, it won Best Film Comedy/Musical, and Actor and Actress, and lost everything else. The Globes love musicals so it will win here, but they also spread the wealth.
Will Win: La La Land
Best Actor (Drama)
Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton-Loving
Andrew Garfield-Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen-Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington-Fences
I believe this is a three person race, with many under estimating Andrew Garfield. I am going to go with Affleck, but I think Garfield is in second place (especially since many voters may remember his performance in Silence too). Fences under performed here and I think they will award Davis as the win for that film.
Will Win: Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
Spoiler: Andrew Garfield-Hacksaw Ridge
Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical
Annette Bening-20th Century Women
Lilly Collins-Rules Don't Apply
Hailee Steinfeld-Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone-La La Land
Meryl Streep-Florence Foster Jenkins
Bening would be my choice by a football field, but Stone is still a great pick.
Will Win: Emma Stone-La La Land
Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical
Collin Farrell-The Lobster
Ryan Gosling-La La Land
Hugh Grant-Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill-War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds-Deadpool
Gosling does not have this sewn up, I expect a "upset" here. Florence Foster Jenkins has four nominations, and this is where I think it will pick up a win with Hugh Grant walking to the podium.
I also could see Reynolds winning for Deadpool, the film got a Comedy/Musical nomination. They could go for Jonah Hill. This one is a toss up.
Will Win: Hugh Grant-Florence Foster Jenkin
Spoiler: Anyone but I would guess Ryan Reynolds, surprisingly the next most charming
Best Actress in a Drama
Amy Adams-Arrival
Jessica Chastain-Miss Sloane
Isabelle Hupper-Elle
Ruth Negga-Loving
Natalie Portman-Jackie
I know I will catch a lot of flack on this one, but I think this one room for a spoiler. Jackie has under performed throughout awards season, although Portman did win at Critics Choice. I think Huppert or Adams could spoil here. This is my no guts, no glory pick.
Will Win: Amy Adams-Arrival
Spoiler: Natlaie Portman-Jackie (or Hupper)
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
Jeff Bridges-Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg-Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel-Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson-Nocturnal Animals
Ali has been the big front runner this season, and I think he will win here, but Patel and Bridges could spoil. I think the ever present Ali will win because he has been every where this year.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
Spoiler: Dev Patel-Lio
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis-Fences
Naomie Harris-Moonlight
Nicole Kidman-Lion
Octavia Spencer-Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea
Davis is going to take this award season by storm!
Will Win: Viola Davis-Fences
Spoiler: Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea
Best Director
Damien Chazelle-La La Land
Mel Gibson-Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
Kenneth Lonnergan-Manchester by the Sea
Tom Ford-Nocturnal Animals
This is tougher to predict than people are admitting. This could be part of the Chazelle award season landslide, but I think the Globes will throw this one to someone different. Their Best Director winner is quite often a person whose film did not win. This bodes well for Gibson, who looks to be a possible big time spoiler.
I am thinking this is a year they match and go with Jenkins.
Will Win: Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
Spoiler: Gibson then Chazelle
Best Film Screenplay
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
Screenplay can sometimes be the one off win, like Up in the Air, Her, or Midnight in Paris. The other type of Screenplay win will often go with an acting win (no film win), see Steve Jobs, Birdman, Django Unchained. The other kind of win is the landslide which is rare
I think this year this will be Manchster, and Casey Affleck, but watch out for this going Hell or High Water.
Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Spoiler: Hell or High Water
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zuchinni
Sing
Zootopia
They tend to go predictable in this category...
Will Win: Zootopia
Best Foreign Language Film
Divine
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Ton Erdmann
Many of these films are French, or have split French origin, so will that split the vote? Maybe.
Will Win: Toni Erdmann
Spoiler: Elle or Neruda
Best Original Score
Arrival
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
The Globes appear to love those classic/iconic sounding scores (The Painted Veil), they will also pick more outside the box things too (The Social Network). I think this will go to La La Land, but watch out for Lion.
Will Win: La La Land
Spoiler: Lion
Best Original Song
Gold-Gold
La La Land-City of Stars
Moana-How Far I'll Go
Sing-Faith
Trolls-Can't Stop the Feeling
I am torn, will they try to get Lin Manuel or JT on stage, or go for the original music from a musical they clearly love?
Will Win: Moana-How Far I'll Go
Spoiler: La La Land-City of Stars
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