1-La La Land
3-Manchester by the Sea
4-Hell or High Water
Strongest three films are La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea, anyway you slice it those three films have done the best.
Hell or High Water, Hacksaw Ridge, Arrival, and Lion are interchangeable in the middle, they have done well at Critics Choice, the Globes, and SAG. The next series of big guild awards will help narrow this down.
Like most years I think there will be 8 nominees and fighting it out for that 8th spot is Fences, Hidden Figures, and Sully. At the moment Fences and Hidden Figures are close for that last spot, I think box office, and Oscar campaign will push Fences ahead, but Hidden Figures looks strong. Sully is miles back because of its snubs, but if it lands in PGA and some of the other Guilds it has a shot.
1-Damien Chazelle-La La Land
3-Kenneth Lonnergan-Manchester by the Sea
5-David Mackenzie-Hell or High Water
Mel Gibson-Hacksaw Ridge Denis Villeneueve-Arrival
I think Chazelle, Jenkins, and Lonnergan like their films appear to be locked into this category. They are showing up everywhere, and their films have the most support.
I think Scorsese will show up here, he has not shown up anywhere else, but I feel like he will make the DGA line-up. I think the fifth spot is tough, right now I am picking Mackenzie, this is a long shot guess on my part. DGA and BAFTA may help clear this up, but it did not for the Lenny Aabrahamson nomination last year.
Gibson and Villeneueve seem the most likely (in that order) to bounce Scorsese and Mackenzie.
1-Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
3-Andrew Garfield-Hacksaw Ridge
4-Ryan Gosling-La La Land
5-Viggo Mortensen-Captain Fantastic
Affleck, Washington, Garfield, and Gosling look like locks to me. Mortensen and his film had a fantastic week. I have him in at fifth because of the SAG ensemble nomination. Like Terrence Howard with Hustle and Flow this show strength.
Edgerton is the next likeliest contender, but that is looking less likely. Tom Hanks did not show up anywhere, and I almost considered not putting him down here, but he is after all Tom Hanks.
1-Emma Stone-La La Land
4-Meryl Streep-Florence Foster Jenkins
Annette Benning-20th Century Women
Taraji P. Henson-Hidden Figures
This is the most competitive category. I think Stone, Portman and Adams are as close to locks as you can predict. The fourth and fifth spots are a little murky.
Meryl Streep looks poised to attain another nomination, and I like her I truly do, but there need to be other actresses who are celebrated. Streep is typically the rubber stamp for older actresses which is nice to have an older actress in this category, but who am I to judge. With Globe/SAG, and her Cecile B. DeMille tribute, I think she is a pretty safe bet.
I think the fifth spot goes to Huppert like Charlotte Rampling (who missed the Globes last year), and Marion Cotillard the year before who got in for Two Days One Night.
After this comes Negga, Benning and Henson, anyone could be snubbed or spoil, this is a very close category.
2-Jeff Bridges-Hell or High Water
4-Lucas Hedges-Manchester by the Sea
5-Hugh Grant-Florence Foster Jenkins
*Ali was bumped to one, Bridge moved from contender to 2, Hedges from 1 to 3, Patel was moved from Lead to Supporting.
Contenders:Michael Shannon-Nocturnal Animals
Ben Foster-Hell or High Water
I think this category will match SAG five for five, that simple.
Best Supporting Actress
1-Viola Davis-Fences Naomi Harris-Moonlight
2-Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea
Contenders:Janelle Monae-Hidden Figures
These five women are the nominees for SAG and the Globes, I think they will be the Oscar nominees
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Original Screenplay
1-Manchester by the Sea
2-La La Land
3-Hell or High Water