Thursday, January 19, 2017

Final 2017 Oscar Predictions

Image result for oscars 2017There is a lot that could happen next Tuesday January 24th, as the Academy voting period has changed predicting has become a little bit more difficult. There is one thing I can guarantee La La Land will be the most nominated film.


Changing the System

Before I get into my actual predictions, I am going to get on one of my soap boxes with the film industry, in particular the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science.  The system is broken because of the diversity of its members but it also broken because of the shortened timeline.  The Oscars used to be held in March, and the time for voting allowed a variety of movies to get their fair shake.  I wish AMPAS, and the other guilds would go back to this process in order to allow their membership to see more movies.  May this along with more diverse members would change things, may it would not, but I think these are important elements in honoring the "best."

I will also argue that they need to just force members to list 10 Best Picture nominees for nominations, no more of this there there could be anywhere between 5 and 10, it's idiotic.

The La La Land of it all

La La Land will likely join this group of Best Picture nominees (seen below), 6 of those 9 won Best Picture.  Gone with the Wind was the only film that won using the preferential ballot, it won 8 awards, the most any film has won with that system.

Films with 13 nominations - 9
13
1939
8
13
1953
8
13
Shakespeare in Love
1998
7
13
Forrest Gump
1994
6
13
Chicago
2002
6
13
Mary Poppins *
1964
5
13
1966
5
13
2001
4
13
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button *
2008
3

The big question is will La La Land win as many? We will have to wait and see how the guilds/BAFTA play out. Listed below are my final predictions, I will no longer over think this!

Best Picture

1-La La Land
2-
Moonlight
3-Manchester by the Sea
4-
Lion
5-Arrival
6-Hell or High Water 
7-
Hidden Figures
8-Hacksaw Ridge 
(I am fairly certain there will be 8)
9-Fences
10-Nocturnal Animals 


The big question is how many Oscar nominees there will be this year.  I like to predict as if there would be 10, although that is rare these days.  My money is on the top 8.

Best Director
1-Damien Chazelle-La La Land
2-Barry Jenkins-Moonlight
3-Kenneth Lonnergan-Manchester by the Sea
4-
Denis Villeneueve-Arrival
5-David Mackenzie-Hell or High Water 

6-Garth Davis-Lion 
Garth Davis is a solid spoiler for Lion; he has the Weinstein Company behind him and two DGA nominations this year, and he will win breakthrough.  DGA and Oscar rarely line-up and Villeneueve could be the vulnerable one, but that film has legs.  I have feeling Davis got in at DGA because of the larger voting body, and the fact that he made a big name for himself in TV.  Watch out for a director from a Foreign Language film, this branch increased membership there.

Best Actor
1-Casey Affleck-Manchester by the Sea
2-
Denzel Washington-Fences
3-Andrew Garfield-Hacksaw Ridge 
4-Ryan Gosling-La La Land
5-Viggo Mortensen-Captain Fantastic 

6-Jake Gyllenhaal-Nocturnal Animals

This feels like a solid five, and I am under estimating Nocturnal Animals across the board.  Although Jake Gyllenhaal could capitalize on his BAFTA nomination.  Animals does not feel like a movie AMPAS would go for, so I am happy with this five.


Best Actress
1-Emma Stone-La La Land
2-
Meryl Streep-Florence Foster Jenkins
3-Amy Adams-Arrival
4-
Natalie Portman-Jackie
5-
Taraji P. Henson-Hidden Figures

6-Isabelle Huppert-Elle

I think this is a solid five too, but unlike Best Actor there is definitely the possibility for a spoiler. I know people are hell bent on Portman, but Jackie has under performed across the board.  I think actors will give her this one, but she is weaker.  I think the biggest spoiler is Taraji P. Henson for Hidden Figures, much like Samantha Morton for In America (a film the Academy loved with heart) she is the biggest possibility and a previous Oscar nominee.

Supporting Actor
1-Mahershala Ali-Moonlight
2-Jeff Bridges-Hell or High Water
3-
Dev Patel-Lion 
4-Hugh Grant-Florence Foster Jenkins
5-Aaron Taylor Johnson-Nocturnal Animals

6-
Lucas Hedges-Manchester by the Sea

I think if anyone from Nocturnal Animals gets nominated over one of these five it's Shannon

Best Supporting Actress
1-
Viola Davis-Fences Naomi Harris-Moonlight
2-Michelle Williams-Manchester by the Sea
3-Naomi Harris-Moonlight
4-Nicole Kidman-Lion
5-Octavia Spencer-Hidden Figures 

6-
Janelle Monae-Hidden Figures 

Like Best Actor feels like a safe five, with a possibility of Monae getting in, but I think Octavia has that Hidden Figures spot.

Best Adapted Screenplay
1-Moonlight 
2-
Arrival
3-
Lion
4-Hidden Figures 

5-
Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Screenplay
1-Manchester by the Sea
2-
La La Land
3-
Hell or High Water 
4-
The Lobster 
5-I, Daniel Blake 

Best Cinematography 
1-La La Land 
2-Moonlight
3-Arrival
4-Silence 
5-Lion 

Best Costume Design
1-Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 
2-La La Land
3-Florence Foster Jenkins
4-Jackie
5-The Dressmaker

Best Film Editing 
1-La La Land
2-Hacksaw Ridge
3-Arrival
4-Moonlight
5-Manchester by the Sea

Best Make-Up/Hair
1-Star Treak: Beyond
2-A Man Called Ove
3-Hail, Cesar!

Best Production Design 
1-La La Land
2-Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 
3-Jackie 
4-Nocturnal Animals 
5-The Handmaiden 

Best Original Score
1-La La Land 
2-Moonlight
3-Lion
4-Nocturnal Animals 
5-Jackie 

Best Original Song 
1-La La Land-City of Stars
2-Moana-How Far I'll Go
3-La La Land-Audition
4-Hidden Figures-Runnin
5-Jim:The Jim Foley Story-The Empty Chair 

Best Sound Editing 
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon 
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Sully 

Best Sound Mixing
Arrival 
Deepwater Horizon 
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land 
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Visual Effects
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon 
Dr. Strange 
The Jungle Book 
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Animated  Film 
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana 
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle 
Zooptopia 

Best Foreign Language Film 
Land of Mine 
A Man Called Ove 
The Salesman 
Tanna 
Toni Erdmann

Best Documentary (Feature) 
The 13th 
Cameraperson
I am not your Negro
O.J. : Made in America 
Weiner 

Best Short Film (Live Action)
Extremis
Frame 394
Joe's Violin
The Mute's House
The White Violin

Best Short Film (Animated) 
The Head Vanishes
Inner Workings
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper 


Best Picture Nomination Tally
La La Land-13
Arrival-10
Moonlight-8 
Manchester by the Sea-7
Hacksaw Ridge-5 
Lion-5 
Hell or High Water-4 
Hidden Figures-4 



1 comment:

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