I love to be right about predicting the Oscars, but this year I am going to just go out on a ledge with a lot of categories, and see where I fall. This year I will be breaking down my predictions, day by day, with different categories. I will be starting with Best Picture, and my predictions in order are:
1-The Big Short
4-Bridge of Spies
6-Mad Max: Fury Road
8-Straight Outta Compton
The Big Short is the front runner at the moment, 2 SAG nominations, and strong support from many of the guilds (DGA to happen Tuesday), and did a lot better at BAFTA than I expected, including a Director nomination for Adam McKay, which bumped out Tom McCarthy.
Spotlight has under performed in many ways, no acting nominations at SAG, no ACE nomination even with the categories being split between Drama and Comedy, and a poor showing at BAFTA. The film still seems to have a lot of respect and admiration, and is a solid lock.
The Martian, Bridge of Spies, The Revenant, and Mad Max, all fall in the same category for me, broad support across the guilds and at BAFTA. I think these four are near locks.
Carol jumped from 9 to 7 on my list, being one of the most nominated films at the BAFTAs helps, it also got key nominations in Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. I think this film has a lot of love, and enough passion to make the cut.
Straight Outta Compton and Sicario are the films which have surprised many, and shown up at guilds time and time again. Both made the PGA list, which is huge. I think there is broad enough support to include these two films in a top ten list
Room is a guess, the film just seems to have a lot of admiration, and seems to speak to this audience. I think Trumbo, Brooklyn, and The Force Awakens, are next in line (in that order).
In the end we do not know how many films will be nominated for Best Picture, since the number can vary between 5 and 10 in a given year. Last year there were only 8 nominees, there have typically been 9. I think since this is a crazy year with a variety of passion for different films, this will be a year with nine nominees again.