Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Oscar Best Actress Predictions (2016)

Best Actress is usually one of the easiest categories to predict the nominees.  The sad reason for this general fact is that there are fewer films with viable lead actress contenders year after year, but that is not the case this year.

I am excited that their appears to be only three locks in this category this year, and there are two spots that could go to anyone.  We could have an actress who is a double nominee if voters change placement.  This is a rare club, and the last two women to attain this were Julianne Moore in 2002 for Far from Heaven, and The Hours, and Cate Blanchett in 2007 for Elizabeth: The Golden Age and I'm Not There. 8 women have done this, so this is a rare club.  4 of those women won trophies those years.  3 of the women won in Supporting, and Holly Hunt for The Piano was the only person to win in Lead.  The last time one of the female double nominees won was in 1993, that was Hunter.

Only three men have been double nominees in one year, and of course all of them won their respective years.

Will Alicia Vikander be a double nominee?  I hope so; she is fantastic.


Three of the five women in this category were nominated the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA, they were: Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine, Sandra Bullock in Gravity, and Judi Dench in Philomena.  Emma Thompson was another person who was nominated at all of the shows, but was snubbed at the Oscars.  Saving Mr. Banks did not get a lot of attention, and Thompson seemed to be one of the only things people paid attention to this year.

The fourth and fifth slots went to Amy Adams for American Hustle who showed up at the Globes and BAFTA, but not SAG.  I blame the late release. Streep was nominated at the Globes and SAG, but snubbed at BAFTA,   I predicted all five because I knew there would be lots of Hustle support, and knew they would not snub Streep in a campy over the top performance.


This year had four women who showed up at the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA, they were: Julianne Moore in Still Alice, Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl, Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything, and Reese Witherspoon in Wild.

Jennifer Anniston was nominated at the Globes and SAG, while Amy Adams was nominated at the Globes and BAFTA in that fifth spot.  Last year I predicted they would ride the Aniston train, but I should have gone with my hunch for the well respected Marion Cotillard in Two Days, One Night.


This year there are three locks for nominations: Brie Larson in Room, Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn, and Cate Blanchett in Carol.  All three of them have shown up in the Lead Actress category at the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA.

SAG threw a huge wrench in this year's predictions picking Helen Mirren for The Woman in Gold and Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back.  I do not think either have any chance of being nominated at the Oscars.  BAFTA put Maggie Smith for The Lady in the Van in fifth; she has a stronger chance than Mirren and Silverman, but I think this is a Brits voting for Brits vote.

BAFTA nominated Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl in lead, the same thing happened at the Globes, she was stuck in her pre-determined supporting category at SAG, so she showed at all three places.  I have Vikander in supporting for Ex Machina, and I think she will be the twelfth performer to get double nominations in one year. This hunch comes from support across the board for this performance.

So who gets the fifth spot?  Jennifer Lawrence being snubbed at SAG and BAFTA could a sign that they are not going to name check her like older respected actresses.  Charlize Theron in Mad Max scored a nomination at Critics Choice, but it does not seem like a film they would honor with an acting nomination.  Charlotte Rampling in 45 Years also made a showing at the Critics Choice, and I could see her getting a nomination too.  So I am going to throw a dart in the air like Globe voters and....

My Predictions
1-Brie Larson-Room
2-Saoirse Ronan-Brooklyn
3-Cate Blanchett-Carol
4-Alicia Vikander-The Danish Girl
5-Jennifer Lawrence-Joy

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