Saturday, October 19, 2013

Oscar Predictions October 2013

The film festivals of the Summer have ended (TIFF, Venice, Cannes), and the Oscar friendly fall has begun.  Now that I have seen quite a few contenders for this years Oscars, and the word is out on many others time to update my own August predictions.  The big question, how much is there to change ?

Gravity is a hit with critics, and at the box office, same for Captain Phillips.  Lee Daniel's The Butler did well at the box office, and while middling with critics has the elements of a good film.  Fruitvale Station reminds me of Beasts of the Southern, new director does good, lots of emotional impact, and I can't see them ignoring the film.

What about the new surprises in both picture, and acting?  The Secret Life of Walter Mitty could be the heartfelt film which sneaks into the race, but the second trailer looks off putting.  Her was recently seen, but Spike Jonez films never get the respect they deserve, but are also rarely ignored.  Dallas Buyers Club has been seen by many, and the performances of Matthew McConaughey, and Jared Leto are perfect Oscar bait roles.  Can newcomer Barkhad Abdi score a nomination for Captain Phillips?  Will Tom Hanks be a double nominee?  Is Saving Mr. Banks or American Hustle going to be good?

Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle

August: Osage County
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lee Daniel's The Butler


At the moment I would only swap Captain Phillips for Blue Jasmine, I think Jasmine will have to settle for Actress and Screenplay.  I am keeping in American Hustle, but think this could be just popcorn fun.  Everyone has Wolf of Wall Street in the mix, but i am convinced its moving to 2014.  Outside shots at the moment are Saving Mr. Banks and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.

Best Director
Lee Daniels-Lee Daniel's The Butler

Paul Greengrass-Captain Phillips
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen-12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell- American Hustle

Greengrass, and McQueen are in!  They were not in my August predictions but they will be nominated.  I think the fifth spot is going to go for either the fresh new Ryan Coogler, or Lee Daniels for The Butler, at the moment I am going to go for Daniels; he is a past Oscar nominee, and the film has the edge of Fruitvale.

Best Actor 
Bruce Dern- Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor- 12 Years a Slave

Tom Hanks-Captain Phillips
Robert Redford- All Is Lost
Forrest Whitaker-Lee Daniel's The Butler 

The toughest category to predict, and I change my predictions almost daily.  Can McConaughey be taken seriously enough?  I have this feeling, and its an eerie one that he still may not be, because of his hunk theory (Tom O'Neil) or "slap the stud." At the moment I am going to stick with Whitaker, the past Oscar winner.  

Best Actress 
Cate Blanchett- Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock-Gravity
Judi Dench- Philomena

Meryl Streep- August: Osage County
Emma Thompson-Saving Mr. Banks

Easier than Best Actor because of the lack of lead performances in contention, but Amy Adams could sneak into this category.  I think Thompson is going to come back and join the Oscars (watch out for this film).

Best Supporting Actor 

Barkhad Abdi-Captain Phillips
Michael Fassbender- 12 Years a Slave

John Goodman-Inside Llewyn Davis
Tom Hanks- Saving Mr. Banks

Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club

I think Leto is the nominee for Buyers Club, Hanks could be swapped out with Harrison Ford in 42.  If Fassbender does not campaign can he get in?  This is my changed up list.

Best Supporting Actress 
Amy Adams-American Hustle 
Margo Martindale-August: Osage County
Lupita Nyongo-12 Years a Slave
Octavia Spencer-Fruitvale Station
Oprah Winfrey-Lee Daniel's The Butler

I think Adams will go down to supporting, character actress Margo Martindale will sneak in over Roberts.  The rest seems safe bets minus Octavia Spencer, but she is great.

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine

Fruitvale Station
Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave
August: Osage County
Before Midnight

Captain PhillipsThe Secret Life of Walter Mitty

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