Monday, September 14, 2015

67th Annual Emmy Ceremony Predictions (2015)

2015 Emmys Emmy Awards Primetime FoxAfter the Creative Arts Emmy winners in the Guest Acting winners this past Saturday, I am starting to feel like predicting these winners may be a moot point.  The Guest Acting winners on the Comedy side make enough sense, while the drama winners caused me to scratch my head, a lot!  The new popular ballot could make predicting these winners tricky.

Outstanding Drama Series
“Better Call Saul”
“Downton Abbey”
“Game of Thrones”
“House of Cards”
“Mad Men”
“Orange is the New Black”

Conventional wisdom would say that this will go to Mad Men.  The final season had strong reviews, and the show ended on a high note.  The one problem is the show has not won a single Emmy in the last three ceremonies.  I think it will win a couple, just not this one.

Game of Thrones is my prediction. The show won 8 at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards this past Saturday, and will most likely break the record for most Emmy Awards won by a drama series.  The West Wing has the record with 9 wins.  With the shift to a popular vote the race is between these two shows.  Thrones win in Casting (Drama) is the biggest clue from Saturday.

Will Win: Game of Thrones 
Spoiler: Mad Men

Outstanding Comedy Series
"Modern Family"
"Parks and Recreation"
"Silicon Valley"
"Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"

Modern Family will not break the record, it will have to settle for five Comedy Emmy wins.  This year there are two shows poised to de-throne this juggernaut, Veep and Transparent.  I was hoping Veep would take the prize last year, the show had its funniest season last year.  Ironically I think it will win for the weakest season.  Veep won Outstanding Casting (Comedy) on Saturday, another telling sign, especially since its rare to win that prize late in the game.

Transparent did well at the Creative Arts ceremony, winning 3 awards, including Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy. This win shows that Transparent has support, and while I think Transparent could spoil here, I think Transparent will win for Lead Actor and Comedy Directing.

Will Win: Veep 
Spoiler: Transparent

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series 
Claire Danes, “Homeland”
Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”
Tatiana Maslany, “Orphan Black”
Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men”
Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

I think there are three women who have strong chances to win this prize, Davis, Henson, and Wright. Davis is out front; she won the SAG  prize this past year, she is two time Oscar nominee, and her performance is stellar.  Henson's show came out late, and she had a lot of support from critics, but the Emmy Awards did not get on the Empire train.  Henson's character is larger than life, and unforgettable.  Wright should have won the trophy last year, but she submitted poorly.  This year Wright supported, correctly, and her show has way more support than the other two combined.

If Davis or Henson do win, they will make history.  No black woman has ever won this prize.  I think this historical moment will be hard to ignore, and they will pick one of these women, both deserve the prize.

Will Win: Viola Davis, “How to Get Away with Murder”
Very Close 2nd: Robin Wright, “House of Cards”
Spoiler: Taraji P. Henson, “Empire”

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series 
Kyle Chandler, “Bloodline”
Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom”
Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Liev Schreiber, “Ray Donovan”
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”

Will John Hamm follow in the foot steps of Steve Carell and Martin Sheen?  Both men never won for their iconic roles.  The fact that Hamm has not won for playing Don Draper is a crime, and I am predicting him, but watch out for two smaller suspects in this category.

I think most would say the closest competition is Kevin Spacey, but I think its Bob Odenkirk and Kyle Chandler are the bigger spoilers.  Better Call Saul appears to have lots of residual Breaking Bad love, and Odenkirk could bank roll this popularity.  Chandler is a former Emmy winner, and his tape is great.  I think both of these men could take the trophy, but my gut is Hamm.

Will Win: Jon Hamm, “Mad Men”
Spoiler: Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series 
Anthony Anderson, "Black-ish"Don Cheadle, "House of Lies"
Louis C.K., "Louie"
Will Forte, "The Last Man on Earth"
Matt LeBlanc, "Episodes"
William H. Macy, "Shameless"
Jeffrey Tambor, "Transparent"

If you asked me before Saturday, I would have Tambor was a strong bet, but because the role isn't actually funny, I thought he had more competition.  I think it seems like Transparent has the most support, especially with Whitford's win.  I think the only spoiler could be past Emmy winner William H. Macy, but it's Tambor's time.

Will Win: Jeffrey Tambor, "Transparent"
Spoiler: William H. Macy, "Shameless"

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy 
Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
Lisa Kudrow, "The Comeback"
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"
Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"
Amy Schumer, "Inside Amy Schumer"
Lily Tomlin, "Grace and Frankie"

My mind wants to think this is more competitive than it is, but my gut tells me Julia Louis-Dreyfus will take this prize again, easily.

I do think think there are other option that should be explored.  I think the strongest spoiler is Amy Schumer, but I also think they may honor her in Outstanding Variety Sketch, and think that win is enough.  Schumer like Melissa McCarthy is all over the place from movies to specials, and that helped bump McCarthy to a win.

I think the third main contender is Amy Poehler; she has never won for this role, and Parks and Recreation was the surprise 7th nominee in Outstanding Comedy Series, which shows more popularity than expected.  I am going to go on the ledge for this one....

Will Win: Amy Poehler, "Parks and Recreation"
Very Close 2nd: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep"
Spoiler: Amy Schumer, "Inside Amy Schumer"

Supporting Actress Drama: Uzo Aduba-Orange is the New Black
Supporting Actor Drama: Jonathan Banks-Better Call Saul
Supporting Actor Comedy: Titus Burgess-Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt 
Supporting Actress Comedy: Anna Chlumsky-Veep
Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series: Mother's Mercy-Game of Thrones
Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series: Person to Person-Mad Men
Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series: Best New Girl-Transparent
Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series: Election Night-Veep
Outstanding Limited Series: Olive Kitteridge
Outstanding Lead Actress Limited/Movie: Frances McDormand-Olive Kitteridge
Outstanding Lead Actor Limited/Movie: David Oyelowo-Nightengale
Outstanding Supporting Actress Limited/Movie-Sarah Paulson-Freak Show
Outstanding Supporting Actor Limited/Movie-Damien Lewis-Wolf Hall
Outstanding Directing Limited/Movie-Freak Show
Outstanding Writing Limited/Movie-Olive Kitteridge
Variety Talk Series-Late Show with David Letterman
Variety Sketch Series: Inside Amy Schumer 

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