Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Golden Globe Film Predictions (2015)

I would love to say I could understand the mindset of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). One of the biggest "science" to knowing this group is, does it involve a celebrity like Angelina Jolie, and then stating alright she will be nominated.  Did someone do two things? Mark Ruffalo, let's nominate him for Foxcatcher and The Normal Heart.

Sometimes their film nominees do not make the Best Picture cut, Rush (2013), The Ides of March (2011), Revolutionary Road (2008).  I do not look at the comedy/musical side.Since we moved to five plus nominees, Rush and March are the only two films that have not been nominated for Best Picture.

It's harder to figure out the acting races since they are split in two, but lets look.  In the last seven years 6 actors were not one of the 10 nominated for a Globe for Best Actor: Gary Old for Tinker Tailor Solider Spy (2011), Jeff Bridge for True Grit (2010), Javier Bardem for Biutiful (2010), Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker (2009), Richard Jenkins for The Visitor (2008), and Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah (2007) were not nominated for Golden Globes.  This is good news for lesser known actors, like Richard Jenkins, and films the Globes just do not like The Hurt Locker.  So keep your fingers crossed if your favorite did not make the cut.

On the actress side only three women have not been nominated at the Golden Globes and went on to Oscar, they were Emanuelle Riva for Amour (2012), Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild,(2012) Melissa Leo for Frozen River (2008) (technically Kate Winslet was nominated at the Globes in supporting for The Reader, but that was a rare rare occurrence.  All of these were very small independent films, which is typically not an HFPA thing, although they did nominate Greta Gerwig for Frances Ha, so maybe they are changing.

On the Supporting Actor side they always tend to throw someone unexpected in the mix, think Tom Cruise in Tropic Thunder, while that's rare one of their choices who does not make the Oscars cut is usually a big star or in a comedic film.  I will say I think they have moved away from this a tad, since they are trying to reclaim a little dignity.

On the other hand Supporting Actress has been pretty spot on, so look for this to be one of the more solid group of nominees.  There is sometimes one person left out, but they have matched pretty well lately.

Director has never lined up, I think the Globes will go for Jolie, but the Academy and DGA will not.  Watch out for a more artistic director like Fincher, Bennett Miller or Mike Leigh with the Academy,

Best Film (Drama)
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything 

Best Actor (Drama)
Steve Carell-Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch-The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal-Nightcrawler 
David Oyelowo-Selma
Eddie Redmayne-The Theory of Everything 

Best Actress (Drama)
Jennifer Aniston-Cake 
Felicity Jones-The Theory of Everything 
Julianne Moore-Still Alice 
Rosamund Pike-Gone Girl 
Reese Witherspoon-Wild 

Best Comedy/Musical
The Grand Budapest Hotel 
Into the Woods 
St. Vincent
Top Five 

Best Lead Actor (Comedy/Musical)
James Corden-Into the Woods
Ralph Fiennes-The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton-Birdman
Bill Murray-St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix-Inherent Vice 

Best Lead Actress (Comedy/Musical)
Amy Adams-Big Eyes
Emily Blunt-Into the Woods
Angelina Jolie-Maleficent 
Helen Mirren-The 100 Hundred Foot Journey
Jenny Slate-Obvious Child 

Best Supporting Actor 
Robert Duvall-The Judge
Ethan Hawke-Boyhood
Edward Norton-Birdman
Mark Ruffalo-Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons-Whiplash

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette-Boyhood
Jessica Chastain-A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightly-The Imitation Game 
Emma Stone-Birdman 
Meryl Streep-Into the Woods

Best Director 
Ava DuVerney-Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu-Birdman
Angelina Jolie-Unbroken
Richard Linklater-Boyhood 
Morten Tyldum-The Imitation Game 

Best Screenplay
Gone Girl 
The Grand Budapest Hotel 
The Imitation Game

Best Original Score 
Gone Girl 
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything 

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