I would love to say I could understand the mindset of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). One of the biggest "science" to knowing this group is, does it involve a celebrity like Angelina Jolie, and then stating alright she will be nominated. Did someone do two things? Mark Ruffalo, let's nominate him for Foxcatcher and The Normal Heart. Sometimes their film nominees do not make the Best Picture cut, Rush (2013), The Ides of March (2011), Revolutionary Road (2008). I do not look at the comedy/musical side.Since we moved to five plus nominees, Rush and March are the only two films that have not been nominated for Best Picture.
It's harder to figure out the acting races since they are split in two, but lets look. In the last seven years 6 actors were not one of the 10 nominated for a Globe for Best Actor: Gary Old for Tinker Tailor Solider Spy (2011), Jeff Bridge for True Grit (2010), Javier Bardem for Biutiful (2010), Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker (2009), Richard Jenkins for The Visitor (2008), and Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah (2007) were not nominated for Golden Globes. This is good news for lesser known actors, like Richard Jenkins, and films the Globes just do not like The Hurt Locker. So keep your fingers crossed if your favorite did not make the cut.
On the actress side only three women have not been nominated at the Golden Globes and went on to Oscar, they were Emanuelle Riva for Amour (2012), Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild,(2012) Melissa Leo for Frozen River (2008) (technically Kate Winslet was nominated at the Globes in supporting for The Reader, but that was a rare rare occurrence. All of these were very small independent films, which is typically not an HFPA thing, although they did nominate Greta Gerwig for Frances Ha, so maybe they are changing.
On the Supporting Actor side they always tend to throw someone unexpected in the mix, think Tom Cruise in Tropic Thunder, while that's rare one of their choices who does not make the Oscars cut is usually a big star or in a comedic film. I will say I think they have moved away from this a tad, since they are trying to reclaim a little dignity.
On the other hand Supporting Actress has been pretty spot on, so look for this to be one of the more solid group of nominees. There is sometimes one person left out, but they have matched pretty well lately.
Director has never lined up, I think the Globes will go for Jolie, but the Academy and DGA will not. Watch out for a more artistic director like Fincher, Bennett Miller or Mike Leigh with the Academy,
Best Film (Drama)
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Best Actor (Drama)
Steve Carell-Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch-The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal-Nightcrawler
David Oyelowo-Selma
Eddie Redmayne-The Theory of Everything
Best Actress (Drama)
Jennifer Aniston-Cake
Felicity Jones-The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore-Still Alice
Rosamund Pike-Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon-Wild
Best Comedy/Musical
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
St. Vincent
Top Five
Best Lead Actor (Comedy/Musical)
James Corden-Into the Woods
Ralph Fiennes-The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton-Birdman
Bill Murray-St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix-Inherent Vice
Best Lead Actress (Comedy/Musical)
Amy Adams-Big Eyes
Emily Blunt-Into the Woods
Angelina Jolie-Maleficent
Helen Mirren-The 100 Hundred Foot Journey
Jenny Slate-Obvious Child
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall-The Judge
Ethan Hawke-Boyhood
Edward Norton-Birdman
Mark Ruffalo-Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons-Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette-Boyhood
Jessica Chastain-A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightly-The Imitation Game
Emma Stone-Birdman
Meryl Streep-Into the Woods
Best Director
Ava DuVerney-Selma
Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu-Birdman
Angelina Jolie-Unbroken
Richard Linklater-Boyhood
Morten Tyldum-The Imitation Game
Best Screenplay
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Best Original Score
Gone Girl
Interstellar
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
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