Somewhere in a high tower
I imagine Harvey Weinstein is looking into a cauldron, and cackling. The
Weinstein Company did exceptionally well
today, their film The Imitation Game has 3, including Best Ensemble, Actor (Benedict
Cumberbatch), and Supporting Actress (Keira Knightly).
I make this joke because
Harvey just has a way of making these types of films happen during the award
season, although that was not the case last year. Somehow Harvey got voters to nominate Naomi
Watts in Supporting for St. Vincent instead of Birdman.
That did not stop Birdman
as the highest nominated film for this award show with 4 nominations, including
Ensemble, Lead Actor (Michael Keaton), Supporting Actor (Edward Norton), and
Supporting Actress (Emma Stone).
Watts nomination was not
the only surprise. Jennifer Aniston’s
Lead Actress nomination came out of the clear blue, it’s a performance I know
she has been talking up, but no one else had been talking much about her. The other surprise was Jake Gyllenhaal’s
nomination for Nightcrawler, this is a great performance, and I hope he gets a
Globe nod too tomorrow. Many will say
Duvall was a surprise in Supporting Actor, but he has won his category before,
and been nominated as individual performer 5 other times, pretty predictable.
In the ensemble category
the biggest surprise was The Grand Budapest Hotel nomination, it surely
replaced Into the Woods as “we have a lot of stars” but earned this nomination,
and was huge treat. Wes Anderson always
has great casts, but this is his first film nominated in this category.
The fifth slot in this
ensemble category was a toss-up, I had Selma, but like true Americans they had
a hard on for a story about a British genius, The Theory of Everything. This is the film to watch out for, not Imitation
Game, by the way! Theory tied Imitation Game, and Boyhood with 3 nominations each.
So what does this mean
for Oscar? This is the first of the
guild nominations, and can be a good predictor.
Aside from the category analysis the SAG Awards have become less reliable
in the last few years, with nominations, namely because if the voting body did
not get the screener they did not vote for it.
This is why you see a lack of Selma, Unbroken, and other late release
films, so keep that in mind. There is an analysis under every nominated
category below:
Outstanding
Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Steve
Carell as John du Pont – “Foxcatcher”
Benedict
Cumberbatch as Alan Turing – “The Imitation Game”
Jake
Gyllenhaal as Louis Bloom – “Nightcrawler”
Michael
Keaton as Riggan – “BIRDMAN”
Eddie
Redmayne as Stephen Hawking – “The Theory of Everything”
3 of these men have Oscar nominations, Keaton,
Cumberbatch, and Redmayne. Carell and
Gyllenhaal are vulnerable still, but this could be the final five. Watch out for Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner and
David Oyelowo in Selma. I think Oyelowo
will replace someone.
Outstanding
Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jennifer
Aniston as Claire Bennett – “Cake”
Felicity
Jones as Jane Hawking – “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne
Moore as Alice Howland-Jones – “Still Alice”
Rosamund
Pike as Amy Dunne – “Gone Girl”
Resse
Witherspoon as Cheryl Strayed – “Wild”
Aniston threw me, I was half expecting Amy Adams,
for Big Eyes or Hilary Swank for The Homesman.
I am not sure what to make of Aniston’s nomination at the moment, I do
not think she will make the final five at Oscar, I think Marion Cotillard will
replace her.
Outstanding
Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Robert
Duvall as Joseph Palmer – “The Judge”
Ethan
Hawke as Mason, Sr. – “Boyhood”
Edward
Norton as Mike – “Birdman”
Mark
Ruffalo as Dave Schultz – “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons
as Fletcher – “Whiplash”
This could be the final five at the Oscars, but
Duvall is vulnerable. Watch out for Josh
Brolin for Inherent Vice, Tom Wilkinson in Selma, and a few others.
Outstanding
Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Patricia
Arquette as Olivia – “Boyhood”
Keira
Knightly as Joan Clarke – “The Imitation Game ”
Emma
Stone as Sam – “Birdman”
Meryl
Streep as The Witch – “Into the Woods”
Naomi
Watts as Daka – “St. Vincent”
Watts like her Australian counterpart Nicole Kidman
in The Paperboy will not be nominated for the Oscar; she will most likely be
replaced by Jessica Chastain, for A Most Violent Year, which the group had not
seen. Watts could also score a
nomination for Birdman over Stone.
Outstanding
Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand
Budapest Hotel
The Imitation
Game
The Theory
of Everything
These five films could be Oscar nominees, I think four are safe
bets. If Grand Budapest gets this, and a
PGA, it’s on even further solid ground.
Since no Wes Anderson film has gotten a nomination at SAG, I would add it
to your Oscar top 9.
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