Now that most of the critics groups have had their say,
through awards and top ten lists, and the Screen Actor’s Guild (SAG), and
Golden Globe Nominations have been announced, its time to get in some updated
Oscar predictions before the end of the year.
This is a moderately outdated list, because the last time I
gathered my thoughts or predictions in blog form was back on September 19. Ironically I think I was pretty astute, and
there are only a few changes I am going to make, but here it goes!
Best Picture
1- Boyhood
2- Selma
3-The Theory of
Everything
4- Birdman
5- The
Imitation Game
6-Gone Girl
7-The Grand
Budapest Hotel
8-Whiplash
9-Unbroken
For some reason
I had Foxcatcher in the number one spot, that seemed like a strong bet at the
time, and even with three Golden Globe nominations, I think this is a film that
will get snubbed by the Academy, I dropped it out of my top nine. I also dropped, Wild and Interstellar out of
my top nine, the rest stay.
Two films entering
my predictions are Selma, and Whiplash.
I think these are two films that will be well received, and they have
tremendous impact.
The big problem
is the ninth slot. the gutsy person inside of me wants to predict Nightcrawler,
while the practical person in me wants to predict Unbroken. I am going practical for now, but I think
Nightcrawler is a spoiler.
Best Director
1-Richard
Linklater-Boyhood
2-Alejandro
González Iñárritu-Birdman
3-Ava
DuVerney-Selma
4- Wes
Anderson-The Grand Budapest Hotel
5-David
Fincher-Gone Girl
I would love to
see Bennett Miller recognized for Foxcatcher his direction is visionary, but he
and James Marsh were bumped from my top five.
Wes Anderson
may finally get some recognition from this group, many people are not predicting
him, but I think based on the likeability of this film within SAG, and at the
Globes he is in! Ava DuVerney for Selma
will also make the cut.
I kept Fincher
in my top five, but he may be vulnerable to the Weinstein Co.’s push for
Imitation Game director Morton Tyldum.
Best Actor
1-Michael
Keaton-Birdman
2-Eddie
Redmayne-The Theory of Everything
3-David
Oyelowo-Selma
4-Jake
Gyllenhaal-Nightcrawler
5-Benedict
Cumberatch-The Imitation Game
Foxcatcher is
bumped again! Jake Gyllenhaal is the new man on the list, and with nominations
at SAG and the GG he looks unstoppable.
I know Carell has this too, but he was snubbed by the Broadcast Film
Critics, which are good predictors of the acting races.
Best Actress
1-Julianne
Moore-Still Alice
2-Reese
Witherspoon-Wild
3-Rosamund
Pike-Gone Girl
4-Felicity
Jones-They Theory of Everything
5-Marion
Cotillard-Two Days, One Night
I know betting
against Anniston may not be a smart move here, but I think Harvey will back a
play for Cotillard to get a nomination here.
I will re-visit this.
Best Supporting
Actor
1- J.K.
Simmons-Whiplash
2-Edward
Norton-Birdman
3-Mark
Ruffalo-Foxcatcher
4-Ethan
Hawke-Boyhood
5-Tom
Wilkinson-Selma
Keeping this
list the same, for the moment, may switch Wilkinson with DuVall for The Judge,
the Academy loves crap like that.
Best Supporting
Actress
1-Patricia
Arquette-Boyhood
2-Jessica
Chastain-A Most Violent Year
3-Emma
Stone-Birdman
4-Keira
Knightly-The Imitation Game
5-Meryl
Streep-Into the Woods
Sorry folks, Dern
is out, I also must have been obsessed with Foxcatcher because I had Redgrave
in the fifth spot.
There is Jessica
Chastain fever; she will be an Oscar nominee for A Most Violent Year. Streep will also be nominated for Into the
Woods, musicals tend to get a token Supporting Actress nomination, even when
the Academy is not gaga for the film.
Best Adapted Screenplay
1-The Theory of Everything
2-Gone Girl
3-The Imitation Game
4-Inherent Vice
5-Unbroken
If Unbroken gets a Best Picture nomination it will land here, it also has Joel and Ethan Coens' names attached. The spoiler is Wild, which could replace Unbroken or Inherent Vice.
Best Original Screenplay
1-Boyhood
2-Birdman
3-The Grand Budapest Hotel
4-Selma
5-Whiplash
One of the strongest categories at this year's ceremony, Selma and Whiplash could replaced, if they are not nominated prior to the Best Picture category, watch out for Whiplash to be potentially snubbed, and Selma to be a non contender. Next in line is Nightcrawler followed by Foxcatcher.