Saturday, March 1, 2014

Academy Award Week 2014: Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
The Wolf of Wall Street
12 Years a Slave 

See my analysis here:

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave 
Spoiler (s): Gravity followed by American Hustle

Best Actor 
Christian Bale-American Hustle 
Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club
Bruce Dern-Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio-The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor-12 Years a Slave 

See my analysis here:

Will Win: Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyer Club
Spoiler (s): Chiwetel Ejiofor followed by Leonard DiCaprio

Best Actress 
Amy Adams-American Hustle 
Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine 
Sandra Bullock-Gravity
Judi Dench-Philomena
Meryl Streep-August: Osage County

As much as this could have been a contest, Dench has never won a leading actress Oscar, and Adams has never won an Oscar, Blanchett has never lost the momentum.

Will Win: Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine 
Spoiler(s): (not needed) Amy Adams and Judi Dench

Best Supporting Actor 
Barkhad Abdi-Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper-American Hustle 
Michael Fassbender-12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill-The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club

There has never been much of a race, Leto has dominated this award the way people believe McConaughey has (which he has not).  Leto has really only lost BAFTA.  Another semi-easy win to predict.

Will Win: Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club
Spoiler(s): Barhad Abdi

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins-Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence-American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave 
Julia Roberts-August: Osage County
June Squibb-Nebraska 

There are strong possibilities for upsets in this category, and Lead Actor, but surprises happen way more often here than in Lead Actor.  Past surprises were Judi Dench (Shakespeare in Love), Marcia Gay Harden (Pollock), and Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton).  At the moment this is race between Nyong'o and Lawrence.  Lawrence has the Globe, and BAFTA.  Nyong'o has SAG.  SAG and BAFTA matter more, they each have constituents who vote at the Oscars.  I believe Lawrence won at BAFTA because she did not win last year.  My money is on Nyong'o but never count out Squibb, she is fire cracker, and if enough people liked Nebraska they may vote for her.

Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years a Slave
Spoiler(s): Jennifer Lawrence followed by June Squibb

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron-Gravity 
Steve McQueen-12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne-Nebraska
David O. Russell-American Hustle 
Martin Scorsese-The Wold of Wall Street

No question, Cuaron wins this in a cake walk

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron-Gravity 
Spoiler: Steve McQueen-12 Years a Slave 

Best Original Screenplay-Her (American Hustle is VERY close)
Best Adapted Screenplay-12 Years a Slave (Philomena is VERY close)
Best Documentary Feature: 20 Feet from Stardom
Best Foreign Language Feature: The Great Beauty
Best Animated Feature: Frozen
Best Cinematography: Gravity 
Best Costume Design: The Great Gatsby 
Best Film Editing: Captain Phillips
Best Production Design: The Great Gatsby
Best Makeup/Hair Styling-Dallas Buyers Club
Best Original Score: Gravity
Best Original Song: Frozen-"Let it Go"
Best Sound Editing: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing: Gravity
Best Visual Effects: Gravity 
Best Animated Short: Get a Horse  
Best Documentary Short: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved my Life
Best Live Action Short: Helium 

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