Saturday, September 21, 2013

Emmy Week (2013) Predicting the Winners

Outstanding Drama Series 
Breaking Bad 
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
House of Cards 
Mad Men

Who Should Win:  My pick for "should" this year would be Game of Thrones, it was the most consistent of the six series.  Bad's season 5.1 was great but part of a build and would be number two.  Homeland  would be third.

Who Will Win: This is a race between last years winner Homeland and Breaking Bad.  Bad has the luck of airing its last and final part of its season during the voting, and this season has been heavily acclaimed.  I would argue that that factor puts Breaking Bad as the winner.  Homeland is a close second the show has the government clout factor, and proved itself last year.  Game of Thrones would be higher (most nominations) but it floundered at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards.

Outstanding Comedy Series 
The Big Bang Theory
Modern Family 
30 Rock 

Who Should Win:  This would be down to Louie or The Big Bang Theory for me, with Louie on top.  Louie has never been better, and while i liked season two better there is something about the different story arcs in season three which sold this show.  The Big Bang Theory would be second, the show has not only found a groove, but never let is characters grow tired.  Veep would be third, the show is hilarious.

Who Will Win:  Will Louie break the model of winners?  Will Modern Family win a fourth award in this category?  Is there a swell of sentimental support for 30 Rock?  Can Big Bang Theory finally take the top prize?  I have to say that all signs point to Modern Family for the four-peat, and I think its going to be the winner plain and simple.  I would argue that any of the other three could win, and that my hunch of 30 Rock winning here could happen, but for the moment I will stick with my gut and pick Modern Family.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Hugh Bonneville-Downton Abbey
Bryan Cranston-Breaking Bad 
Jeff Daniels-The Newsroom
John Hamm-Mad Men
Damien Lewis-Homeland
Kevin Spacey-House of Cards 

Who Should Win: My pick for this year would be Kevin Spacey in House of Cards, while its not the popular choice when he breaks the fourth wall, and with his accent, but he was fantastic.

Who Will Win:  Damien Lewis versus Bryan Cranston, I have been back and forth on these men.  At the moment I have Cranston, but I also do not think they are going to pick him for a fourth this year, and Lewis is amazing in his submitted episode Q&A.  This is one of the tougher categories to predict, because tape matters here typically in the past.  No one picked Kyle Chandler to win for Friday Night Lights.  Could John Hamm finally win?  In his tape Don Draper is broken down more than ever, could people finally recognize him?  Spacey is the biggest spoiler in my book; he is a two time Oscar winner, and Cards is clearly well liked winning two Creative Arts Emmy Awards. At the end of this I am going to pick, Kevin Spacey, just a hunch.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin-30 Rock 
Jason Bateman-Arrested Development
Don Cheedle-House of Lies
Louis C.K.-Louie
Matt LeBlanc-Episodes
Jim Parsons-The Big Bang Theory

Who Should Win:  Louis C.K. story arc where he was looking for the next woman in his life, and attempting to take on the late show are proof that this man is more than just a great stand up comedian and writer he has the chops to carry great material.

Who Will Win: Baldwin's tape is weak, but he is beloved.  Louis C.K. has the best tape, but this categories history proves that C.K. can be admired but more as a writer.  Parsons tape is solid, and I think he will win for a third time.  My predicted winner is Jim Parsons in The Big Bang Theory.  Any of the of the other two men could spoil.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series 
Connie Britton-Nashville 
Claire Danes-Homeland
Michelle Dockery-Downton Abbey
Elisabeth Moss-Mad Men
Vera Farmiga-Bate's Motel
Kerry Washington-Scandal
Robin Wright-House of Cards

Who Should Win:  While Farmiga is good in Bate's Motel, the show is crap.  I think of these seven women the winner should be Claire Danes from Homeland.

Who Will Win:  Danes has the prestige factor, as does Farmiga, both are highly acclaimed performers. While the third person who has a shot at this is Kerry Washington who is a good actress and has the 'it' factor.  I could see any of these three women winning here, but I think that Q&A is one of the most admired tapes this year, and that Claire Danes will pull off a second win.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Laura Dern-Enlightened
Julia Louis-Dreyfuss-Veep
Lena Dunham-Girls
Edie Falco-Nurse Jackie 
Tina Fey-30 Rock
Amy Poehler-Parks and Recreation

Who Should Win: Amy Poehler submitted her best tapes; she is hilarious, and I am shocked that she has never won this award, its time for her to win this award.

Who Will Win: Fey, Poehler, and Louis Dreyfuss are the comedic geniuses of the moment.  This award is also between the three of them. I could see Fey winning because of sentiment, but I also think she is in third place at the moment.  Can Poehler finally win?  She has the tape, it's a long two parter where she gets married, and "huggable."  While I have moved Poehler up in my predictions as the spoiler I still think the winner will be Julia Louis Dreyfuss for Veep.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series 
Jonathan Banks-Breaking Bad 
Bobby Cannavale-Boardwalk Empire 
Jim Carter-Downton Abbey
Peter Dinklage-Game of Thrones
Mandy Patinkin-Homeland
Aaron Paul-Breaking Bad

Who Should Win: The winner should be Mandy Patinkin, Saul is the heart of the show and provides the right level of support needed to further Homeland to be a great show.

Who Will Win: I have had this gut reaction ever since the nominations were announced that Bobby Cannavale would win this award.  Part of the reason is because his role is showy and he is one of the only major nominations remaining for this series.  Paul repeated, and is one of four men to win this award twice, no person has won this category three times it could be him.  Many people are predicting Patinkin for this, because of his prestige factor, but he was not nominated last year, surprisingly.  I am going to go with Mandy Patinkin, but gut is saying Bobby Cannavale, we will see.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Ty Burrell-Modern Family
Bill Hader-Saturday Night Live
Tony Hale-Veep
Adam Driver-Girls
Jesse Tyler Ferguson-Modern Family
Ed O'Neil-Modern Family

Who Should Win: Tony Hale from Veep would get my vote; he has created some memorable funny supporting roles throughout the year, and I love that he his work on Veep this season; he was great.

Who Will Win:  Flip a coin on one of the Modern Family men.  I think this year its between Ed O'Neil (who would take home his first trophy), and Ty Burrell.  While Hader could have been a slam dunk with his swan song episode he submitted badly.  At the end of the day my money is on Ty Burrell his tape is hilarious, but beware of the should win spoiler Tony Hale.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series 
Morena Baccarin-Homeland 
Christine Baranski-The Good Wife
Emilia Clarke-Game of Thrones 
Anna Gunn-Breaking Bad 
Christina Hendricks-Mad Men
Maggie Smith-Downton Abbey

Who Should Win: Anna Gunn may be hated by many as Skylar White, but he character has developed into something much more like able, and understanding.  Gunn's walk into the pool was haunting and she should win this prize.

Who Will Win:  Anna Gunn is is going to win this prize, but never rule out Dame Maggie Smith who is one of the most liked characters on this series; she is the character people talk about the most, and she has the prestige to back her up, never count her out, but I do think that Gunn is going to win this award this year.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series 
Mayim Bialik-The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen-Modern Family 
Anna Chlumsky-Veep
Jane Krakowski-30 Rock 
Jane Lynch-Glee
Sofia Vergara-Modern Family 
Merrit Wever-Nurse Jackie

Who Should Win: This is probably the weakest category in all of the acting nominees (minus guest) this year.  Of these nominees the winner should be Anna Chlumsky she has done a great job evolving the character of Amy.

Who Will Win:  While I would love to see Jane Krakowski win this award I believe Julie Bowen is on for a three-peat; she is well liked, and that is a traditional pattern within this category, so why break tradition.

Best Directing in a Comedy Series-Louie-Daddy's Girlfriend
Best Directing in a Drama Series-Breaking Bad-Gliding Over All
Best Writing in a Comedy Series-30 Rock-Last Lunch
Best Writing in a Drama Series-Homeland-Q& A
Outstanding Mini-Series/Movie-Behind the Candelabra
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Mini-Series/Movie-Michael Douglas-Behind the Candelabra
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Mini-Series/Movie-Jessica Lange-American Horror Story: Asylum
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Mini-Series/Movie-Scott Bakula-Behind the Candelabra
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Mini-Series/Movie-Sarah Paulson-American Horror Story: Asylum

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